Member Info for WiganWarriors

Your 3.8p dividend will now be paid to the address recorded by the registrar. Your home address I assume. Once you move to an isa, then future dividends will be paid to that isa account.

Democracy is for all, not just a few narrow minded self serving right wing Tories.

Perhaps we should apply a weighting coefficient each time we have a national vote. For example, for all those aged 18-30 get 1.5 weighting, 31-55 they get 1 and 56-expiry get 0.5. That way we get “skin in the game”, and those who have longer to live with the consequences of any vote have a little more say.

Well, I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that tonight’s events are positive. Looks like the EU has taken the heat out of the situation and allowed parliament to probably take control of the situation. This should be good for the builders tomorrow. Let’s see.

Simples. Builders are a direct proxy for deal, no deal. A deal and they will recover and push on as we all get on with our lives for a couple of years. If Mrs May’s deal voted down again at the last minute next week, I would expect builders to fall hard. Clearly she is focus’s on keeping the Tories together, and not doing the right thing for the country by letting Parliament sort out the best deal, be it in or out. Testing time if you hold builders.

It is true that profit contribution from each unit (private and affordable) is ~ £67k. However, this is an average and includes the £1m houses in central London. ASP is ~£269k per unit which gives the the ~25% margin. All this segmentation information is provided in the accounts.

You know what ...

Yeah, looks like politicians have targeted this week, and PSN in particular to try and position themselves on the side of the purchaser, verses the big bad builders. Opportunistic. Shame, will likely set builders back now just as you know what is also coming to a head.

Be interesting to see whether tomorrow’s negative headlines re PSN and HTB, negatively affects the whole sector on Monday. Seems the timing is no coincidence given PSN results on Tuesday.

Hi Fred, see what next weeks finals bring. Maybe something interesting, apart from the basic numbers.

Hmmm, I fear the situation re deal / no deal will have a far greater impact on the share price. I sense that the builders will start wobbling again until there is a clear statement ruling out no deal.

Hi Troublesome, I have traded Wimps for many years now and I am exposed to a considerable position. Normally I would trade the ups and downs, however I feel that they is no real parliamentary leadership at the moment. I’m not sure that Mrs May is putting the country first, and is more focussed on internal politics. If we agreed a deal, then that’s ok, however it seems that she is spellbound by trying to accommodate the ERG and DUP and that the country will suffer big time. There is no doubt that the builders are a proxy for Brexit, no deal they will tank and if we get a deal of some sort then business as usual. I’ll decide over next couple of weeks if I should just get out because the risk is too great, It’s hard to believe that we really will commit an action of self harm on this scale. If we drop to 160(ish) then I’m probably out.

Seems that in last few trading days the builders are reflecting the market nervousness, re perceived risk of “no deal” increasing. Looks like Mrs May’s plan A, B and C is to run down the clock and then hope the vote to accept her deal carries. Or should I say the EU’s deal. HIGH risk strategy IMHO. Builders will tank if that’s the case. Corbyn probably quite happy for Mrs May and the Torries to take the blame, so I guess he will just play along pretending to engage and step back at the last minute.

Not withstanding you know what, trading updates from Barratt and Redrow tomorrow, and Bellway on Thursday should set the tone for the week.

Hi Bamps. Wimps dividend policy states that the normal maintenance dividend will be ~ 7.5% of net asset value, with a mini of £250m. £250m equates to ~ 7.66p. This will be split equally, so that means interim and final dividends should be at least 3.83p, plus £350m special this year.

I should add, that tomorrow’s update from BVS is good then we should be fine.

IMHO, I don’t think the Market will tank tomorrow after Mrs May’s deal is almost certainly voted down. That’s factored in to the Market now. Parliament will now not allow a no deal exit, so things are looking up. Hence a strengthening FTSE as we head to the vote. I suspect Wimps weakness today is due to a lukewarm PSN update. However, I sense Wimps will strengthen going forward now. Of course, we will have down days but the trend should firm.

Question is, do we want Mrs May’s deal to be accepted by the MP’s tonight and the relief rally that will kick off whilst the next couple of years are spent jaw jawing re details of trade agreements. Or would it be better if Mrs May’s deal rejected and a wobbly few weeks in the Market, with a potential outcome of remain as the MP’s run out of options they can agree on. Which will light a bigger fire under the Market, and no doubt remove the current constraints on the building sector. A bird in the hand ? Of course, my comment just relates to Market performance and not personal politics re leave or remain.

For those who are interested, Canaccord take on the building sector for next year.

Value potential is extremely attractive but macro risks are exceptionally high. Over the last few years, while there has been pressure on margins and the market in London and the South-East at the higher end has slowed, the sector has generally defied the macro doomsayers and continued to deliver strong profits, attractive dividends and net asset growth. In 2018, share prices performed very poorly as Brexit related macro fears intensified and the autumn selling season looked a bit wanting, particularly at higher price points. We look into 2019 with the sector pricing in significant risk and presenting a very attractive potential value opportunity assuming we avoid a painful housing recession. For us, with strong balance sheets, capital discipline, a supportive land market and extension to Help to Buy, the key issue remains macro. Our crude sensitivity analysis in this note shows that the sector appears to be broadly pricing in a 5% fall in house prices and a 10% fall in volumes and if the actual outcome for 2019, is at or close to current consensus expectations, we would expect a sharp value rally; we have not changed estimates but see downside risk if the continuing political drama spills into next year. Our top picks are Bellway, MJ Gleeson and Persimmon with more caution around Crest Nicholson and Telford Homes.

Clearly the macro outlook remains the big call for 2019 and there is an unusual lack of visibility. Consensus forecasts point to low single digit percentage GDP growth with unemployment and interest rates remaining at low levels. Assuming that the macro backdrop remains relatively supportive, we would expect the new housing market to deliver modest volume growth of c.+1-2% combined with modest house price inflation of c.+1-2%. Build cost inflation is expected to ease a little to c.+3-4% and generally flat to easing land costs coming through. The live risk for us relates to sales rates, particularly in the Spring selling season next year and this is likely to be driven by confidence and employment expectations.

Just to be clear, Wimps has not signaled a share buyback. All they are doing is correcting an error in one of the resolutions in last years AGM. This a a standing resolution (18) which is voted on every year. Interesting why it was not spotted earlier. Of course, maybe the thought of a buyback had crossed the minds of the BoD, which caused them to review the resolution and spot the error, although that is a bit of a stretch. Worth remembering that buybacks are not always beneficial, especially as Wimps has previously destroyed a large amount of shareholder value (hundreds of millions) the last time they undertook a buyback. It’s an option for the next special distribution, but I suspect the world will look different by then, along with the map of Europe.