Member Info for Wolster

Well second morning in a row we are fighting off the shorters, all those shares locked up yesturday at 20p+ should help the breach today.

Good old Presidente has raised the awareness stakes well.

I just want the Amerisur flag raised all over that 30% CPO-5 holding now, rather than our subsidiary name, our time for hiding in the jungle is over, get the PR machine in motion BOD.

Things have changed since Mariposa tho.

During 2017

Amerisur were in no rush to show anything (giving Rex nowt) so no pressure there.
One drill into an area doesnt prove alot (particularly to the Indians they are multinational after all)
Basically not much pressure on them, no spotlight nothing.

Post Indico

Amerisur will be pushing alot harder as they will want the SP higher now as protection against low balling & no Rex.
Elle Presidente of Columbia will be wanting some cash tariffs etc & will get mighty upset if after tweeting about this glorious find, everythin goes on hold, so pressure defo on.
India needs Oil seemingly more than ever as its really one of the breaks on their economy esp since the stregth in the dollar.
We are now dealing with an inter connected oil field & not individual wells, the pace has to pick up accordingly.

If conditions were the same as in 2017 I would agree no 2nd rig, but they have fundimentally altered & so have the expectations of all parties involved imo.

I hope they release more CPO-5 information alongside any production update, just because I do expect production to be down on the 3mth period

2 months ago that sort of information would have sent the share price into freefall.

But hopefully it'll cause hardly a flutter given its much reduced importance compared with the CPO 5 activities.

Yep, the shorters/traders today just lost there spread money to the MMs + had a day of panick.

Well done holders, its about time we won.

Lots of buyers in the 20's will now lock those share up till at least they are in profit & rightly so.

Well Brent just bounced off $60, elle presidente supports us & we have beaten of the early morning shorters.

Maybe its time for the 20p assult.

90% chance its a day trader.

Been selling every none news day in the morning to try & cause a cascade fall & then buy back in as soon as the price drops sufficiently, walks away with a couple of thousand free shares & some poor mug who sold last at the lowest price loses a couple of thousand.

Rince & repeat.

Today the seller is having a little more trouble causing the cascade & may hopefully lose out as a result, because they WILL be buying back in at a loss.

No chance they will be out of the stock overnight.

Looks like our seller is still trying to knock the shine off any rise from elle Presidenti twitch.

I know it works every other day for him, but just give it a rest for a day & let the price move up, seems like they are getting burned atm hope it continues wanna see some 20'sss.

Isn't the 30% in CPO-5 held under that subsidiary company.

You would think given the new world order & wanting to promote the Amerisur Brand you would change the name of that company to Amerisur Oil Field Ltd (or sumthin obviously better) with at least Amerisur in the title.

It sounds simple but its all part of promoting the new Amerisur ?

Also with valuations like that, I would bring up an older post of mine - is it ever ok to go all in on a share, how many times does an opportunity like this come around ?

Pickledpeck dont forget BREXIT (man I hate bringing it into a conversation) but if we crash out with nothing & the pound goes through the floor it might be £3.6bn never mind $. (& i wont give a crap about it because i'll be living in the Maldives off my gains(till they sink:( ))

Personally I hope they dont sell CPO 5.

Any company buyer will pay a premium for that asset & it'll take years to find the full extent of the oil find.

We havent a clue where the oil is yet or how much under our other holdings & again it'll take years to find out even with Oxy doing the lions share.

Besides we have tonnes of cash gathering dust now & we could secure financing for anything extra we need, without selling the half discovered crown jewels for a fast buck.

Bird in the Hand is better than two in the bush.

+ after CPO-5 development the inevitable sale of the company.

To move that up to a company valuation:-

0.12p CPO 5 (based on current works no future per Wait's post)
0.10p Company value prior to announcements (tho inc prospective CPO-5 but say contra with Rex sell down)
0.06p Oxy deal (based on $93.5m spend commitment)
0.02p Pipe farm out (no idea of valuation hear, just wanted it into the mix)

0.30p Seems reasonable ? excludes future developments.

This is just the mid morning drop, happens on every none news day.

People who are committed to Amerisur but abit board on the sidelines, selling in morning to buy back in afternoon, they are always back in by 4.30, as who knows when the next news drop will come.

@ Niles

"Problem is at this price is if CP05 is as big as they think then a take over is likely prior to releasing full potential value".

O dear I will only double bag vs treble bag. Worse problems to think about im sure.

TBH the BOD are at the age to be looking for exit routes & I think they will resist any low ball bids, they also seem strong in the deals department.

Since we are all pretty convinced the market isn't valuing Amerisur correctly yet, what do we feel todays share price ought to look like, I appreciate its a difficult call (& is likely why the markets dont know what to do with it).

I wont go into the usual extrapolated final value predictions, but surely some value should be attributable to the planned wells & likely chances of success, in the current valuation model.

So given every stock trading guide on the planet says you should never go all in on a stock & I am certainly not intending to promote doing it either.

Question

1) Is their ever an exception to a rule.

2) Is Amerisur it.

3) If the answer to both the above is positive in any way, at what points do you profit take to mitegate the all in risk (presuming even the crazy fools who have gone all in on this one dont take it all the way to end game - sale of the company)

I suppose I raise this question to really gauge the strength of positive feeling toward Amerisur current position more than anything else, as most of us on these boards are probably now over exposed here & brimming with confidence - just how far should we push this ?

I am sure the company in the eyes of the larger markets still appears to be on there discounted list.

Oil explorers probably arnt that fashionable in a world of electric cars, oil prices swings have been extreme over recent years, lots of oilers probably went under when the oil price dropped last time & here we are in the middle of lower oil prices again.

Plus anyone looking casually at the share price movements over the last 5 yrs (even lower timeframe for the Rex effect), & the huge director payrolls on bad performance, plus risk nature of aim shares, wont take much inspiration.

What I am getting at is this must be as camouflaged as it is possible to be in this modern age & so we have been given a gift wrapped opportunity to make a decent wedge.

All thanks to Rex dump, Oil volatility, being out in Columbia, overpaying our directors & recent underperformances (+even the N Sands duster) all hiding the diamond company underneath it all, once all the shit falls off (which it has) we dont just find the one diamond we find a lake full.

It surely takes some time for all investors (inc holders) to realise the change.

I'm already maxed out in here, tbh ive lobbed in the kids kidneys.

Its all well & good having a nice balanced portfolio most of the time (but tbh I dont always feel I have the depth of knowledge across the board then), however these other companies dont happen to own 30% of an ocean of oil which hasnt been valued onto there balance sheets yet, we do.

Time will tell, but feels pretty safe investment atm, esp since oil price has appeared to have bottomed out.

Only risk is a full blown recession, but a balanced SHARE portfolio aint no protection from that neway.

So in for a penny in for a pound.

Not that I particularly rate him, but is he asleep after his new year bash.

Havent heard a peep since all the transformational news (no wonder I dont rate him)