Member Info for Wigwammer

Nice move. Onwards and upwards! Fingers crossed nobody acted on the suggestion of the sellers yesterday. ATB

Walkie - I think this is a good recovery play over a 3 year period - they have decent market size and positioning - so the shares really could multiply if/when things improve. But given the debt, it is likely to be a bumpy and unpredictable ride short term - and I don’t think anyone has a great crystal ball predicting those bumps. Is it worth the wait? There are multiple valuation perspectives that suggest so IMO. I note the enterprise value is now around £750m - that’s around half what they paid for Eastman and Omnova combined - and that’s before mentioning the legacy business. So it seems a lot is priced in. Another perspective is on a recovered EBITDA multiple - they are still emphasising that £300m EBITDA is possible - put that on a conservative 6x and the equity is worth around 750p a share. The risks obviously are that things deteriorate further, they breach covenants and we get going concern warnings etc. But the banks have thus far proven supportive, recently extending terms to 2027, and they must be aware that chemical companies experience downturns as well as upturns. So it seems good risk/reward to me - but to repeat, I thought that at 70p old money too! GLA

I’m really not wrong, joseywales. Anybody who followed the advice given in your posts over the last 6 months or so would be sitting on highly material losses - starting around 500p new money. There is no evidence here of this great trading approach you repeatedly claim to possess… And the naysayers you dismissed this morning actually had a good point - Synthomer have simply moved payment of the fine into January. So not so much “naysaying” as “doing research and getting it right”… With regard to the fall off since 180p - that’s easy - the whole European chems sector has been under pressure, and being more geared than most, Synthomer suffers more given the weighting of debt in the EV… If/when we see recovery that leverage will work in the other direction - and fingers crossed that happens sooner than later… GLA

While we await JWBellamy’s illuminating post about Synthomer, can I suggest the main reason for the muted price response so far is the point I made earlier - they have simply moved the £38m fine payment into January 2024, thus reducing the year end net debt figure. Obviously this means however, that as of about now, they are starting with a net debt figure materially above the one reported this morning. ATB

JWBellamy.. I was recommending purchasing NOG well above the price, and well below it. Interesting that you don’t mention that, or McBride or GMS where I have multibagged over the last year. But this is the Synthomer board - do you actually have a point about Synthomer?

I agree GoCPI - this is a good recovery play, but I have also been saying that since 70p old money. My point is that the naysayers have been proven right, and only a plonker would repeatedly dismiss them (especially after he/she has been proven hopelessly wrong). Fingers crossed the recovery starts here. ATB

JWBellamy - this is not the nostrum board though, is it? … and for the record, Nostrum now trades above where the debt:equity swap took place. Apart from that, great point.. lol :)

For the benefit of newbies, joseywales was a buyer at 500p (new money), then 400p, at 300p he claimed Synthomer was “a slam dunk buy”. So perhaps he should give the naysayers a bit more airtime. He also claimed after all this to have a 180p average - lol - so take everything this guy posts with a pinch of salt.

Slightly better than expected - but I note the net debt figure of £499m is before payment of the £38m European purchasing fine, which they rather cleverly moved to January 2024 (to avoid including in year end figures). Given weak sentiment, I would expect a relief bounce but who knows..

Message received captain. And congratulations on your journey so far :)

Well done with your trades, LOTK. You have clearly defined your buy and sell trades in advance so people can see how the profit has been made. Rather different to the claims of another self professed maestro here, who was buying at 500p, buying at 400p, thought SYNT was “a slam dunk buy” at 300p, and now claims to have a sub 180p average… lol :)

With respect LOTM, in 30 years of private and professional investing I have never seen any trading approach that consistently earns positive returns over short periods. This includes years of quant based research, developing algorithms to backtest the alpha generated by just about every price/volume based approach imaginable. Running the strategies across decades of data and multiple markets. There simply isn’t a short term strategy out there that consistently gets a decent result. So when I hear about private investors believing they have the magic touch - I take it with a big pinch of salt. The “slam dunk buy” trade at 300p was made by another poster here who claimed to be a trading maestro, but who conveniently forgets what he has posted when it suits his self aggrandising narrative. The reason I emphasise the medium/long term is because that is where the proven sources of alpha are generated. But it requires patience.. ATB

Hmm. Obviously if the trade goes in your direction then it will help reduce losses. But the opposite is also true. So a “slam dunk buy” trade at 300p has an extremely damaging effect on your average price when the shares drop to 180p. That’s just a fact. Based on what I’ve read here in recent months, the overall performance of reported trades has been poor… Better to think medium-long term and stick with your guns - SYNT looks great risk/reward at this level… IMO

I think people need to take what is stated on these boards with a big pinch of salt anyway. For example there is one poster who stated Synthomer was a “slam dunk buy” at around 300p, in other words - worthy of a big one way punt upwards - who now claims it’s all a bit of fun now the shares have halved. It’s just a load of nonsense….. My own view is Synthomer is a £2.2bn+ revenue company with decent market positions, a history of earning attractive op margins, a credible medium term goal of doubling EBITDA to £300m+ - and if such an event becomes reality we could see the shares back at £8+ on a 3-5 year view. That’s a return worth waiting for IMO… ATB

It certainly smacks of poor corporate governance to see the Chairperson responsible still in position. Something not quite right there.

I had a 73p average pre RI, so down around 40% there when it hit 43p. I took up full rights and paid for them by selling shares at around 48p old money. I’ve also averaged down under 200p. Guesstimate - if the shares get back to around 280p i will have broken even. How much am I currently underwater here… too much!

An average below 180p?! There can be no connection whatsoever between what joseywales posts here and what he actually does… He first bought at 84p old money (over 500p now). He then spoke positively all the way down to 60p (around 400p now). Then two days before the rights issue he stated that he didn’t think there was going to be a rights issue. Then post RI the shares fell to around 43p old money (around 290p now) and he claimed the shares were a “slam dunk buy” … Now at 205p he claims to have an average below 180p… lol… a legendary hindsight trader :)

Upgraded guidance. New yacht arrived ready for 24/7 partying all the way to Christmas… At the midranges, these forecasts suggest circa $276m net debt end this year, and $228m end next. Fantastic :)

Thanks miavoce - that’s interesting … big typo though?

Hmm… not really an answer though… anyone with knowledge got thoughts?