Member Info for WolfofWarks

Stanley - that statement from the annual report is more like ‘grey areas accounting’ from CW side by not recognising while assessing going concern a company ending potential liability. I’d love to know the basis on which it was considered not probable.

Quiggers - I think this is why they are sniffing round Regal.

Hexam - this is why I’ve been trying to ask people to look beyond Hertz or AMC as to what might happen here.

There’s definitely like you say a tightening of the language.

You’re potentially about to f.ucked though my friend.

Whether you realise that is of course a different matter.

I’ve had a read of the first couple of pages, going concern and DIP section but will have a proper read over the weekend.

It’s not good but I do think a lot of it is already known. I would point people who think this is going to shoot to 30p to pay particular attention to the going concern section.

Also CP are the largest unsecured creditor and the WSJ seems to think they are sniffing round Regal, the USA makes up $1Bn of the turnover, around 70% of the income. Might not all be regal though. Also landlords of picturehouse have filed winding up orders.

Honestly there’s so many fires all over the place I’m struggling to see how much of this will be sorted out without current holders being wiped out.

I’d be looking at the bit where they mentioned they didn’t expect attendance to reach pre pandemic levels in FY23 & FY24.

For me even a post C11 Cine now looks a difficult proposition.

Hi Hexam - Jeff’s right they just phrased it differently in the C11 RNS. Can’t remember exactly what they said.

Ian - pretty much everything I’ve been telling you for over a month has just been confirmed in the interim report. Please go and read it.

Ian - I'm struggling to find one bit of what you have just said that I agree with or is true..

In bankruptcy groups get split up and sold off to the highest bidder. Cineworld is not one company - it's over 100 as far as I can recall from the court papers.

The courts role is supervisory, it's up to the creditors and CW to reach a deal, with the creditors having the final vote on whatever is struck. The judge will not decide this, just that due process id followed and all voices heard.

The takeover (which is actually a merger) will not be hostile. They only have to agree it with the lenders who can then present it as a viable option.

Who are these other parties interested in Regal?

How would this work then Quiggers. Can they still hold the appeal as the chapter 11 is in a different legal jurisdiction?

Or is it the case that the outcome of the appeal will be hard to enforce while the C11 is going on in another jurisdiction?

Glencore is my largest UK position and the one I’ve got my hopes pinned on for ten years time.

I’m reserving judgement till results. I’m past the point of it worth even selling now.

Proper bottom draw for probably five years now.

Hope that something happens on the US with SI.

In what sense?

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Wolf, the debtors don't have a personal vendetta against Cineworld or the G brothers, all they want is their money back, so what they are going to do is, the best way to get their money back. Now think about that before you start letting Cineplex just walk off with regal lol, they paid 3.5 billion for it 5 years ago.

Simple question for you, What is the best way the debtors are going to get their money back?
You are over valuing Cineworld's assets and under valuing the debt they have.
Cineplex's deal with Cineworld's debtors will favour Cineworld, they owe most of the debt, the debtors will be stupid to damage Cineworld, in favour of cineplex. It's obvious mate, where this is going, I better quickly order that range rover for the wife, for xmas. :-)”

Poor - piece of advice don’t buy a Range Rover - they are a bag of nails. Get an BMW X5.

The 3.5bn paid for Regal is irrelevant now.

The debtors will already have valuations for the various parts of the business. They would have carried out this exercise to value the chances of their return in a fire sale or liquidation.

They will simply weigh up the offer against that particular part of the business and assess if it’s in their interests. Of course this is in assumption that the 52% group are all in complete agreement/alignment.

CP will have to pay for regal but it is the debtors who will receive CP equity and debt as consideration. If the rumours are true of course.

‘Wolf, how much do you value Regal? Can CP afford it or do you think simply the argument "we can manage it better than G brothers" will convince the lenders?.

Hi Stanley - I haven’t got a clue. General rule of thumb is established US established business in US make more than say the equivalent non the UK just by virtue of their size.

I don’t know enough about the segmented detail behind CINE results though as I’ve only ever looked at the top down.

Jeff - Regal doesn’t have any debt. The debt is within the group holding structure.

“Wolf, cineplex are in a weak position here, they have just been shafted twice, they might not last 6 months. They are in financial trouble also, any deal done will benefit cineworld in my honest opinion.”

Poor what you’ve got to remember is that Cineworld are not in control here, the creditors are. It is them who are putting up the DIP money, it is them who will vote on acceptance of the reorganisation plan and it is them who basically decide whether CINE lives or dies. So if CP can make them a tempting offer of a stake in CP for a merger with regal and they can put a reasonably attractive valuation on it I think they will be tempted.

If that then reduces the debt burden on CW (assuming the debtors would agree a hair cut on the US part of the debt) and perhaps the CP appeal gets thrown out (if it’s this simple) then maybe UK and ROW Cine has a chance.

It all depends how much of the underlying profits are made by regal and whether the lenders agree to a haircut and a D4E with whatever is left.

Given WSJ success on breaking cine worlds stories so far I’d think there is probably some weight behind this.

I think the most likely outcome now it that CP walk away with Regal and the court appeal fizzles away.

Business is a cruel harsh world though.

All speculation of course

Poor - mate there isn’t any ‘regal’ specific debt and if the article is correct CP would be raising their own debt to the lenders to push it through. The debt acquiring Regal belongs to CW. Perhaps the creditors (not debtors) would write some of it off as part of the deal but I think this would see exist shareholders not receive any part of the merger.

One thing is clear about this while some - someone inside seems to be leaking to the WSJ as they seem to be breaking news early.