RE: Sales29 Jul 2020 14:17
Retired Banker ,At least this is worth a conversation
"Stating the obvious - but if this company was so obviously worth 100p / 200p or even 350p as many on this BB suggest then why has the sp normalised at 17-20p after a month of open market trading ?" who knows, why last year was the SP 0.5p or 3p (when I noticed it), it almost looks like the MM's looked at our old valuation BB posts & picked the lowest reasonable one, they couldve just as easy gone for 57p frm that report, my guess would be some LTH started selling in decent enough numbers at 20p (as frankly they had made a fortune at this point - so why not) & the MM's had plenty of buyers at 17/19p to fix up.
"I think the flanks licence has to be the sticking point." - agree, if it was in our hand, maybe we would be at the 60p mark.
"A crude rule of thumb is that proven reserves in the ground are worth around $100 p.oz +/- $50. So they Montrachundra reserves might value EUA at $2.5bn but the flanks add $1.5bn ... nobody could make a sensible offer with that sort of unknown variable." - agree, I was surprised the for sale sign didnt occurr until after flanks notification, presumably all offers say upon receipt of flank licence then we will offer $........etc....at least legally we are entitled to the flanks (yes I know its Russia)
"Even more likely is a huge haggle with the Russian authorities over granting the licence based on royalties ... perhaps they're asking for 10% of Sales as their cut to grant the licence ? " - Well it is Russia & there are risks, however the massive palladium pile is in the ground their so we take our chances.
"Either way this needs to be resolved before the sale can proceed." - agreed & a re-rate will happen when it does.
"As for going it alone and Trader68 view that holders have nothing to lose until we're at 70p ... I think he needs to look at many, many miners who have run out of capex cash. Borrow money, burn through it, borrow more and soon the bondholders have the upper hand ... sp drifts down to 10p and holders of $250mm of bonds now have 90% of the "new equity"" - WT will help mitegate this risk.
"There is still a lot of risk here - but too much reward to sellout now !" - Nothing is risk free & I believe in this BOD (something you dont focus on ( but if Amerisur teaches investors anything) it is critical)