Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Regarding the Cuda bid coms you mention, presumably if he bid for it (a given) and didn’t win it he would have to tell us (and be able to)? If he did win it we are presuming he can’t tell us as part of NDA. So should be able to work out whether won or not?
But Art is Art and therefore dangerous game reading any inference from his coms
Up 15% can't really complain. was a very good day. Anyway I think we all know what kind of guy AM is, and given we know that it's hard for this SP to hold its value until and unless he actually produces the oil. He has cried wolf too many times with fake RNSs (just read 22nd Nov and then compare to todays). There is good stuff to happen here though - just AM needs to regain trust and for him that won't be overnight I'm afraid.
Agreed with production rises we can get much higher sp. But the fact is production has been stagnant for 3 moths due to the pressure issues. Investors will not ignore this as at present production the debt is still a risk. We need either a cheap cuda deal or increased production to mitigate the risk of the debt. At which point the sp motors. Maybe behind the scenes someone has more info and has been buying, that’s the hope. Or maybe a genuine change in sentiment. Gla.
Hi Bob - hopefully you are right, COPL always has the ability to surprise - which I think is because news is always getting leaked away from PIs such as us. So maybe the recent rise back to 20 was on the back of news we don’t know yet. If so then yes more rise could happen this week. Or sentiment could be changing for the better. Anything could happen! But based on what I have seen recently not expecting big news until Feb.
Great to see a non toxic BB with a large element of consensus. I agree not likely to hear anything pre Feb, so personally not expecting SP to go up until then. Also agree no one will want to work with AM which is our trump card and also an albatross around our necks. I expect we will get CUDA assets for around usd 15-20m.
Then comes what we don’t know - how bad are the pressure issues really and is the new well producing any oil. At that point the sp re rates or stagnates. But just with cuda and the present production (or a small increase) we are viable going concern IMO, so 30p by mid Feb minimum IF we get CUDA IMO. Production increases then could be much higher. But rerate on JAn unlikely IMO.
Hi Tiburn - Have a look at BFU-21-35-76. If it really did 650 bopd for one day in Nov (which I don't believe) it means it only averaged 134 bopd for the remaining 24 days it was operational. Yet the RNS stated that the kit install was a success and that further increases were expected. If the kit install was a success then why did it get taken straight back down to it's restricted runrate? Anyway I averaged down quite aggressively on that RNS which is why I am not happy with it. It should have meant 65k for Nov if in the info given was correct. If it was actually a success and he's just starving CUDA, then the RNS just screwed PIs like me to let the wonga lenders get out. Neither explanation is particularly palatable - though in the long run the kit being a success is clearly better for us. I'll be watching Dec numbers by well closely. Glad we're back at the placing.
Hi Tiburn -
August was pumped because we relisted then and needed decent figures, then we got the one day spike on the 31st. As soon as Sep started we went into the managed mode. So not sure it is fair to say the pressure issues were not known then. When we got the 22nd Nov RNS I got very optimistic and predicted 65k at least for Nov, but we now know that RNS was made up (the prod numbers for that well simply don’t tally with even a one day spike of 500bopd). So 20% increases month on month from the Nov numbers bullish IMO given the data we have. Nov numbers were low so hopefully we get decent uplift from them over a couple of months. But 20% month on month given pressure issues hard to see IMO
I don’t think he does own 3%. He just gets them to say that so we think his interests are more aligned with shareholders than they actually are. Ultimately he isn’t that aligned which is why he doesn’t care about the SP or dillutions to it.
Noob, I’d agree. The placing was good insurance, but the real issue for me is that the 15th and particularly 22nd Nov RNSs were purely fiction. At that time AM knew production was being capped by the pressure issues yet stated it would grow. He referred to successful top side commissioning that is clearly insufficient to solve the problem. The numbers quoted on the 22nd are at odds with the official numbers by well we now have. We know why he put out the 22nd Nov RNS, but surely it can’t be legal?
I think that depends on the p3 results. If they mirror the p2 with say 70 effectiveness in getting people out of hospital and no deaths on the sng side then it should rocket, no real competition in this niche of the therapeutics market as I understand it plus results could not be coming at a better time (assuming they do get them out early/mid jan). If however just decent looking but not outstanding, then I agree slower progress.