Member Info for WiganWarriors

However, he is the President of the EU, and not in charge of the 27. That job belongs to Donald Tusk, and some of the 27 may prefer an extension. So I think that they would offer an extension if Parliament do not vote for the deal. Also, if Parliament do not vote for a deal, there could be a vote of no confidence and temporary Government in situ pending General Election. Some EU members might prefer that as likely another referendum or public approval of any deal might then be required. Just means more chaos for at least six months though.

I think it is tight, but it's in the balance. Some MP's will succumb and vote for the deal given the consequences of more turmoil, and maybe DUP will crumble in return for the usual bung. Bit like trading shares, sometimes momentum overplays underlying sentiment ... we will see.

I have to say, schadenfreude springs to mind as the DUP have had their bluff called ... Can you hear that, listen carefully ... is that the sound of punters rushing to secure their new build now we have a few years of transition ... be interesting to see whether reservations jump this weekend assuming it scrapes through parliament on Saturday. If it fails, then another couple of weeks turmoil ...

Well, 1% drop in margin is around 5% in actual operating profit. That’s quite a lot. Also, warning of the likelihood of reducing further is likely to spook the market. If Brexit resolved itself with anything but crash out, then builders will recover. Otherwise ...

Failing margins, and outlook more of the same. Just like Wimps suffered after interims.

Hi Tom, tomorrows "official" opening price is 163.75, as set by the closing auction. So if you set at 165 to sell, and the SP does fall straight away then your order is unlikely to be executed. Also, if any significant news flow occurs over the weekend, then you should expect "gapping" to occur, in which case if you are dealing through a retail broker don't hold your breath as your order won't be at the front of the queue. IMHO, if you set to sell at 165 then if it gaps down you won't execute, and if it gaps up then it will, but I don't think that was your intention.

As for the "late" sales, they are likely just late bookings of transaction that occurred earlier in the day. Therefore they are measured against the closing auction price which means you have no idea whether they were actually sales or buys as they occurred earlier when the SP was different.

Finally, I closed out a large(ish) SB position at 1625(ish) hrs without any problems and it completed at the normal discount to the cash market. So that tells me there was no selling pressure at close. IMHO, Mondays open will depend on this weekend news flow, and if nothing untoward then I reckon Monday might be another steady / good day for builders.

RR. Well, I reckon that leaving has been priced into the market for a while now. Its all about deal / no deal. Don't forget that Oct 31st (or technical extension for practical purposes) is about agreeing the broad terms of leaving, and if that happens we have a period of time (was two years) to detail the nitty gritty of future relationship etc. So a deal could be agreed in principle, subject to ratification beyond 31st. Once that is done then a couple of years to sort out the detail and not much will change, until i's dotted and t's crossed, unless during this time we have an election focussed on leave / remain or new referendum.

As for DUP, I am guessing that Boris has decided he can get a deal through UK Parliament without DUP support (10 votes), as many labour and a few others will settle for a deal.

If I was a betting man, I would say Boris is planning on customs boarder down Irish Sea, vote to get through Parliament and then big giveaway budget to get Tories (and him in power) for five years. Whatever then happens during the two year negotiation process will happen, maybe we stay, or maybe we leave. Either way, this kicks the can down the road.

Also, WTO was formed to help emerging economies trade with wealthier countries and provides some advantages for the poorer countries. However, at the moment, we are not an emerging economy so we will not get any relief. Although with a collapsing £ we can't afford to import much, and if we slash WTO tariffs for essential foods then we have to do that on a global basis, so no picking and choosing. WTO is not the answer for advanced economies.

Looking to the future, if we get a deal, or new referendum, or just stay then happy days for the SP. If we crash out, and lash out at Europe on the way, then I guess we are likely trading lower for a few years as the mess unfolds. Maybe 120 -- 130 ? In which case private equity may be interested, on a five year view. Problem is though if trading 120 - 130 (ish) then they will only pay , maybe 150 (ish). So all the potential recovery and intrinsic value (cash flow) of the business will go to PE.

However, my personal view is that Boris and his cronies are just realising what a mess they are in, and trying to cause as much chaos as possible to try and shift the blame. They seem to think that they will win an election, however, if its chaos in the country then we will end up with no clear winner, and potential coalition, or worse. The world must be looking on GB with amusement , and any idea that we will still command any authority in world order is just about exhausted. Banana republic anyone ?

Ah, sorry, I withdraw that part of my comment. However, I think the remainder is still valid; unfortunately.

Nothing to do with the BoD, their job is to run the business as best they can in the current circumstances. As it seems Boris has lost any control that he thought he might have of the Brexit situation, crashing out and disrespecting the whole of Europe will likely the cause untold damage to our economy. The BoD can only play what’s in front of them.

Yeah, not trying to talk them down. Just providing some balance to normal one sided comments. IMHO, the best option to get the share price moving north would be to remove the CEO and reinstall confidence so the large investors will look again. Seems that IMB have suffered from poor management.

If revenues rise 2%, and that’s a big if, given poor track record management have providing accurate guidance. What about expenses, if these rise more than 2% (likely) then operating profits fall.

All talk of dividends being covered relate to historical data, in twelve months the picture might look different if revenues continue to fall and negative news flow re vaping continues.

They finished at 163.05 to sell. However the closing auction price was 163.55 at 1635 hrs, so that's the opening price tomorrow.

My last word on the topic. However, you confirm my point. All speculative fluff with no substance. Nothing of substance beyond jam tomorrow so far. Let's revisit this conversation in a couple of months.

Seems the Public Accounts Committee's latest report on Help to Buy, and subsequent write up by the Telegraph (somewhat selective and biased re the findings), has spooked the builders today.

Well, hope you guys are right. However, if significant gold deposits have been established, why has the SP not risen ? I think you mean to say that samples have showed promise subject to further qualification, which may, or may not yield gold in commercial quantities. Like oil, gold deposits are not uncommon, just that they are more often than not uncommercial to develop. Either way, time will tell. Whoever turns out to be right can stand a round :-)

Hmmm, what happens if there is no gold. To paraphrase the old adage ... an unproven gold mine is nothing more that a hole in the ground with a bunch of liars stood atop. As we know markets anticipate, and so far they have not seen fit to move the GGP SP forward. IMHO I would be very careful, very careful indeed

typo ... " are not selling too well ..."