Member Info for WiganWarriors

If anyone interested in factually based stats re "leasehold",

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/leaseholdandfreeholdresidentialpropertytransactionsinenglandandwales/2018

For some reason fallen off a cliff ... Interesting that North West England seems to be, and still is the hot spot for people buying leasehold properties.

Should have said Channel Four, for tonights expose.

Be interesting to see if tomorrow evenings BBC "exposé", mainly PSN related, will but a dampers on the building sector. If not, then maybe the sector is ready to move forwards regardless.

As one of the older contributors to this BB, I remember Churchmouse. I guess that eventually we will all succumb, just a matter of timing.

Well, to be fair, NANO was always a “story stock”. It never produced anything and just burned through initial seed money and subsequent capital injections. It was constantly ramped as having developed innovative technology, but never delivered anything commercial. This is a lesson for those who are influenced by BB gossip, without any real knowledge of what it is they are investing in.

I meant to say a majority for only leaving with a deal.

Well, there were 47 abstentions from the vote. I reckon this reflects the number of politicians that did not want to upset their party whips by going against the party line at this point in time. So, I reckon when push comes to shove as we approach October future votes will reflect a no deal majority. Problem is all Tories angling for jobs, so pigs at trough politics again.

The latest notification shows that Woodford sold approximately 26,224,000 shares in TW, since his previous notification.

Hmmm, reminds me of the old adage. When it was pointed out to a car salesman that he was losing money on every car he sold, he replied not to worry, as he would make it up on volume ...

Solley, could I respectfully I ask why you think the SP should be going up because we are approaching ex-div date. All things being equal, the SP will drop by the value of the dividend when ex-div trading starts. So nothing to be gained, and from that point it is business as usual, the SP might rise, or it might fall.

Well, I don’t think Boris has the courage to take us out with no deal (assuming he is the chosen one), as despite the voracity of the Brexit party there will be equal pressure for other options as midnight approaches. Boris ‘s track record is to move on and never deliver. Witness his stand on Heathrow Terminal Four, “ over my dead body ...” and then conveniently skipped the country to avoid the vote.

Boris will take whatever position is necessary to get the job, either hard or soft Brexit. Or for that matter another vote. He would prefer to be out, as he and a few mates from the Tory right can “govern “ the country with no need to participate in EU matters, which are probably beyond him anyway. From the EU perspective, I guess the feeling is mutual. However, seems unlikely that the Tory right wing will get a no deal through parliament anyway, so maybe a general election in the offing later this year. Either way, builders unlikely to prosper in this continued negative backdrop. Plenty of time to buy more at fire sale prices over the next six months, and hold for the long term

Hi Tom. Respectfully, not sure how calculate that the special dividend will reduce your current loss by 50%. All things being equal your cash account will increase by the dividend, and your share account will fall by the value of the dividend. You will also attract a tax obligation for the dividend, so you are actually worse off.

Hi Graham. Well, as we know the Market perceives the builders as a direct proxy for a Brexit deal / no deal, and that pushes TW SP around depending on Brexit newsflow. Never forget, it’s the Market that sets the SP, regardless of any valuation techniques. Also, bear in mind that normally maintenance dividends are absorbed and generally the SP recovers from ex div on profitable well run companies, as they will be expected to generate ongoing profits going forward. Special dividends are a different kettle of fish, these are one off (albeit sometimes repeated as in the builders case), but the Market does not see these as ongoing revenue stream with the same certainty as normal maintenance dividends. So, you should not expect the SP to recover from special dividend payouts as they are generally used to offload excess cash. Because they are so large, it affects their asset valuation of the company, and in TW case they are giving all cash away every year so company is not expecting to grow. IMHO, given the Market perception of builders then next ex div won’t recover , and may well fall further.

House Builders. Likely builders nervous again re Brexit and increased risk of Boris becoming leader, increasing risk of no deal. Foxtons news flow trigger for mark down. Increasing risk of further falls once ex div.

Hi Fred, they have been firming up lately. See what tomorrow’s update brings. Maybe we are back on the upward trajectory again after last years profit warning, although not cheap at these prices.

I was pointing out that this July (Interims), is when they announce another special for the following year; 2020. With forecast £500 at year end, similar to last year then this July they are likely to announce same again for 2020. As for normal maintenance dividends they are committed as per calculation based on net asset values.

Well, I reckon forecasting £500m cash at year end is a clue that they will confirm another special this July. Same cash as last year.

I suspect the current trading will be strong, with a good Easter. Much depends on you know what affecting the SP. However, I believe the Market is winning out over the doom and gloom merchants recently, and we may even hold the line after the special is paid this time.

Brexit news flow causing the upset.