The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Galp Energia’s share price surged almost 7% on Friday following news it has drilled a successful appraisal and exploration probe on its significant Mopane light oil find in Namibia’s Orange basin and is now set to return to the discovery well to carry out crucial production tests.
The Lisbon-based player has not yet revealed the size of Mopane, but the fact that the appraisal well lies eight kilometres from the discovery probe gives a good indication of the find’s big areal extent.
The company’s stock price increased 6.67% from Thursday's close to hit €15.55 ($16.93) on Friday morning at the time of publication.
Namibia’s Orange basin is a hive of drilling activity at the moment, with Shell having recently spudded an exploration probe called Enigma-1, while TotalEnergies is still on site at its successful Mangetti-1X well and also continuing operations on its Venus-2A appraisal well.
Galp said its Mopane-2X probe in Petroleum Exploration Licence 83 hit a “significant column of light oil in reservoirs of high quality”.
The well had three goals – to appraise the original discovery, drill an exploration target and to drill a deeper objective.
According to Galp’s brief statement, the “AVO-3 exploration target, the AVO-1 appraisal target and a deeper target were fully cored and logged”.
Namibia President Nangolo Mbumba — who assumed office after the death last month of his predecessor Hage Geingob — will hope the Orange basin keeps on giving.
It stressed that the appraisal target found “the same pressure regime as in the Mopane-1X discovery well located approximately eight kilometres to the east, confirming its lateral extension”.
Jefferies analyst Giacomo Romeo said Mopane is valued at €1.9 per share based on net recoverable resources of 800 million barrels of oil equivalent and a net present value of $4 per barrel, with a 50% risking.
Knowledge Katti, chief executive of Namibian player Custos, a partner in Mopane, said: “The continuing success of the exploration campaign further demonstrates the scope and potential of PEL 83.”
Maggy Shino, Petroleum Commission at Namibia’s Ministry of Mines & Energy, said: “The announcement of another significant discovery and the appraisal success at the upper target is further testament to the hard work and dedication of the partners involved, as well as another demonstration of the potential for further growth in our oil industry.
“With this discovery, we are one step closer to harnessing the full potential of this campaign.”
Robert Bose, chief executive of Sintana and indirect stakeholder in PEL 83, added that “this third light oil discovery in the Mopane complex and the appraisal results at the AVO-1 reservoir … provide further evidence of the scale and quality of our exploration portfolio held through our local partners, including Custos”.
PEL 83 lies immediately north of Shell’s PEL 39 and is north and east of Tota
Can't help but feel Total and Qatar giving Eco the rest of the WI in Guyana at no cost, was part of this deal, unofficially.....
Given that Total did back away from the farm out (https://www.africaintelligence.com/southern-africa-and-islands/2023/06/20/totalenergies-takes-step-back-from-offshore-block-3b_4b,109995682-art), now they, plus others are interested is great news.
Yes, drilling is slipping to the right, but without finance, there would be no drilling! This is very positive news and is a result that the South African government has finally broken through the legal restraints regarding oil and gas exploration.
A last-minute burst of interest by multiple supermajors in a sought-after exploration block in South Africa’s sector of the prolific Orange basin will delay the conclusion of a farm-out process.
Block 3B/4B — an asset that could host 4 billion barrels of recoverable resources — is operated by Stockholm-listed independent Africa Oil, which together with its two partners are keen to farm out a combined 55% stake in the deepwater acreage.
A data room has been open for some months and there were expectations in the market that a farm out deal could be struck soon, but an eleventh-hour flurry of interest means there will now be a delay.
“There is a high level of interest from major companies to come into this block and I anticipate that, certainly within 2024, we will have concluded a farm-in,” Africa Oil chief executive Roger Tucker told analysts recently.
Block 3B/4B is completely covered by 3D seismic data, studies of which have identified 24 prospects, many thought to be in the same Late Cretaceous play as the very big Jonker and Venus discoveries made by Shell and TotalEnergies’ on the Namibian side of this oil and gas rich basin.
“We have had significant discussions with one major already on that block,” Tucker told investors on 16 November, and had hoped to wrap up a deal — which would likely involve drilling two exploration wells — sooner rather than later.
However, he pointed out that now, because “three other majors have asked to come into” the data room, finalisation of a farm out agreement will take a bit more time”.
“The (deal) is going to take a little bit longer. But I think it’s worth standing on the sidelines and not leaping at the first opportunity, because there has been this sudden uptick in the level of interest in the block,” he said.
Tucker said he wants to give these late arriving majors the time needed to study what is on offer in the data room, before a decision is made and a deal wrapped up.
He reckons an agreement could be clinched “towards the end of the first quarter” of 2024.
Tucker did not name the interested parties, but it is thought they include Shell and TotalEnergies – who already operate acreage elsewhere in South Africa’s Orange basin – would be keen to assess the potential of Block 3B/4B.
Africa Oil holds a 26.25% in the block, with Eco Atlantic holding 20% and privately-owned South African player Ricocure on 53.75%.(Copyright)
In the news almost daily. Summarised article.
Since Shell and TotalEnergies made the important oil discoveries of Graff and Venus off the coast of Namibia 18 months ago, just days before Russia attacked Ukraine, rumours have been going around about how big they are.
People have used the term "billion of barrels" a lot, which has made some people wonder if the size of these Orange basin finds was just exaggerated. This is always a risk in the exciting world of exploration.
After all, billion-barrel oil finds are rare outside of the Middle East, Russia, and a few other places like Brazil and, most recently, Guyana.
This negative story was helped along by Namibia's bad, but completely undeserved, image among investors. This was because the Kudu gas find from decades ago cast a dark shadow over the Orange basin's oil potential.
Patrick Pouyanne, the CEO of TotalEnergies, was quick to act and try to set limits on what people could expect.
But the supermajor's exploration team must have persuaded Pouyanne that Venus was worth his time, because he decided to spend most of TotalEnergies' research budget for 2023 to study it this year.
From what people say about drilling, it sounds like this money was well spent. The first appraisal probe, which was done 13 kilometres away from the finding well, was said to be a huge success.
Shell has been quiet about its business and has also tried to lower people's hopes about Graff and the three finds that came after it, La Rona, Jonker, and Lesedi.
Both supermajors have been loath to talk about resource size, so Namcor, Namibia's state oil company, announcing last week that 11 billion barrels of oil in place have been found to date seems to be a good reason for all the early excitement.
Namcor, citing Wood Mackenzie, said that Venus with 5.1 billion barrels and Jonker with 2.5 billion barrels are the most interesting findings. This means that Lower and Middle Cretaceous plays like Venus and Jonker are more interesting than Upper Cretaceous plays like Graff.
Even though WoodMac's numbers are estimates, conservative recovery rates show that each discovery could produce at least 1 billion barrels.
Drill stem tests and exploring probes drilled on TotalEnergies' Nara prospect and Shell's Cullinan structure will give a lot more information about recovery rates and could also increase resources.
In the midst of all this oil-related excitement, it's easy to forget that two of the world's largest oil companies have also found almost 9 trillion cubic feet of associated gas in this rich geological basin. This is a hydrocarbon play that just keeps providing.
Last week, Namibia's Petroleum Commissioner Maggy Shino said it very well: "We have only just begun to scratch the surface of the Orange basin." That's right.
Are you sure that's not all your 100k trades going through? Big buying pressure this morning. When Gil pulls off deals like the one in Guyana, then expect the unexpected. If you look on fintel.io, search eco atlantic then institutional ownership, the increase in IIs taking positions in the last 4 months is huge! Follow the big boys....
TSX closed at 21p equivalent. I have a feeling Fidelity are loading up at these prices and it's not be allowed to gap up yet. They have been buying MILLIONS of shares over last 3 months. Well over 6% now.
I've not copied the article, but summarised it here.
Shell and TotalEnergies have unearthed a minimum of 11 billion barrels of light oil along with up to 8.7 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Orange basin in Namibia over the past year and a half, as confirmed by leading petroleum authorities in the nation.
These remarkable figures, revealed recently, emphasize the understanding that this new geological zone's hydrocarbon capacity — extending also into South African waters — equates with the offshore regions of Guyana, where ExxonMobil discovered enormous reserves.
Derived from just a few exploration and assessment wells, these estimates were highlighted at an essential upstream gathering in Windhoek last week by Maggy Shino, Petroleum Commissioner at Namibia’s Ministry of Mines & Energy, who stated, “The Orange basin's potential is only beginning to be uncovered.”
Currently, attention is on Namibia's substantial oil findings, but Shino informed participants at the Namibia Oil & Gas Conference that up to 8.7 Tcf of associated gas has been found in the Orange basin by the European energy giants' continuing exploration efforts.
This quantity greatly surpasses domestic demands, potentially supporting exports like blue hydrogen and maybe liquefied natural gas, as she noted.
Following the Graff discovery in February 2022, Shell reported three more oil discoveries within its Namibian sectors.
During that same month, TotalEnergies located oil at the Venus site and is performing appraisal drilling while pursuing what might become a significant ultra-deepwater discovery.
Namcor, the state-run oil company, partnered in all these discoveries and engaged the UK consultancy Wood Mackenzie to conduct an impartial evaluation of the resources identified so far.
Shiwana Ndeunyema, Namcor’s temporary managing director, illustrated the immense scale of the discoveries thus far, equaled only by Guyana over the last decade.
“We're observing 11 billion barrels of reserves (oil in situ),” he mentioned, emphasizing, “These figures are the most cautious estimates.”
He noted that among these new findings, Venus is the largest, containing 5.1 billion barrels of crude oil in situ.
Shell's recent discovery, Jonker — an eastern expansion of the Venus play — contains roughly 2.5 billion barrels of in-place oil resource, based on WoodMac's evaluation.
According to Ndeunyema's demonstration, expedited, phased advancements are being designed for Venus and Jonker, while no developmental concepts have been suggested for Shell's other two discoveries.
Despite Graff being larger than Jonker, with roughly 2.71 billion barrels of oil in two distinct reservoirs, one holding 2.38 billion barrels and the other, a Cenomanian play, accommodating 229 million barrels.
Shell's latest discovery, Lesedi, is thought to contain about 258 million barrels of in-place oil.
I'd hazard a guess, wind off the DST performance on Venus 1-x is out.....
Mentions drilling two wells this .year on 3B/4B
New hydrocarbons provinces open up
Following in neighbouring Namibia’s slipstream, South Africa is another new hydrocarbons province catching IOC attention. Africa Oil Corp, operator of block 3B/4B, is partnering with Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas and Ricocure on reprocessing 3D seismic data and preparing for a two-well drilling campaign this year. And in Zimbabwe the Australian independent Invictus Energy has identified 13 potential hydrocarbon-bearing zones, with drilling planned for later this year.
https://african.business/2023/07/energy-resources/new-oil-and-gas-prospects-hold-big-promise-as-frontier-exploration-pushes-forward-in-africa
Up to 20p equivalent today...
Or 6 years.....
Https://namibiadailynews.info/eco-atlantic-sees-interest-from-oil-majors-for-namibian-blocks/
TotalEnergies is days away from carrying out the first production test on its blockbusting Venus oil discovery offshore Namibia, amid hints that the thickness of hydrocarbon pay zones may be bigger than revealed originally.
Venus has been touted as one of the world’s biggest offshore discoveries of recent years, based on results from the original discovery well unveiled in February last year, when the operator reported it had hit more than 80 metres of net pay.
TotalEnergies now has two rigs on location off the coast of southern Namibia, one of which, Odfjell’s Deepsea Mira semi-submersible, will carry out a drill stem test (DST) on the Venus-1 discovery well.
The second rig, Vantage's Tungsten Exploerer drillship, is drilling ahead on an exploration probe on the Nara prospect, which could be a westerly extension of Venus, having recently completed the Venus-1A appraisal well.
Deepsea Mira arrived at the Venus-1X discovery well site in Block 2913B in late June and is now within days of starting the DST on this prolific discovery in the Orange basin.
Patrick Pouyanne, TotalEnergies chief executive, told analysts yesterday that results from the well test should be available in early September and will be critical in determining commerciality of a project in more than 3000 metres of water.
"Productivity is important. A 15,000 barrel per day well will be fine. If it's 5000 bpd it's not fine," he said.
Pouyanne - who has always urged caution about over-hyping the scale of Venus - seemed to hint to analysts that the pay zones intercepted so far are promising and, perhaps, better than originally announced.
"The oil column is very big," he said, shortly after stressing that results from the appraisal well were "very positive."
His words which have seen well watchers sifting through the supermajor's previous official pronouncements on the reservoir.
In late February 2022, the French supermajor said it had hit 84 metres of net pay in a good-quality Lower Cretaceous reservoir.
However, Upstream was told at the time that the Venus-1 wildcat had actually hit more than 100 net metres of charged reservoir, while one source recently suggested to Upstream that the gross hydrocarbon column could be far bigger than this number.
There are now suggestions that the results from TotalEnergies recently completed Venus-1A appraisal well - an impressive 13 kilometres north of the discovery well - may have inspired the chief executive's choice of words.
TotalEnergies also holds acreage in South Africa's part of the Orange basin and has provisional plans to drill there next year.
However, Pouyanne told analysts that: "My focus at the moment is Namibia. My priority is to see Namibia come through."
He's not purchased the stake, it was transferred from YF Finance, which was transferred from Meridian Capital. All the same person, looks like he is personally going to make money from this, rather than Meridian.
Fidelity can't get enough. Increasing their holding significantly during this low period. The big boys are buying big!
https://photos.app.goo.gl/RqXsPyhqBvrDCR4EA
There is a seller in the background...YF Finance I suspect. Meridian Capital transferred shares to them (same folks, just different company names) and ever since that transfer went through, the sell-off has been in progress. Once that clears, we should return to our true value. No idea why they are selling, but it's a very interesting setup with Kazak oligarchs involved.
https://www.occrp.org/en/paradisepapers/kazakhstans-secret-billionaires