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Hi xviolet, I still have a holding, though reduced. Personally I would be very surprised if the p3 numbers were bad, more a question of how effective and whether a very small pharma can leverage decent but not knockout results in the same way Merke and Pfizer can.
No we don’t know it’s a one day spike, I expect they opened up the throttle once they thought they had solved the issue and let it run, but maybe they held it at the 650 level rather than shut it back down - we just don’t know. It would be a bit surprising if the work they did had no benefit at all. Maybe they are holding it at 400bopd. We just don’t know. We only know it is not full throttle (which we basically knew before anyway from John).
Hi Tiburn - it certainly looks like an opportunity, and I agree probably more oil reserves than they previously thought, but the big but is how quickly can they get at them. I thought about just flaring the gas too, but can they do that or is some regulation preventing them? To me AM doesn’t seem the sort of person who wouldn’t flare unless he wasn’t allowed to.
LB - I would agree they haven’t been able to let their best well (the one that cranks up and down at will) run at full flow, but what we don’t know is at what level it is running. Have they been able to hold it at the 650 bold level or a higher level or reduce back again to the 150 level. We also don’t know how the other wells have been responding. Dakota looks like completing before end of year - we don’t know bopd for that, and that’s at 100% to us for a decent while. So lot’s of unknowns still. Really want the see the Nov numbers at that will show if the 22 Nov numbers a 1 day spike or not. We know the first half of Nov was 30,000 (as 2000 bopd pretty constant from sept through to 15 Nov). So will learn a lot from the total by doing some simple maths. If 22 Nov was a one day spike, like 31 August, it will be apparent as we’ll just match the 63,000 August total. We really need to see 65,000 plus. All in all though looks like Dakota becoming more important, need a decent flow going straight to the Net rather than gross total.
Exactly. That’s enough to be well in profit and service the debt and form a base for further growth. So that would be a great result IMO. In fact should be about 40 I reckon, and that’s without CUDA. So your bad scenario of missing the 5000 by 25% ain’t so bad. Still need some firm evidence however, which is why we are where we are.
LB - Given the numbers and RNS we have seen to date I think it highly likely they are at 2000 net as we speak. So not sure your statement is correct. You seem to be using q3 numbers to justify it. We all know those are well out of date.
I'd agree with points 2 to 5!!
Ultimately this all comes down to the surface pressure issues. Has he had to curtail production significantly because of them or not? He can only hide production from us for so long, and when we get then numbers we will know.
A more astute CEO would just let us know what is going on play by play as the market would prefer that even if bumps along the way.
In terms of new discovery, it makes sense to not make figures public. But I’m terms of production any buyer will see them anyway, so only way to downplay value is to intentionally under produce. I don’t buy that, my view is all the problems have been genuine.
Hi Tiburn,
I think most of us have it between 65k and 70k so we’re all roughly on same page. I think he should just RNS it, I don’t think anyone expecting 90k. Another example to look at is EQT, they RNS’d they were going to miss revenue target and sp up slightly, everyone expected it and forward guidance build trust. Here the sp is based on 60k per month figures and sp depressed due to lack of trust. RNS a nice 68k and everyone should be happy and looking for 100k for Dec. Throw in the new well being completed and sp should rocket.
Hi M22C,
Nov will be interesting. They held production at 58k through Sept and Oct then we know they started increasing again mid month hitting 2700bopd on the 22nd. I think they only need 7.5 MM cubic feet per day to get the desired effect so am not worried there. The real question is whether too much gas output on the top well caused them to halt further increases in that well and if so at what level. I would agree with your 68k for Nov and around the 3000bopd level at month end. But then we look to Dec and the qn is if that well had to be halted at the 700 to 800 bopd level then can the other to 8 wells be cranked up similarly. If so 4000bopd looks achievable to me by end Dec. If the top well can go higher then maybe more, but 5000bopd looks a real stretch.
Agreed, though I don’t think to do with cuda, seems to me more has is being produced than they bargained for , and they need to roll out the kit to deal with it. I’m mainly hoping the kit does as well as they said in the RNS and the top well can keep increasing as the MF kicks on further.