Paradigm shift13 Mar 2021 16:50
These "back of a fag packet" calculations led me, rightly or wrongly, to take a punt on Tomco this week. I must admit the technology fries my brains a bit and I've always had serious doubts they can achieve the desired, clean oil and clean sand from oil sands on an industrial scale. However, if they manage it, I believe it will be a huge money spinner.
With current, upwardly trending oil prices and their estimated costs of production, it is not impossible to achieve an oil product at around $20-30/barrel profit, even before the enhancement using MSAR. Forgetting the multiple 10,000 b/d plants in future and considering one 5,000 plant, running a conservative 300 days per year, gives you 1.5m barrels x $12.50 (Tomco's 50% split). This equates to almost $19m per year PROFIT from one 5,000/bpd plant.
Obviously there is potential to increase this via MSAR, selling of residue sand, as well as scaling up of production. Given their very lowly share price, (Capital Value of around $7m) should the project work as expected/hoped, this Cap Val will be dwarfed by their income.
From a QFI point of view, should the MSAR process add expected value to the end product, I don't think a $5/barrel commission is unreasonable, hence we would be looking at $7.5m per annum income from the one 5,000 b/d plant. I could however be well wide of the mark with my figures although I'm sure some more knowledgeable posters on here could de-bunk them if so.
Either way, I'm definitely keeping my fingers crossed for a successful FEED report and continued development of operations in Utah.