Member Info for Wotitsworth

$146/ton............

Does anybody have live feed to see the progress of the Icemax. If so please share.
Thanks

oil price

$135 / ton and climbing

Once the volume is established there will be a field development plan. Probably another well or 2 first to delineate the reservoir but then a plan of how the produce.
This will end up being a sub sea development I imagine. Probably producing to an FPSO which can run to a deep water harbour in the event of hurricanes forecast.

For those who may have concerns regarding the environmental implications, the concerns are probably based on the most recent large incident on the Deepwater Horizon.
From the many stories and presentations that went through the industry and even the now famous movie, it can be seen that the incident occurred when people tried to rush and save money but not properly following procedures.
The obvious thing is to make it too expensive to fail. This is achieved by ensuing that adequate procedures are in place and followed by competent people (competent doesn't just mean that they went to college). This also needs to be applied throughout the life of the well (s) and must also be applied to the transportation system which may be used.
The well can be drilled safely just as wells are drilled safely literally every day. The risk of a spill is actually higher during the producing life of the field. This is where the environmentalists must ensure there have been adequate reviews, during production, yet after it is drilled, for the 10 or 20 years it produces, people just seem to forget..
In short, stop worrying about the drill, BPC and the government have too much to loose. Worry about the producing life, that's when the hazards are quickly forgotten.

OK Starchild, done that. What next
:-)

Whoops...Thanks for the correction Stratosfear........$123/Ton

If we get an award, we pass the sentiment and its just revenue minus costs divided by shares. 250million tons at $1.23/ton. I think 20's is very pessimistic.
But have been wrong before :-)

Very nicely put Starchild.
Frustration is understandable. Like you I am a multi million shares holder so if anything we should be as frustrated as any......But it dont help :-)

Covid put us on the back foot, share dilution and the oil price has dropped. Despite all of this, the numbers still speak for themselves in the event of a find. Everything before that is sentiment. Sure people are nervous now but as word spreads, FOMO will set in.......

In my opinion..

Ref EricDraven: - We don't know whether the KU has agreed to the Government's suggestion of referring our case to UNESCO yet. Hoping it won't have to go to UNESCO, because it isn't really necessary.
In my opinion only.

Thanks EricDraven....so we aren't awaiting a decision on a decision, we are awaiting a decision on whether they should ask the question hahahahahaha
Sounds like the Swedish Govt for sure :-) I have to assume they don't eat breakfast, because they couldn't decide what to have and would never get to work :-)

Petrodollar. Thanks for your comment :-)

SP today. As someone mentioned it was 3.4 not long ago, hope we get back there in a hurry. It may be up and down between no and spud but I will go with 12p by spud :-)

Does anybody have any idea when the UNESCO people are supposed to come back to say "No, Kallak does not affect the world heritage status of Laponia"
Any info appreciated, or even experience on the subject. Seems ike it should be easy as there was already 2 closer mines when the status was established.

Guys, loving the posts and reading is fun. Thank you.
Had to comment on the Analyses of 8p per share for a find of 200mmboe etc
Please anybody contradict me or enlighten us.

In the industry, they refer to probability of success. P90 has a 90% probability and P10 a 10% probability

Range quoted for a strike is P90 200 million boe to P10 1.4 billion boe (barrels oil equivalent). Lets consider that the oil industry is quite mature and the only thing that isn't really known before the drill is the effectiveness of a seal to enable and maintain a reservoir pressure. 3D seismic isn't exactly using a 3 legged stick to find water and the size of the reservoir (if sealed) should be in this range somewhere.

Oil price P90 $40 to P10 $80 per bbl
That's revenue of $8 Billion P90 to $112 Billion

Of course, even with the latest tech of sweeping the reservoir with surfactants to ensure the rock is left water wet rather than oil wet, its not all coming out. So lets say 60% recovery
P90 $4.8Billion P10 $67.2Billion

Then there is a cost of recovery. Crude in this area is quite light I believe, which makes it cheaper to produce, however , lets be pessimistic and say it costs 50% to recover
P90 2.4Billion P10 $33.6Billion

I'm not an economist or do I claim to be an expert on this subject so lets half it.
P90 $1.2Billion, P10 $15.8Billion

Shares in distribution 4 Billion therefore potential revenue divided by shares
P90 $0.30 per share to P10 $3.95 per share

So lets assume the Bahamian government is as corrupt as Mexico and half of this actually goes in the pockets of a few people (not shareholders)
P90 $0.15 per share to P10 $1.97 per share

Looks to me like they have found the most pessimistic economist in the world and asked his suicidal brother for a price......
Someone please educate me as I m thinking that a 5-700mmboe strike will break 50p a share............, but I always have been an optimist :-) I'm off to check the Rockhopper shares in circulation for a 200 mmboe find in deep water in the middle of nowhere that has any infrastructure to produce it (Unlike shallower water in the Bahamas that has an oil terminal).

Good luck to all (including me :-))

it was 2.90 at 16:37 yesterday. Closing price was 2.90 so the 13,000,000 must have been a buy

Anybody notice the 13,000,000 buy from 16:37 yesterday.............

But of course, without the concession.............not so much.
You would think that some of the 60% shareholders in Sweden would be making a fuss.

I think its a P90 (90% probability) of 40p. I would love for someone to tell us why not.

20p reasonable?
Here is a very amateur shot... 25million tons iron ore, $121/T = 3 Billion.
Assume 70% recovery (pure guess) = 2.1 Billion
Cost of recovery 40% (thats a pure guess) = 1.3 Billion
1.3 Billion / 600,000,000 shares = $2/share
Plus the other assets that BEM have.
Lets say I am way optimistic and half it to $1/share thats about 77p a share

Im sure there are people here who have a better idea than me, but 20p..... come on guys