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Looks to be, where do folks see next support level ?
Merger arbitrage trade - they were never naked shorts. Short - WG (acquiror) Long - AMGW which then converted to WG shares on 9th Oct.
Many Thanks Mikeboy for the very kind words, good luck for next investment and hopefully we all get the opportunity to find PAYS mark II
Best of Luck to you too Moorhey - it has been fun and rewarding on PAYS - Good Luck on the next one and if you come across any real gems - do drop some breadcrumbs back here from time to time and we can follow the trails....lol
TBA - but expected in this Qtr ( 4th QTR) - because PAYS is a payments Co then it is regulated and the TO will require approval etc....... as per conditions in offer doc. But as CVC owned Skrill prior to sale to PAYS then it is likely to not be an issue.
Looks like it hasn't appeased the pilots......and now mo'l looks to be set for a "tete-a-tete a la mo'l style.... turbulence ahead ??
Any thoughts ?
Hi Pistachio, just doing my resaearch : ) ..... oddly cash rich post PAYS acqn but now looking for PAYS mark II - as someone noted migt wait til after the financial results published...no date yet given as far as i am aware.
When are results due to be published, I would imagine fairly soon given placing meeting at end of October? I saw an RNS that there was suppose to be an update on 24 July but I can't seem to see any RNS with an update - and zip on company website ???
This will be hard to replicate - found Pays back in its neteller days by chance - right place right time. Over that time have learned to find one stock where co is in an expanding market ( disruptor), srong and aggressive management who will execute, hugely indervalued to peers... that will be a tough ask for the next stock pick... Failing that i may look for property annuity and invest the proceeds via leveraged exposure... Beat of luck all
Cool, hope that helped. Competitor could also : 1. Asian gateway - AIM listed spin off with shares going to existing shareholders 2. Merger Offer - Part shares part cash - Assume a PE of 25 on residual business fund 50% cash/50% Equity 3. Issue note to fund cash element - secured on PAYS cashflows. They would be adding scale at little cost to themselves and "de-risk" the consolidated business immediately such that entire business would probably be valued at closer to PE of 30 !!
Hi Wicket - still fully lockedin in and loaded on PAYS - waiting for someone to launch a counter bid or for this bid to go away ( I think the sp is probably being held back by it at this stage - remember it only rose 6% on the day and that included news we were buying US entity and we had good results ) Was it this comment on ADVFN to which you refer ? "$2.59bn - on a $3.9bn Acqn is being funded by debt + taking on the $450M Merchant Acqn Debt included - wow combined that is $3bn in Debt !! Talk about JUNK BOND status !!! SO this Baby is going to be leverage 3+ Times over equity - 75%+ value will be DEBT !!! IF this is just an asset sweat play - Why don't our Board just borrow $2.59bn in the market - pay us shareholders a special one off dividend from the $2.59mn raised of say £4.50 and we let the residual 25% of our investment run in a massively over leveraged play and see where we are in 5 yrs time ????? Shame on the BOD for supporting this - not good for PAYS, employees or its Shareholders - in fact there may be a case here for directors to be sued for supporting this bid (if this goes ahead) by disgruntled shareholders and employees for failing in their statutory duty to protect the rights of shareholders, employees and counterparties. The sweet deal on equity being offered seems to be clouding their judgement - and it is the independent directors that are being held out as the approvers even though we know JL and Brian ( double Barrel) M-M are the big winners - certainly would expose myself as a NED by supporting it !! " If so the answer to your question is most definitely YES !! - If I was a competitor I could easily say ok - lets make a counter offer of say 850p ( where Barclays said it was worth) - roughly a PE of 22 and lets say I did that as a 50% cash 50% shares - so 425p cash and balance in shares. Next step would be to take a leaf out of BidCo book - sell Asia Gateway for the $308m ; fund the cash piece of Acqn via debt issuance ( as per BidCo) funded out of positive cashflows of PAYS itself of over $300mn a year - which would easily support borrowings of $2.5bn Worst case scenario as a competitor is that I force BidCo to pay way more - load up on more debt and then not be in a position to fund PAYS development into the future which renders them as less of a competition - and all I had to do was put in a counter offer. As I noted over on the other Board - If I was the counter bidder I would probably wait til just before the Court meeting to make my offer - that way it takes the wind out of bidCo sails. As for your 3 conditions : 1. Worried - why , at worst case you are going to get 590p 2. Unsure - Sure to get 590p as a minimum 2. Confused - keep it simple - if someone else offers you more than the 590p you can accept it : ) - Be Happy - not often you get situations where there only upside !!
Broker instructed to vote NO to Budco
Strange indeed SWLC - RNS will hopefully shed some light - showing on official stock exchange as "ordinary" trades.
am I reading the share sales correctly - that someone has sold 18mn shares between 11 am and 11:40 am ? price has hardly moved - doesn't make sense ? Any thoughts ?
Game On - Interesting 4 weeks ahead - looking forward to another bidder appearing now Budco have published terms - hope they get pipped by a much improved offer
Cheers Wicket - being on the right side of a sp is the only place to be :) In that regard sp may tread water for a few weeks, my gut tells me that Bidco will be forced to come up with a higher offer to win 75% support required from shareholders. II's have 61% and pi's the balance of 39% - so far they only have 2% irrevocable ( JL & BMM the CFO) + 14% expression of support ( but no commitment ) from Old Mut & Thread need - other ii are keeping powder dry. In that regard if I were a counter bidder I would let bidco do the leg work of finding where ii's feel is a reasonable level ( bear in mind Barclays 700p target price due to US acqn alone + some premium) and then I would trump that offer. All of that takes time to happy and folks will keep cards to their chest whilst doing it. With current bid price at 14 x EBITDA - I think there is plenty of headroom left in the bid price for some decent gains to be had - at worst case we get taken out for all cash offer of 590p - win-win-win scenario
There are 3 ways things could go : a) Pays gets taken out at t a premium to current 590 ( anywhere from 15-25%+ and possibly higher if a bidding war commences). - I attach a high probability to this outcome. At 14x EBITDA relative to a Worldpay being acquired at 30x EBITDA - it is a cheeky low ball offer at 590p. b) BidCO succeeds at 590p - so they will need 75% shareholder approval - tough ask as ii's hold 61% and have not realy come out in support of bidco - I think they are like pi's waiting for a rival bid. Even with 100% ii's they need pi's also. I certainly won't be lending my support to a low ball 590p c) bid fails and we go back to before - except I don't see a short attack this time for the following reasons : * cried wolf (c the irony lol) and now we know why - faciliate a low ball bid * dd has been done on asian gateway and we know it contributes $50mn EBITDA (1/6th of total pays)and has a buyer for $308mn- whether or not Spectrum or the eventual buyers * US acqn of MCSP further diversifies revenue and also contributes $50mn EBITDA to offset asian sale. * Sector is alive to M&A risky ti attempt a large scale short * Share buy back is still technically in operation. That is not to say sp won't slip back temporarily if deal collapses but IMHO it will jump up fairly quickly. Also worth noting that Barclays have put a 700p target sp on the share just based off US deal - Asia whatever happens will now probably be sold - that pushes target sp to 850p on a rerating closer to peers. In a nutshell there is far more upside than downside by a country mile !!!
agreed - bidder will just have been waiting to confirm there was no bad news in the results ( which there isn't) I noticed the Google tie -up was buried in the release and hardly got a full sentence in the update I suspect that results are now out of the way - bidders will be sharpening their pencils
No doubt Barclays will be doing a note on this but I have just looked at the numbers of the Acqn of the US business and the sale of the Asian Gateway and here are the summary results : Asian Gateway EBITDA -$50mn with proceeds $ 308mn ( over 5 yrs) US MCSP EBITBA +$49mn with cost $ 480mn ( mostly funded in new Debt) and Tuesday next will see the trading update to see how 2017 is going - lets say 20%+ So seems a very straightforward swap - for $162mn PAYS solved the discount issue of Asian Gateway yet is being bid is only a PE of 14 ( possibly fall further once updated for above) and you have shareholders from Worldpay objecting at PE of 30 !! I can't imagine ii's going for 590p on a PE of 14 Won't take long for the likes of Wirecard etc.... to see that they have an earnings accretive bolt on with wallet ( which they use) there for the taking at say PE of 20/25 ( still massively earnings accretive) and minus the poison pill of Asian gateway for a known amount and with no IPR tfrd ( neteller not part of Asian gateway deal) !! Let the bids roll in !!!