Member Info for Wigwammer

Bermudashorts, I truly have no idea what you are going on about - I’m not too sure anyone does - but all the best with that…. TF - I agree a 16 week follow up would be helpful, and judging by the share price has also been expected. GLA

I thought we were agreeing to disagree, bermudashorts?! Yes I’m sure Scancell will release information as per industry guidelines, as I’m sure the vast majority of companies do. But some companies have a reputation for releasing information in a consistent and predictable manner, and others do not. It is an open label study, it has been over two months since the last update, we know the company considered the scan 1 results of 14 patients to be material, they have given us information relating the dosing regime which will lead people to expect scan 2 to have been completed. In short, they have created an expectation which risks becoming a void if they do not fill it.. That’s just my tuppence from my experience with these things, and you are quite entitled to have a different view. ATB

I’m sure data on scan 2 of the 14 patients would be considered meaningful, just as the data on scan 1 of the 14 patients was considered meaningful - and hence RNS’d….. To think otherwise might be considered inconsistent. ATB

“There is no delay and no benchmark…” This is your opinion, bermudashorts. In my opinion and experience, by reporting on 14 patients at scan 1, they have created a precedent. And if they don’t maintain consistency by reporting after scan 2, then investors will legitimately start to question why… On the point of investors not being given access to data which may guide them to when scan 2 is taking place, I think you are simply wrong. ATB

I have in the past been pretty relaxed about the way Scancell reports information. But they are in danger now of lapsing into a state where their approach to data dissemination can be described as selective and inconsistent . The update provided in Feb was based on 14 patients reaching first scan. So that sets a benchmark in investors minds as to what should be considered material enough to prompt update. We can now be pretty sure that all 14 of these patients have passed second scan. So based on Scancell’s own guidance as to what is deemed material - in terms of patient numbers and event - an update is now at least a week overdue. I am hoping that the delay may be related to the time required to get option incentives in place, but if so, that’s a bit naff… Come on Scancell. Why haven’t we seen the 2nd scan data on the 14 patients? If not imminently available then investors are going to legitimately ask why not. Good or bad, better to be open and consistent. IMO

Agree. Filter him. Don’t mind a troll with a personality, but jeez he’s a humourless bore.

??? The whole private equity model is about borrowing money to buy equity… Do you think if DLAR wasn’t leveraged it would be trading at a market cap of £80m? So of course a bid could come in and the debt absorbed, that’s what PE is all about!

On the subject of Scancell vs the rest, one of the most convincing points is that LD - with her vast experience and knowledge - has already undertaken a comparison for us… “we have never seen anything like it with any other vaccine or combination therapy“ … while of course LD is an invested party, the objective data is there to prove it. Fingers crossed the preclinical results continue in the clinic. ATB

WF. I think it was, but happy to be corrected. I no longer have the AGM recording on my phone, but might be helpful if someone could confirm. Thanks

SC134.. Anti-fucosyl-gm1 antibodies? LD described this as potentially the ?holy grail of cancer antibodies? at the AGM.

Looking at the data again, only 5 of the 23 dosed were non ovarian, and we know that ovarian has in the past proven hard to treat with limited options and no CPI… so that means that in the space of a few months, 1 in 5 outside ovarian have seen a partial response, and 50% of head and neck (1 in 2)… all 23 had DTH responses… as another poster said - those T cells are going somewhere…. As LD said, “highly encouraging”. Have added a few more :)

And I have responded to the point on valuation. I have suggested that people consider what they believe is an appropriate Moditope chance of success. If they believe 12.5%, then the TD piece might make some sort of sense. But I suspect many - especially those who have listened to LD, Vulpes and the rest present - will likely believe the chance of success is higher than that. Consequently, that would support a higher valuation. Of course, the time to consider all this is before the news emerges. After the news has emerged and shares risen, it is a bit late.

Actually, I have no serious issue with TD. I have stated that I liked the company analysis they did recently, but not the valuation part. I have stated that the most recent update was little more than a regurgitation of the RNS, which it was, and failed to mention the DTH results, which it should have done… The reason the point has escalated to this level is because a number of posters refuse to accept the bleedin obvious - the note should have mentioned DTH. End of.

I guess they could also ask Redmile and Vulpes whether 12.5% sounds like the right figure… ATB

Bermuda - so you find the DTH results really interesting but repeatedly defend the house analyst, who failed to mention them, let alone value the impact…jolly good… On the valuation side, I am quite right. TD have calculated an NPV for each product, and weighted each NPV by probability of success. The probability of success figure used for Moditope is 12.5%, driving a circa 36p sum of parts… Reading this should not deter any new investor, because they can rest assured the typical valuation work undertaken by sell side analysts is a load of bwollox, especially in the biotech arena. I advise new investors instead to listen to the last AGM and ask themselves, does LD sound like she thinks Moditope has a 12.5% chance of success? The new investor should actually feel highly encouraged - as many here are quite happy to anchor around that figure, despite what they have read and heard over many years - it isn’t priced in… Yes - sell side analysis can be useful for identifying relevant considerations, except in this case DTH response! - but weighing things and sticking their necks out, very rarely happens.

Certainly agree on the brucie bonus, Chester. And as mentioned on the ADVFN board, I have picked up more. On the subject that everyone gets the point about DTH and TD, are you saying you agree with it? Because I don’t think others do.. The value of the DTH data is, to my mind, not on the psychology of a few day traders that might have taken the shares a few pennies higher… But on the impact of chance of success relating to the primary outcome, efficacy and commercialisation. Not much point raising your chance of success AFTER solid news - the shares will already have done their thing. ATB

Of course Bermuda… the house analyst not mentioning the DTH responses, and a number of posters agreeing that it didn’t need to mention them - including yourself, has nothing to do with why some posters believe the DTH responses have been talked down as a sideshow. You asked the question, and you’ve been given a very clear and salient answer. ATB

Valuation is all about the chance of success. Who remembers LD’s rousing AGM presentation? The confidently handled Q&A? The love for Moditope!! … now imagine she steps up to conclude this momentous event with.. “Ladies and Gentlemen. I can confidently tell you today that Moditope has a 12.5% chance of success! .. Yes… an unbelievably low 87.5% chance of failure!”…. TD vs LD…. Take your pick :)

Bermuda - TD are the go-to contributor, paid for by Scancell. They didn’t mention DTH. Not only that, several posters here including yourself concluded that was fair game. As stated earlier, rather than encourage people down this path, better just get on with your day.

Bermuda - with due respect, some posters just don’t agree with you. In terms of the TD note, DTH wasn’t even a sideshow, it just wasn’t mentioned. Not impressive. But rather than encourage people down this path, perhaps better just to get on with your day. ATB