Member Info for Wigwammer

The sentiment issue at this level is largely due to disappointed growth investors who purchased at 20p+, having to recalibrate expectations for a less visible future. But for those with a value bent who arrived at 15p and below, SDX ticks a lot of boxes. Low valuation, high relative levels of current equity and cash flow, a pessimistic consensus about future prospects. If it’s any consolation, the latter tend to outperform and at lower risk (albeit without the swagger of following the latest industry favourite - I’m sure SDX was up there at some point in its past). To each their own. While I don’t think people are much good at predicting the future - SDX being a case in point in recent years - possible things that may surprise vs consensus include 1) change in management driving change in capital allocation 2) unexpectedly low drilling costs in 2022 3) unexpectedly high levels of cash generation during 2023 and beyond if/when assets begin to decline 4) takeover to drive scale economies from a peer entity 5) unexpected success in larger projects.: ATB :)

I have read people repeatedly counter you, and all you do is arbitrarily return to your endless list of negatives. It becomes dull and pointless. Here is an example “ I think that they should carve off $1-2m from their drilling budget for a buyback just to generate some interest/movement. Buyback vs 1 well in Morocco, I know which is going to get the MCAP to move up.”

Good post, Scott. Yes an incremental move in the direction of repurchasing shares - perhaps encouraged by a change in management - will rapidly reignite interest here. ATB :)

Highly encouraged by the number of posts from the try “a bit too” hard pessimists. FGS don’t let them have your shares down here :)

“They are forecasting net cash of $34m 2022 YE and $13.8m YE 2021”… $34m = more than 100% of the current market cap. I suspect the cash will continue to materially accrue even as the resources deplete post 2023.

I’m happy if the market cap shrinks because they are buying back shares and cancelling them. That makes sense when you aren’t have much luck with the drill and the shares have fallen to all time lows. But despite the protestations of the FD earlier in the year, the strategy is not to buy the cheaper shares but to spend even more on the unsuccessful drill campaign. If they can make sense of that approach - then why not use the BRR interview to do so, rather than patronise listeners with nonsense about being an ESG company and buying hospital equipment (with shareholder funds - not theirs). If you want to donate to charity - do so with your own wages.

We were told earlier in the year by the FD that they were open to buying back shares. Since then 1) the shares have fallen to all time lows 2) they had a disappointing drill at the biggest prospect, hanut…. Response from management = more drilling!!! … I understand they need to explore, but just moving 10% of the capex budget to repurchasing shares would let them buy back 10-15% of shares outstanding. I suspect instead - they have in mind paying premium valuation to buy the assets of some other troubled operator, but not a jot to shareholders here. If you have no intention under any circumstances of buying back shares - and the evidence suggests you haven’t - then don’t mislead people and say it.

What was the point of this interview?! It’s like two 8 year olds telling you all they know about SDX. Its nice cos it doesn’t pollute much and we donate hospital equipment. Ffs. Yer shares are at all time lows. What’s the plan? If the only plan is drill drill drill then what’s the role of these accountants? https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/611f894b0e6e7c49dbb1e273/sdx-energy-h1-results-2021/?popup=true

"Whilst the result of this well is disappointing, I remain positive about the remaining prospectivity in the area which has not been materially impacted. In particular, I am encouraged by the proof of reservoir quality sands in the Qawasim Fm in the South Disouq area as this derisks further close by prospectivity. The Company will now be working towards moving these prospects to drill-ready status for a 2022 campaign and looks forward updating the market on its campaigns in West Gharib and in Morocco in the remainder of the year." … 90-100 BCF :)

“ Could be a larger holder dumping at any cost to get out of this and preserve what little capital they have left.” .. just posted by SP on advfn.. just filter him.. there’s an agenda there. ATB

Each one of those sells locking in some massive loss. Tail wag dog here :)

“Management will run this into the ground based on current trajectory” … how on earth do you reach this conclusion? We only have 3 years of data, they have rightly invested in exploration to try to build utilisation of their infrastructure, they have clearly stated they are open to returning cash. Exploration is risky - but that comes with the territory. Even if management were behaving aberrantly - the assets are likely to generate $100m+ in ebitda over the next few years - yet I read nada on valuation. If not now, when? ATB

With respect, it gets pushed low because people sell! ATB with where you reinvest :)

Newbie here, so please go easy, but… The thing I really don’t get is the assumption that management and assets are sat on an intransigent treadmill. With only a few years meaningful operating data points, there simply isn’t the history here to conclude anything of the sort. They appear entirely open to the idea of releasing cash back to shareholders, even through buybacks, once the intensive capex phase of 2021 has passed. Given just last years EBITDA equates to more than the current enterprise value, and they have conservatively at least 4 years left of reserves in the bag, you don’t have to be a valuation wizard to work out it’s probably highly undervalued. Nor do you have to believe management have to jump through hoops to get some of it realised. ATB

The trial application was only approved 2 weeks ago.

What Imm actually stated.. “ The FDA has advised that they do not require a formal face to face meeting and will provide their written response to Avion approximately by the end of July 2021.”

“Never a good sign when an II starts selling..” given most II’s underperform a passive index I don’t think that’s true. But it will certainly dampen the price, and/or provide a buying opportunity, over the shorter term.

There are pretty good precedents to understand how much this business can earn at full utilisation. 2015 and 2016 both earned $120m+ at the operating level. My understanding is little capacity has been added and much has been moved to help China develop wind projects, combined with strong oil means rates are on the rise. The market may get a very pleasant shock.

The mrx trial is open label - so they are likely to have an idea how things are progressing. These would be strange words if they were anything other than confident with what they are seeing… “Using the MicroRx platform we have now shown we have the potential to improve the efficacies of cell therapies such as CAR-T," commented Dr. Imke Mulder, Research Director, 4D pharma. "This demonstrates not only the importance of Live Biotherapeutics as a new modality poised to revolutionize the treatment of a wide range of cancers, but also the power of our MicroRx platform to continue making significant discoveries and advances in this field." I suspect the weakness is simply a short manager using a quiet period to bully weak holders.

Thank you for conceding, mr nolupus, that it is not particularly upbeat to believe the shares will double once the trial commences. And to repeat my point, any dilution that may be required is not a material issue - could be 5% or less. IMM retain the entire rights for Lupuzor outside the US, which I suspect is of comparable size in totality. Additionally - as another poster has suggested - they have the data from the previous ph3 to better design and maximise the value of the new trial. With all this in mind, I suspect most informed posters here are quite aware of the potential gains on offer, and I can only assume one is trying to get ones own house in order before encouraging others too much. Perfectly understood :)