Member Info for WillJay

Ukw, Hicl and Trig all down again today so far, getting very tiresome now

Shares held in treasury are not dividend eligible, so the dividend pot goes around fewer shares, which is a positive, but the money used to buyback these shares has been spent and is no longer on the NAV, which is a negative.

That is my basic understanding, probably wrong.

this is the thing, if they are such a great buy with big discounts and brilliant dividends why isn't this showing in the demand for the shares, it baffles me.

it's almost like the big players know something we don't and avoid and we are left holding the bag when **** hits the fan.

frustrating as i feel like i should be buying like there is no tomorrow, but my knowledge of the sector is extremely limited.

Well it will get to a point where it's simply too cheap compared to earnings.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't HICL have substantial revenue reserves to draw upon if need be?

11.47 1,902.80 0.49 6.65

Sector is going gangbusters today.

It's baffling and hopefully only to do with bond yields, rather than any sector problems as a whole.

I personally see it as a buying opportunity to look back on in 5 years and thank myself.

I'm currently using the scatter gun approach and buying alot if these high discount high dividend plays, time will tell.

Alot if decent insight in these replies, much appreciated.

Here's my high level take.

Stubborn bond yields haven't helped, I have been buying TRY all the way down and that position is underwater like UKW here.

If you chart GBP / USD against any rate sensitive stocks of choice, you will see they mostly follow each other.

We had a great run when GBP was increasing summer / autumn and now it's collapsed.

Hopefully a reversion higher when all the dust settles should support these rate sensitives.

From the peak in September, GBP / USD has dropped 5.50%.

My theory regarding the dividend.

Now that we are on roughly a 20% discount, the 2.5p coming off the share price hits harder than when it comes off the NAV, therefore increasing the discount to NAV ever so slightly.

Over the long stretch whilst on a discount this appears to be very accretive for the investor, as in theory the share price discount should revert to the longer trend, it can't keep moving out with each ex dividend date, otherwise you would eventually have a 100% discount.

For example rough math:

100p NAV

50p Share price (50% discount to NAV)

10p dividend

90p NAV = 10% drop on ex dividend date.

40p Share price = 20% drop on ex dividend date.

Discount is now 55.55% (50 / 90 = 55.55)

I have no idea! In theory investors should be jumping all over this, 18% discount, 8% yield, buying back 250k worth of shares daily.

Bargain or trap? Hopefully someone with insight might be here soon to comment 😂

Is this off the highs purely due to bond yields do we think?

So discount is the widest it's been since Feb 24, last time this traded on a premium was 1st quarter of 2022. Is it to simplistic to use interest rates as the blanket reason, or is this more underneath the surface? Dividend keeps increasing, borrowing costs are mid 4% average and interest rates are starting to fall. Things appear to be brighter looking forwards.

A recession is never good, however it would mean interest rates would be cut more aggressively you would imagine, leading to a recovery of sorts in the short to medium term. There has been plenty of wind off the north sea just not inland.

Wait for when rates actually start getting cut, envisage we should stay over £3 a share when that happens.

Every time I am able to, I top up here. I can't see a better fund that's so depressed in SP yet still producing excellent dividends (with great cover), with the potential for decent capital gains in the future.

Thank you for posting that link, makes for some interesting reading.

I've pretty much wrote this investment off and will use it as a learning experience. If we get anything back in the future, it will be a bonus.

Excuse my ignorance and I appreciate the company is sanctioned, but will share holders get a tender offer in some shape or form, or is that pie on the sky 😁

1.48 years dividend cover*

Can't believe how quiet this board is!

The dividend has been increased despite a terrible year returns wise, now supports over a 5% yield with over of 1.48 years and surely plenty of upside in the SP due to recent falls, why isn't this share more popular? This is my second largest holding away from my pension and will continue to keep adding for the reasons mentioned above.

Ongoing issues...
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1010107/ftse-100-tumbles-banks-slide-after-deutsche-cds-spike-1010107.html