Member Info for Wigwammer

Hi Ivyspivey.. you state that you were more circumspect about dramatic news and were not surprised at yesterdays drop. So why did you recently announce on advfn that you bought at 22p? Seems an odd thing to do, if you believed the shares would likely drop even with good news. ATB

With respect, Lindy and her team have rapidly moved from being a predominantly lab based company, to being a company materially responsible for the treatment of 23+ very sick people. Is it really hard to imagine why priorities might be elsewhere? With this in mind, I don’t see much wrong with the communication or business progression, and see a lot of positives in the clinical data. The selling isn’t particularly high volume. Price move is just standard volatility for a company of this description, and provides small holders with an opportunity to top up. I think one other thing to bear in mind is - sooner or later Scancell will need to raise cash. They have a broad portfolio and in the event things don’t all come up roses with Moditope, better and less dilutive to raise money at current valuation than after an even more severe fall. 20% dilution at 15p to put another year or two on the cash runway? Am sure it’s a consideration and not one investors should be scared about. Not saying it will happen, but that’s how I would be thinking. ATB

Yes, good points Chester. I think it is worth repeating Burble’s excellent observation. All 23 saw DTH! It really is exciting.. “ 1 - 'An important observation that has been sustained over the course of these studies is the association of a positive DTH response to unmodified, autologous melanoma cells with prolonged survival. Thus, in the measurable metastases group, the survival of patients who developed a positive DTH to unmodified tumor cells was significantly longer than the survival of those who did not: 16.5 months vs 8.4 months, respectively (p
= .023, log-rank test). In the post-surgical adjuvant group, the development of a positive response to unmodified tumor cells was associated with significantly greater 5-yr survival (p< .001, log-rank test)'”

Really interesting posts, burble. Thank you

Remember that much of the new data is likely to relate to ovarian cancer, given the previously announced distribution of patient numbers, and my understanding is there are no approved CPI options in ovarian. To be having an effect here is great news. So this comment is particularly salient, IMO…” Dr David Pinato, Principal Investigator at Imperial College, commented: "Advanced ovarian cancer is an aggressive cancer which is hard to treat. The early efficacy data showing that the Modi-1 vaccine is stabilising this advanced disease is very encouraging"

I agree Chester. 8 weeks is early, and it may be that the vaccine simply requires more time to achieve further partial responses, as opposed to higher dosing. I recall Lindy saying (words to effect of) she was surprised by the speed of reaction with the first partial response at 8 weeks ie full effect not expected at this point . But patients moving in the right direction is fantastic news. GLA

It is clear from the TD note we can expect a safety and immunology update soon. “Modi-1, the lead programme of the Moditope platform, is progressing through the ModiFY Phase I/II study with safety and immunology data from the three initial cohorts expected shortly” (dated 15/2). I had started to think that perhaps the company deemed the few lines given in the interim report as adequate to absolve them of further readout at this stage, so reading that is encouraging.

Crumbs - I agree the human blood data is another big tick. Bermuda - one could also consider that many early stage biotechs do not have the backing of institutions like Redmile and Vulpes, do not have a wide patent estate, do not have the support of cancer centres up and down the country, do not have large scale trials in progress, have not seen early evidence of efficacy including a partial response etc… on the key point of preclinical efficacy it is clear that Scancell believe this sets their phase 1 apart, RG included! They believe they have a better than “standard” (as you describe it) chance. ATB

Bermuda - with respect, I have read your posts with an open mind, and I agree with RG’s comment - “you can get fantastic results in animals and it’s not quite so good in the clinic”… But it is important to recognise what RG is NOT saying. If you have a product with fantastic preclinical efficacy, and the result is not quite so good in the clinic, you may still have a successful product that meets a requisite efficacy target. But if you have a product that starts with less than fantastic efficacy in animals, and that result deteriorates further in the clinic, your chances of success are materially lower. So RG’s words in no way should be used to suggest that all products going into the clinic have the same chance of success, or that moditope with fantastic preclinical data should be given the same chance of success as another product with lower preclinical efficacy. In fact, the whole narrative of Scancell over the years is precisely that the preclinical data suggests they have something special and unique on their hands. The TD note is going to be a useful sales document, but underlying messages from Scancell particularly regarding chances of success? I don’t think so… ATB

The short answer bermuda, is experience. I’ve looked at hundreds of these companies over the years, both professionally and otherwise, and probably read thousands of broker notes. On top of meeting hundreds of analysts, management teams etc etc… Yes, they commission Trinity Delta to produce some research and piece a document together, something to sell. But the idea that any credible buy sider is going to take the valuation work seriously is naive. When it comes to biotech - you simply skip and ignore that bit, and I guess Scancell anticipate that is exactly what the buy side will do here. The strange thing is that despite all LD’s protestations that the Moditope data is fantastic and unprecedented, over multiple interviews over many years, a large contingent of holders are evidently happy to dump that conviction cos it says in a sell side note that the chance of success is 10%. The TD note looks like a useful document, plenty of information. Underlying message from Scancell that Moditope has a 10% chance of success? Come on - go and listen to the LD interviews again.

Ruckrover,
“As has been explained, the TD valuation is what they estimate SCLP are worth TODAY considering the risks.”… it may be what TD estimate SCLP are worth today considering their perception of risks. But it is not what Scancell think they are worth. It is not - as another poster stated - a message from Scancell.

“What evidence do you have that those preclinical results are more likely than others to be replicated at the same level “. More likely and at the same higher level?! Slippery…. The point that the Moditope data is positive and unprecedented - and that consequently this increases the chances of a positive result in humans - is the whole basis of Lindy’s narrative. If you don’t agree, then little point opting for this share over dozens of others.

Bit of a slippery question, bermuda. What evidence do i have that those preclinical results are more likely than others to be replicated at the same level? … or why do I think brilliant pre clinical data has a better chance of getting a brilliant result in humans than inferior data? Come on… you don’t need me to help you there… ask
LD.

But that isn’t the right question, ruckrover.

The right question is - does unprecedented and positive mouse data have a better chance of having a positive effect in humans, than data which is not so positive?

LD and Scancell clearly believe it does, TD not so much.

I think we are in danger of mixing TD’s view with Scancell”s view. Would LD recommend a 33p offer today? Erm…. I don’t think so.

There is no way the underlying message from Scancell is that Moditope has a 10% chance of success. This I very much the view of TD, not Scancell.

It doesn’t matter how many glymab deals are signed, how good the early data is, or how unprecedented the preclinical data. The standard probabilities are applied. I really don’t think this represents Scancell’s view at all, it’s just “belt and braces” valuation work undertaken by a sell side analyst, devoid of any desire to commit.

LD is really excited about Moditope because the unprecedented mouse data drives a standard chance of success?! Come on. Makes no sense.

Surely we can expect that unprecedented mouse data has a better chance of success in humans than standard data? Otherwise, I don’t really see why any of us would be interested here. Anyway, GLA and let’s hope the next update is a good one.

With respect bermuda, the whole excitement around the unprecedented data is precisely that you do not apply standard percentages to the potential outcome. I can see why trinity have done it - typical reluctance to make a decision among sell side research - but I doubt it is reflective of what Scancell think.