Member Info for Wigwammer

So if investors want to contact their broker, and potentially get filled at 5p, great… PI’s treated the same as institutions… what’s yer problem with that?

An army flipping?! The bid is 5.3p and pittance has been sold. It’s not exactly gold rush time :)

In parallel, a further longstanding institutional shareholder in ImmuPharma was approached to gauge their interest in participating in the current funding round. They too indicated their agreement in participating alongside Lanstead.

14.7% dilution at a standard discount. Fully expected by most. Funds imm through key inflection stages. Anyone trying to exaggerate things is just trying to get your shares on the cheap. ATB :)

It’s a 14.7% dilution. Keep things in perspective.

A 14.7% dilution to get us through the next 12 months.. “Assuming the Broker Option is fully subscribed, the Lanstead Subscription, (including the Lanstead Value Payment Shares), the Placing and the Broker Option combined would result in the issue, in aggregate, of 49,218,182 new Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 14.7 per cent of the Company's issued ordinary share capital as enlarged by the Lanstead Subscription (including the Lanstead Value Payment shares), the Placing and the Broker Option.”

Sounds like an opportunity for smaller players to pick up business, Saipem not the competitor it was.

Outlook for FY22
We expect higher revenue in 2022 across our business supported by the continued growth in our order book.
We expect a stronger performance in the second half, helped by an improved performance in our Turbines joint ventures and stronger revenue growth, particularly in our Projects business.
We expect the sale of Built Environment Consulting to improve our net debt position in the second half.

Sami Iskander, Petrofac's Group Chief Executive, commented: "We have made good progress in the first half of the year to position the business strategically to capitalise on the expected multi-year upcycle ahead, supported by a strong energy price environment and ambitious growth plans from clients in our core markets.

Petrofac has existed since 1981. Pretty incredible for a business that supposedly loses cash every time it’s sales grow…

They won’t want to screw avion, who recently paid 11p. At the same time, it is likely directors will want to load up if they think good news is coming.

Actually.. looks like the £1.6m there end of December included the £3.5m raise, with something like £2.4m deferred as part of sharing agreement. So - depends how much they get from sharing agreement I guess.

Why do a placing now, if they are confident of good news? Unless they aren’t confident of good news. Cash balance end December was around £5m, including the December cash raise, easily enough to see them through this year. They will also be getting something in from Lanstead.

Jeez… same level it was at in the depths of covid, when the oil price went negative… hard to believe energy prices are near multi year highs, and service providers talking about imminent and enduring cycle recovery.

It’s a poor piece of research beza, IMO... 1) they are too pessimistic about dividend reinstatement because they assume the actuarial deficit and related payments are fixed ad infinitum, when in fact they are reviewed every 3 years. The level of actuarial liabilities are highly sensitive to the discount rate - the IAS liabilities sensitivity for example is 16% for every 1% move in the discount rate. Using March 2021 data, the prelim actuarial assessment estimated the liabilities at around £250m, but since then the discount rate has moved from 2%, to around 4%. Taken on it own this would suggest a circa 30% or £75m reduction in the liability, nearly the entire actuarial deficit. A materially lower deficit would likely mean materially lower pension payments. Of course, this will likely not help much with the payments review to be completed in July, but does suggest that dividend payments may be reinstated long before the “decade” that small caps life believe is a clear inevitability.. 2) small caps life are wrong to state that using a PE is inappropriate for an indebted company. The EPS used in the PE calculation is AFTER interest paid, meaning the measure does adjust for interest paid and consequently the scale of debt… 3) small caps life have miscalculated their earnings yield. They state that even assuming 30% EPS growth gets them to a 3.8% earnings yield for next year. In fact, the reported underlying EPS from the year just reported was 3.1p, and adding 30% gets you to 4p. At a share price of 22p, this results in an earnings yield of 18.1%, far higher than the 3.8% small caps life state… in short, be careful taking anything small caps life tell you at face value, sounds like poor quality stuff.. ATB

I agree. Management silence is shocking. Shares more than halve over a matter of weeks and they say nothing. On all standard metrics it looks cheap - albeit current PE smashed by input cost inflation… hopefully over longer term this can recover.. market a short term voting machine, long term weighing machine.

Hi debs1.. I agree that oil and other input costs are a major headwind, but in an environment where economic growth slows materially, is there not a good chance these costs recede substantially as demand weakens with the cycle? At the same time, I do not see people cutting back materially on laundry and cleaning products, in fact there is a reasonable argument to suggest they will trade down to cheaper Mcbride brands. It is also difficult to see why government would allow the masses to get into a situation where they do not have access to basic sanitary products. Another factor is the pension liability/asset equation, which is substantial - with corporate bond yields rising substantially this year, the discount rate may eventually result in them having a metrical surplus to show, offsetting some of the net debt build… price:sales of 0.05x, with meaningful flexibility of the debt side… imo has good chance to survive and thrive (eventually)… big volumes going through over last few trading days - the more shares that move from those who do not want them, to those who do - the better..

Such aggressive selling though.. usually presages 1) a weak update .. 2) a cash call ….. If either or both are true it does beg questions - why have management taken so long to update the market, and allowed investors to continue to buy in good faith (MCB has been falling for months)… and why undertake PMDR purchases and create the impression everything is ok? …. Anyway, fingers crossed they inform PI’s soon and that it isn’t ALL bad, always last to know…

You would think the trading down effect and continuing demand for necessities would put McBride in some sort of sweet spot, yet the shares get demolished on a daily basis. It falls even when buying volume exceeds selling, a pretty shabby situation for a company with a full listing - no transparency and all
a bit amateur. Yes the net debt is going up a bit this year - probably two years worth of profit to bring it back down again, but nothing to warrant this scale of fall. Also the pension deficit may well be eradicated as corporate bond yields rise. But down down down we go… shabby that management let it go on day after day, with no update, and having encouraged PI purchases by buying themselves (at materially higher levels).

That’s true, Chris. It’s going to look very out of date when it arrives, with the AA corporate bond yield moving from well under 2% to well north of 3.5% now.