Member Info for wwguk

"BayWa AG is a publicly-listed entity (ETR: BYW6) headquartered in Munich, Germany with revenues of EUR16bn (2018). The group distributes over 30 million tonnes per annum (“Mtpa”) of agricultural goods across Europe including sales of approximately 2.0Mtpa of fertilizers. Across Europe the group has a strong footprint and agricultural platform with strategically located assets such as warehouses, hubs and ports. BayWa is also active in developing and managing digital farming platforms to strengthen the ‘One-Stop-Shop’ strategy for farmers."

"BAST intends to actively distribute POLY4 through its Cefetra business, a well-established distributor and trader in Europe active across the agricultural value chain to the farmgate."

Poly4 can be used to replace 25% to 50% (of MOP), to reduce the overall cost and increase 4% to 17% yield:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmdGqvkgb_U

thanks verde,I tried, it should be

https://www.capitalgroup.com/institutional/investments/holdingssearch/

in the search box, enter

sirius minerals

the results:

SMALLCAP World Fund ® 191,851,849 $50,075,439.00 0.12%
New World Fund ® 27,595,843 $7,202,818.00 0.02%

The decrease from 7.48% to 7.29% (i.e., reduced 0.19%, which is about 9m shares) was made by the top shorters.
As the top shorters include SM CB holders, who may not in a hurry to reduce. The reduced are mainly those non-CB holders.

In February, there was 13.82% shorts in total; i.e., they were about 6.34% shorts (i.e., 304m borrowed shares) held by other smaller shorters. More short covering might have come and may continue to come from those smaller shorters.

jonesrichard, the text you posted was from the fastFT article. Many people have discussed it here, but it is good to see it again, particularly its heading:

"Sirius Minerals confident of securing $3bn debt package — CEO",

and its main content:

Chris Fraser said the company was Making Good Progress in the Discussions with the Unnamed Institution, believed to be JPMorgan. “We are pretty confident we will get there,” he said.

Alicia, 7.39% to 7.29% is 0.1%, i.e., Marshall brought back 4.8m shares to cover their 0.1% shorts (i.e. to return these shares to whom they borrowed from).

The shorts have increased continuously from 6.23% to 7.48% from the beginning of January to the middle of March,
then shorts started to decrease from 7.48% to 7.40%, 7.39%, 7.29% (i.e., over 9m shares from the top shorters).

The percentage, so far, is not very big; However, what is important is the change of the trend: They have started to go down! Such short covering, if continuing, will help push up the SP.

Marshall Wace LLP reduced its shorts from 0.70% to 0.69% on the 8 of April, 2019.
It was the first time when the shorts are down since the start of the year.

Marshall Wace LLP reduced much more again on the 12 April 2019, from 0.69% to 0.59%.
It is very interesting to see if the trend will continue in next few days.

https://www.ig.com/uk/investments/news/share-dealing/2019/04/15/sirius-minerals-share-price--is-it-a-zero-

For those with big money (financial institutions/banks), to find good investment opportunities (companies/project to lend the money) is also not an easy job. When the opportunities appear, they have to grab them, otherwise, other competitors may get them. For SM, although the IPA cover has not been used in the Alternative Proposal, the IPA offer is still there to support other potential offers from the bank group (or other competitors of the Major Global Financial Institution).

LL, I gather that the job of financial institutions is to earn money through lending by identifying potentially profitable projects that need the money. They will package the loan into high interest financial products for IIs. It is obvious that others/IIs would more like to buy the financial products if the funded projects are in good shape, e.g. with very good progress on construction, using advanced technologies, ahead of schedule, large number of TorPs, ..
If the financial institutions wait until the projects are in desperate situation, even they may get a bit higher interest rate, who will be willing to buy the financial products out of the projects in bad shape (delayed, construction stopped, jobs lost, ...)?

The SM Press Pack in
https://siriusminerals.webdamdb.com/bp/#/brandguidelines/4050/section/39416
has been slightly updated, which includes the change on the stage 2 arrangement (i.e., to replace the previous bank group plan with the Alternative Proposal).

ffcmember, thanks for the times article on the Fortescue's $4.5bn debt facility in 2012: the new five-year loan, underwritten by Credit Suisse and JPMorgan.

Similar to the Alternative Proposal offered to SM to replace the previous bank group plan, the $4.5bn debt facility had been offered to replace a previous US$3.6bn debt facility. The interest rate of this $4.6b debt facility was about 0.2% below the level of Fortescue's existing unsecured facility, or about 5 per cent. This replacement came with no financial penalties associated with the refinancing.

Credit Suisse (and possibly JPM) syndicated, or sold, part of its share of the US$4.5bn loan facility to US institutional investors, according to Bloomberg.

The Major Global Financial Institution (possibly JPM) may do it similarly for SM: i.e. syndicate and sell the $3b loan facility to banks/institutional investors.

“Our position hasn’t changed since the announcement of 12 March. Our discussions are ongoing with a major global financial institution and those discussions remain confidential,” Sirius said in a statement.

Sirius Minerals delivers one in the eye for short sellers: (covering)
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/218224/sirius-minerals-delivers-one-in-the-eye-for-short-sellers-218224.html

This article heading makes sense.

Very strange explanation on the Capital SM share off-load: last time the SP dropped and this time SP up.
Momentum starts increasing, yes, but this is a gradual process. It cannot explain the jump.
I gather it is mainly due to the PI speculation that some good news on stage 2 leaked (but it may not be so).
The price may drop back a bit, but as the end of the month getting near and near, the SP may still keep gradual increase before the real news.

"The new Teesside Combined Cycle Power Plant, on the Wilton International site, near Redcar, could generate up to 1,700 megawatts ...

Having an energy source as a neighbour is also likely to appeal to new companies heading for Wilton, including the Sirius Minerals processing facility ..."

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/major-boost-huge-new-teesside-16089588

As Keytrade AG has a 1.75mtpa MOU with SM, the chance of a Keytrade European torp is still higher than others.

Myo: on ICL "With that in mind......are they the long awaited European torp then?"

This is also very likely, should we call it ICL plan C. Although at this moment, the polyhalite production volume at Boulby is enough for their new series of compound products, this is not a viable source of poly, they have envisaged the end of the Boulby mine as an independent competitor to SM. The Torps are long term contracts (often 7 years, with possibility to be extended to 10 years or longer). Therefore, it makes sense for them to sign a Cibra kind of deal with SM (with cash and the Boulby mine in exchange of long term supplies of polihalite (at a discount) and some equity/royalty.

scotman, their blocking (on permission application, on the virtue of the product, and on the market potential) had failed to work. They understand that their aging Boulby mine cannot compete with the new mine. Due to permission and areas covered by SM, It is already too late for them to create a new mine in the same area, even if they have enough money to do so. They have to be realistic. The central and local governments much be very happy to see some kind of partnership between Boulby and SM, and they should encourage such effort with some financial support/help (e.g., in the form of IPA cover).

Myo: "I think there is a great story still to be told........and lets face it.....every great story has it's twists, turns and intrigue, but you rarely guess the plot!! .... I sincerely hope that Boulby doesn't close...."

In the video, we can see that their main underground road is quite wide, heavy trucks can carry workers around with ample space left on all sides and above the head. It seems that a tunnel at that level is quite solid even without tube-shared tunnel lining.

The polyhalite production districts at Boulby are around 10km from their mine-head. Their underground workings have exceeded 80km in length and extended under the North Sea; i.e., much longer than the SM MTS tunnel.
In comparison, SM's polyhalite production districts are directly at the mine-head with a much thicker seam (under the national park than that Boulby mining area under the sea).

Given their boss's statement, they were operating their polyhalite business on the loss for several years and will continue in this way until reach 1mtpa (a few year a later). It would seem foolish if they had made so much effect (investment, new infrastructure, equipment, research, production, marketing) and opened the market for SM (passively did a lot to help SM to succeed), and then just sit there hoping the fundraising failure of SM for them to continue their polyhalite business.

Given all the progress made so far by SM (initial fundraising, planning permission, stage 1, construction progress on all sites, torps) and the high probability of stage 2 success, ICL must have a plan B, possibly something similar to what has been speculated in my previous post.