Member Info for Wigwammer

A material near term kicker for the share price could be another material reduction in the IAS 19 pension deficit. This was £33.5m at the end of September 2021 with the AA corporate bond yield at 1.8%. With the yield rising to 3.1% at end March 2022 (the FY reporting date) and 3.7% now, we should expect the deficit to close in a fair bit. The correlation with the change in the actuarial deficit is likely to be high, thus additionally potentially reducing future cash outflows relating to it. Of course, there are a lot of complicating factors that go into calculating the deficit so we will have to wait and see, but it should be moving in the right direction. By way of valuing the effect - a £10m reduction in the IAS19 deficit equates to 13p on the shares. An elimination of it equates to 44p on the shares.. ATB. IMO

Or it might just prove that in the short term the stock market is a voting machine, and Carclo isn’t the story of the day. I have been buying at these lower levels, and happy to hold for medium and longer term gains. ATB

The CEO also bought at 14p.

There is likely to be some serious FOMO building here, with many waiting on the sidelines to enter. Please anticipate this and react accordingly. ATB

With respect richie, the RCC early endpoint data was not expected, the breaking asthma data was not expected, the confirmation that the vaccine work with merck was progressing well was not high profile on any timeline.

Most promising is that Merck have spent years investigating the relevance of the microbiome as a vaccine technology. If they are liking what they see after such a detailed examination - is vaccines unexpectedly going to be the most material scientific endorsement of the microbiome yet? ATB

Ok sang. The only reason people may think those things formed part of your hopes and expectations is because that’s what you’ve just told us over a series of posts. Anyway, enjoy your weekend and best of luck with whatever you do with the proceeds.

With respect sang, I think if you expected early approval, multiple examples of 100% tumour shrinkage, and a mirroring of the keytruda development profile (the most valuable drug in the world) then you were always likely to be disappointed. Back in the real world, at this stage and valuation, 4D does not need to jump such extraordinary hurdles to be highly rewarding. ATB

Hmm… an extremely naive premise to believe this early data was ever going to result in approval. On the basis of more sensible expectation, the latest RCC data are highly encouraging, particularly given the product is an entirely safe oral capsule treating late stage disease. Good luck with your other investments.

Well done with your GMS shares, mcatee :)

That’s good. Acceptance of being wrong is your first step to being a better person. ATB

Dear amtech, you have been on the wrong side of this all the way up from 3.8p, and your repeated assertion that there will be an issue has been proven false. Save the slithering and side stepping for elsewhere. On the subject of who selects the option, it is evidently group management… “The Group is exploring the various contractual options available per the current bank terms to take place by the end of 2022.”

Oh dear.. poor old amtech is getting his knickers in a knot after being exposed. Two facts. 1) you have been discouraging investors here since 3.8p, and the shares have doubled.. you got it wrong. 2) you have repeatedly stated that the $50m issue is an inevitability. It is evidently not. You got it wrong… it is rare to find someone quite so obstinate in the face of being proven so overwhelmingly and unequivocally wrong, but it’s fun to remind you now and then. :)

I’m afraid Amtech has been hopelessly wrong. Please keep up. 1) the shares have doubled since he arrived discouraging investors at 3.8p.. 2) his repeated assertion that there will be a highly dilutive issue recedes both as the shares rise, and as the company has confirmed it may go down a far less dilutive route using warrants. I can testify to doubling my money by doing the opposite of what amtech suggests, and it is laughable that mcatee is admonished for “only” making 100% on his money since last autumn. My sympathy to those interested parties who have made nothing during this wonderful recovery, but better to rethink your approach than point the finger at others. ATB

Hmmm.. Carats/Gekko - same poster btw - called PDL down at 82p, then 85p, then 90p, then 100p, then 110p etc etc… you get the picture… I suspect we’re talking about a disgruntled individual who never quite got a City job, works in some peripheral tin pot (not quite) adjacent to City work, and finds it rather difficult to accept he is ever wrong. Good luck all holders btw - won’t take much to send this up, a precious stone or two would be nice :)

I suspect there is a point to writing intelligent, balanced and accurate info about a stock on a stock chat board, and this will have a positive effect on people’s ability to invest appropriately. But there is absolutely no positive effect to writing the fantasy clap trap that you have indulged in this morning, such as “ If a milestone payment is triggered from MERCK we can expect the SP to be well over £4.00 within a couple of hours, 180 million shares in issue, payment of over £360 million on triggering a milestone, plus whatever value the is attached to that milestone, it's just a waiting game now. ” Utter garbage.

Jeez. These dudes really do think they’ll wake up one morning and there will be a £360m payment. I hoped the share price fall had knocked all that bwollox on the head. More realistically, fingers crossed the Oxford Finance cash will come through and see 4D into (perhaps) next year.

And worryingly at least 6 people have ticked up sunny’s post… expectations here are ridiculous… little wonder the shares remain under pressure when holders have such elevated expectations…

Good summary, frank.. I’m keeping the faith and adding more. I guess management cannot add until after the End March 2022 results are released in early summer. Last year they purchased the very next day! ATB

Interesting (I think) to consider what would be deemed a success with regard to the covidity trial. The earlier covid vaccine trials focused on the percentage effectiveness over a number of months. The next generation vaccines are more focused on longevity. Is a 50% effective vaccine over 3 years more valuable than a 90% effective vaccine over 6 months? We are of course, only going to get indications of breadth and length of efficacy at this point.