Member Info for wwguk

Chesh, thanks for your example.

I have uploaded the monthly chart to the image sharing site (imgur) as below:
https://community.imgur.com/t/monthly-chart-19-march-2019/69046?u=wwguk

The signs (particularly the golden cross in the oversold area (i.e. below 20) of the Full STO, the cup histogram below zero line in the MACD chart, and the Hammer pattern in the share price candlestick chart, as mentioned in my previous post) can be seen in this image.

You can look at the past 6 occurrences of the similar pattern (e.g., the golden cross at or below the 20 line in the Full STO) to judge if the call has a basis or not.

Chesh, thanks for your link and the pic.

I did not mean short term bottom as shown in your pic. I mean the bottom of the long term trend (that lasted for more than six months). This is much more important than the short term trend.

Chesh: "not the first time I've ask you politely......:)"

I did not ignore your message. Actually I have received your message immediately, See my "21 Feb '19" post, parts of my reply repeated below:

This board is textual, I have no easy way to post pics. However, I have provided parameters for those charts and they can be reproduced in many other online stock charting tools.

There are also many free charts available, e.g.,
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/charts?s=SXX:LSE

For example, for see that long term trends and their turning points, one can choose 5Y and (Lower) Stochastic.
A chart with the golden cross in the oversold area can be seen (for this share, this sign had appeared more than 6 times, and in almost all instances, a strong reversal happened with an uptrend lasted for multiple months).

Paaa, I agree what you said. A better tittle should be "Bottom called".

To call a bottom in a downtrend is not easy, and maybe error-prone. I have tried to provide as more evidence as possible in my previous post. Other people have also provided such evidence, such as the divergence of MOMNTM and share price as shown in their line graphs (https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/chart-week-are-buyers-control-sirius-minerals-ii507903)

Paaa, The SM share price has been in a downtrend for more than six months. IMO, a reversal is going to happen as the monthly and weekly charts have shown that such downtrend seems to be bottomed and a new uptrend is emerging.

Chesh and tasteforlife: "I didnt get a word of that......lol"

I agree what you said. Easy to understand and concise textual interpretation of the charts is not easy to write. There are many automatically generated lengthy reports on technical analysis with detailed descriptions of the indications or chart patterns, but they are also often tedious to read.

I believe that the Charts have called a SM share price bottom, supported by lots of golden crosses and bullish patterns in multiple charts. The charts can be found online. The definitions and interpretation of the charts (e.g., Full STO, MACD, PMO, SAR and candlestick) can be checked up easily using Google search.

Monthly (long-term indications):
- Full STO %K(14,3) (black line), %D(3)(red line): 7.57, 7.11; an oversold (when below 20) and bottoming indication (when the back crosses the red from below); Now, the black has moved up from 5.8 to 7.57, and cross the red at 7.17; When both the black and the red move above 20, the trend will be further confirmed (but by then a big jump would has already happened).
- candlestick Hammer pattern appeared (a short body with a long lower wick), which is a bullish reversal pattern, indicating the down-trend is over and a new up-trend starts; and
- MACD (12, 26, 9): its accompany histogram shows a cup bottom below the baseline (another bottoming indication).

Weekly (medium-term indications):
- MACD had a black to red upwards crossover below the baseline (an up indication);
- Full STO had a black to red crossover and moved above the oversold line at 20;
- PMO(35,20,10): -8.20, -7.67. The black to red crossover has not happened, but can be considered as emerging (as the chart with the given parameters provides a slightly lagging indicator on trend change);
- candlestick Hammer pattern appeared a few day ago: a short WHITE/hollow body with a VERY long lower wick, which indicates a powerful reversal from the bottom; and
- a W shaped bottom emerging on the stock price (short period moving average) lines, which is another bottom indication.

Daily (short-term indications):
- MACD had a black to red upwards crossover;
- Full STO had a black to red upwards crossover, and both black and red move from around 20 to 54 and 37 (with 20 as oversold and 80 as overbought lines);
- PMO had a black to red upwards crossover;
- a candlestick: Three White Soldiers pattern (each of the three candles opens and closes progressively higher than the previous day) emerged on the third day and but failed to happen at the close; which shows that the up movement in short term is not very strong.
- SAR (Stop And Reverse) shows an uptrend (continuously in past four days)

Overall:
The bottoming signs in both the long and medium charts have appeared after a long period of a downtrend, and the uptrend sign is starting to emerge. The short term indicators also show a trend change, although the signs are not very strong (i.e., no big jump immediately). The combination of the three charts (especially the first two) calls a bottom and signals the start of a new multi-month up-moving trend.

This is not a buy or sell recommendation — all IMO of course (12:40GMT, intraday 19 March 2019).

As described by Myo, now more detailed, latest information on the construction progress (including latest photos, photos in previous months, and latest flyover video) can be found by clicking on the PROJECT LATEST button on the company home page, which points to the interactive map page:

https://map.siriusminerals.com/

Lots of details have not been reported on social media channels, therefore, it is worth to have a look here from time to time (i.e., the interactive map now provides LIVE updates!).

The engineering work on the TBM assembly and launch at the Wilton site seems to be quite sophisticated, needs a lot of space and pre-installed launching structure. To do all these in the other two sides through a small hole of the TBM access shafts must be much more difficult than that on the Wilton site. The following video may show something similar on how these can be done:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoxgyUFEiXE

There could be better videos on how this. Has anyone got better links on this?

I saw the text of JP Morgan Gaz comments on the Alternative offer in
uk.advfb.com (waterloo01 - 12 Mar 2019 - 11:32:19 - 37145 of 37247) who mentioned that the comments were made on FTalphaville, i.e., the source information from which a reporter wrote a news piece (that I posted in previous post). I noted that JP Morgan called the new backer a mystery party, rather than private backer:

"It's interesting that a path to avoid the government-backstopped development cash can be pitched as a positive. Because it seems to be opposite to quite a lot of Sirius's lobbying over the years regarding northern powerhouse and that kind of stuff. Anyway, if mystery party fronts up enough cash to avoid the $0.6-0.7bn uncovered bond, $1.5bn commercial bank tranche, and) $0.8-0.9bn IPA guarantee then you have to assume they'll want some serious skin in return."

The "private" modifier much be added by the reporter (with or without a ground). Given the following two large global Institutions have bought more Sirius's shares (i.e., shown their interest to Sirius):

Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. 327m
HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 121m

Is there a chance that the new backer is one of them?

Yuen Low, analyst at Shore Capital, has a standard paragraph (that he has used repeatedly over dozens of times) that I can also repeat without looking at the text :) "All things considered, while Sirius is currently at development stage and still some years from becoming a cash flow-generating company, we believe that an investment in Sirius should become progressively de-risked and enjoy significant value uplift as it advances towards production."

However, this time (see article in proactiveinvestors, 13 March), his comments on the Alternative Proposal are more detailed containing a re-rated stock price projection (50p) after the stage 2 close and a 13.5 x current MC projection (US$18bn) over next few years:

Yuen Low, analyst at Shore Capital, in a note, said: “If all goes to plan, Sirius’s US$3.4bn to US$3.6bn Stage 2 financing will be successfully completed over the coming weeks.

“We expect this seminal achievement to catalyse a major re-rating of the shares, as it is effectively the key to unlocking Sirius’s vast value potential.”

Specifically, the Shore Capital analyst gives Sirius a 50p per share valuation (risked net present value) post-financing, versus a current share price just below 20p.

“Beyond that, while Sirius would still be some years from becoming cash generative, an investment in the company should become progressively de-risked and enjoy significant value uplift as it advances towards production, we believe,” Low added.

The analyst highlighted comparisons to sector peers and suggested that as Sirius approaches full production from the Yorkshire mine, it should upgrade significantly, to potentially have a market value of some US$18bn - based on an enterprise value to earnings (EV/EBITDA) rating of around x11).

Moreover, he asserts: “In other words, we see c.13.5x upside to the current market cap over the next few years.

“In our view, the current market cap also represents a material undervaluation in that, for any plausible acquirer, Sirius would not only be appreciably ‘needle-moving’ but should also improve said acquirer’s margins and EV/EBITDA rating.”

Given the current positive development, it becomes more likely that the European customer may sign the European TorP as they may have realized that now it is not the time to impose additional bargains as an offer is made from a new potential lender without its TorP and when the deal may be closed in just several weeks.

Prevost, thanks for the text. The text in your post is from another article, not an updated version of the text I posted (which came from news pieces, rather than a long article).

Milothe3rd: "where did you see the comments, could you please post the link."

https://www.ft.com/content/0d499e72-44af-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3

The key text on SM in full:

Sirius Minerals rallied to recoup most of a sharp loss in the previous session. The developer of a Yorkshire fertiliser mine said it had received a “conditional proposal” from a “major global financial institution” in respect to its targeted stage-two project financing. Sirius gave no detail beyond saying that the potential new funding line would completely replace the proposed $3bn facility it outlined in late January, which involved uncovered bonds, commercial bank debt and a state-backed loan.

“At a high level, we were sceptical of Sirius’s ability to complete the prior multi-tranche facility within both an acceptable timeframe and cost,” said JPMorgan Cazenove, which had previously argued that any high-yield bond issue would need to have an equity component. “Without seeing the detail, the proposed alternative structure seemingly mitigates these risks and at the same time simplifies the structure, which on balance is positive.”

Nevertheless, JPMorgan saw a possibility that any private backer of Sirius would still want new equity, such as via a convertible bond. Sirius has a deadline of the end of April to finalise funding.

“We think this gives some clarity around the delays in debt financing and from a top-down view looks a simpler solution with only one party to deal with. Shares should react well to the news.” LIBERUM

scotman: "Would NDB be a proper fit? Formerly Brics. Certainly the Brazilian and Chinese elements".

JP Morgan called the new backer a "private backer". JP Morgan must have known who it is. It should not be JP Morgan, as otherwise, JP Morgan would not make explicit comments on the Alternative solution and the new backer.
NDB is owned by states, i.e. NDB is not a Private one, therefore, it should not be NDB.

I saw in the past, some large private fund acquire quite big companies/projects, or take them private.
Such private funds are very powerful, and already look around for opportunities. This new backer must have visited SM a couple of weeks/months ago, and very impressed on the project and its progress on the ground (ref what the SM spokesman said on this), and therefore provided an conditional offer to provide the whole $3b debt funds. From the comments made by JP Morgan, we can infer that the new backer may want to have an equity element to go with some parts of the $3b senior debt. Therefore, a relatively large equity element might be needed in the forms of convertible bond, and/or collected in open offer and placement in the additional non-senior funding.

The FT article (https://www.ft.com/content/b95f9e9a-44ab-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3)
mentioned that some analysts think that the major global financial institution is JP Morgan.

However, in another short piece in FT (https://www.ft.com/content/0d499e72-44af-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3) , JPMorgan made comments on the LG plan, the Alternative plan, and the Major Global Financial Institution that seems not to be itself:
“At a high level, we were sceptical of Sirius’s ability to complete the prior multi-tranche facility within both an acceptable timeframe and cost,” said JPMorgan Cazenove, which had previously argued that any high-yield bond issue would need to have an equity component. “Without seeing the detail, the proposed alternative structure seemingly mitigates these risks and at the same time simplifies the structure, which on balance is positive.”
Nevertheless,.JPMorgan saw a possibility that any private backer of Sirius would still want new equity, such as via a convertible bond. Sirius has a deadline of the end of April to finalise funding.

Hopefully, in the new Alternative Proposal, the senior debt does not include convertible bond; or at least the amount of convertible bond is very limited. If the major financial institution wants new equity, it would be better for them to get it through the additional $400m-$600m money (in the form of convertible bond or placement).

The LG solution: $3b senior debt in three tranches; no target date for firm commitment; funding from a large number of different lenders organised/coordinated by the LG and SM; IPA is essential;

The Alternative solution: fully replacing the three-tranche structure; a clear target date (before the end of April); funding from one party; without the need to involve IPA.

SM points out that the Alternative solution is more flexible and attractive: More flexible for SM to accesses and uses the fund; more attractive to SM with better terms and possible lower cost. As IPA cover should be a good thing to have, if the Major Global Financial Institution does not care about it, it is very likely that it is not a U.K. based one (i.e., IPA cover may not apply to the funding from it).

Broker Liberum said: "We think this gives some clarity around the delays in debt financing from a top-down view looks a simpler solution with only one party to deal with."

House broker Shore Capital said: "All things considered, while Sirius is currently at development stage and still some years from becoming a cash flow-generating company, we believe that an investment in Sirius should become progressively de-risked and enjoy significant value uplift as it advances towards production."

Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/b95f9e9a-44ab-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3

"A spokesman said that the potential financiers had been impressed by the work done on the mine near Whitby in North Yorkshire."

“This does provide more clarity on the timing, and guidance for receiving commitments by April is a positive,” said analysts at Berenberg. “That said, more detail will be needed on the exact nature of this new funding structure.”

Fred16, due to the new development, you do need to try to prepare some money for a discounted open offer.
By the end of April, SP will have been increased greatly. If by then the share price is about 26p, and the open to existing shareholder is 21p; the new share is profitable for sure.

Many people here want to have a big discount, say to get a 15p open offer to existing shareholders only. This might be a wishful thinking, as SM has to be fair to both existing and new shareholders. If new shareholders will also get this price, then SM would have to issue more new shares unnecessarily.

In addition, our cornerstone investor (Gina) has not held any ordinary share yet, therefore, a big discount only to existing shareholders is also not fair to her.

For those people who want to have more shares, they can get the cheap shares now (the placement price, if any, should be much higher than 20p).

"The Alternative Proposal contains an alternative senior debt structure to completely replace that (three-tranche) structure". Things in () is my annotation.

The Alternative Proposal will provide funding in a form of senior debt !!!