Member Info for Wigwammer

Yes, I can imagine you wee yourself regularly. Always happens when little people are beaten and have no answer :)

I’m very much playing the ball amtech, and it has been placed in your net quite a few times. Please look at the score - the shares are currently 50% above where you started getting your knickers twisted and discouraging people. The reason you are losing is simple - you underestimated the impact of contract news and a rising oil price on the markets risk/return perception of GMS, preferring instead to focus on potential negatives. It is quite likely now, that even in the event the issue does take place it will be above the 3.8p where you started discouraging others, and one may need to own shares to participate anyway. So with an eye firmly on the ball - looking at investment returns and who predicted what - you are not looking clever right now. Surely there is a board somewhere where you’ve called something right?! … or is being 50% offside the best you’ve got.. ATB

“Always happens when little boys are beaten and have no answer.”… without question, McCatee is currently beating you. Because you were discouraging people at 3.8p and the shares are now 5.6p to buy. In the event a 65% dilution happens around the current price as you suggest, the market cap will rise to circa £90m and the free cash yield will be 30%+. Still sounds like a very nice place to be. ATB :)

Sounds bullish, McCarat!

Thanks splendor, but that is the gross debt number. The NET debt number - debt minus cash - is around $150m. Not large either in relation to assets or forecast cash flows. I anticipate that when the debt rating agencies review PDL, there will be highly material upgrades that reduce interest costs going forward. Notwithstanding an unexpected collapse in diamond prices - and actually the supply/demand balance looks highly favourable over the next few years - PDL looks extremely good value here. Probably why the chairman has been buying. ATB

Thanks for the shares Hasiba :)

Given they are only looking for signals of immunogenicity, how many patients do they need? Even a sample of 16 may provide sufficient clinical proof to suggest a larger trial is (more than) warranted. But I am sure recruitment will continue to rise and, as they say, you can never have too much data.

The net debt is $154m, before inventories worth another $59m. I can’t see the context in which this can be considered enormous in the context of cash flows or assets, but perhaps the sceptics can explain? Thanks

Have been onboard since 3.3p. Enjoy!

You are quite right Mcatee. Sequential guidance for h2 EBITDA is $40m+, and given further recovery in day rates since this forecast was given, additional contract news, and oil strength, we are likely looking at $80m as a very conservative base for 2022. This is precisely why the market has materially lifted the stock price in recent months on decent volume - the necessity of further dilution is receding and if it does go ahead, there will be greater appetite to get exposure. Some piled in at 3-4p. Others did not. The market is the final arbiter here. ATB :)

Not much point arguing with the closed minded, but worthwhile reminding them of the score. Since the monotonous rants started, the market has moved the shares 50% higher on decent volume. Happy Christmas everyone :)

“Monotonous rants”.. indeed.. Perhaps amtech’s credibility would be enhanced if he at least attempted to understand why the market has moved 50% against him on high volume, rather than just blindly repeating the same words each visit. ATB

Indeed. The positive news continues to flow :)

Could it just be Montanaro selling the last of their holding? FSJ will likely be a small position for them and perhaps a new FM just wants rid. They had 1.47m shares left at end of November. Looking at volumes, I’d guess there has been around 2m traded since then, so should be a long way through it by now. Perhaps FSJ are looking to raise money, but examining the financials I really don’t think they need to - covenants frequently get broken - doesn’t mean lenders will enforce nasty measures if they are confident they are lending against a decent business. And this looks like a decent and diversified business IMO

Thanks jolly, cracking post. Fingers crossed it goes lower. When you buying?

I bought some today kija, I agree long term value looks good. But the stock itself is very sick. Big seller in the background? ATB

I have been saying similar things since the 3p cash raise, investhome. A couple of things I would add is that the local tax rates are very low - running into just a few percent, and that the fleet is fully owned, with management expecting fairly low levels of maintenance capex to be required in the coming years, amounting to circa $10m pa. Both of these things support the ability of the company to generate high levels of FCF into recovery, and consequently borrow at higher multiples of EBITDA. ATB

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-diaries-oil-in-your-palm/

Hmm.. contracts signed, higher rates, better guidance.. all the obvious things that the bulls predicted and profited from (but amsham did not) .. I’d encourage readers to look elsewhere for a crystal ball.. atb :)

There there amwrong.. if all you do is sit on a chat board and post negatives then OF COURSE you are discouraging people from buying. Poor advice. You got it wrong. Anyway, keep building the wall of worry, has done wonders for my share account so far :)