Member Info for WhiteHorse7

Agree one would likely not, but let's be honest there is no way to work out the experience level of anyone that may be reading this chat.

@SlownSteady - you are welcome. Holding JEMA has been such a lonely place over the past couple of years, so glad to find others on the same boat, and finally some hopeful signs for a peace deal. Scholz call with Putin yesterday and the statement from Zelensky today do not believe are unrelated. Good sign that all parties have been 'talked' to

Re: Valuations

As always, Do your own research and due diligence; do not rely on strangers' opinions on the internet.

The FT article believe it was a simple reversal of the 99% discount applied by JPM to the MOEX holdings valuations (that's equivalent to the 431p I posted a week ago). What we then have, and feel free to apply your own assumptions there:

1. Sanctions fully lifted

c. 430p

2. £25.2m of dividends confirmed as received (for valuation purposes, add dividends to the NAV...although in reality they could all be paid out as a one-off special dividend, or partially paid out and rest invested within the Trust)

3. £7.9m of dividends owed that as of Mar-24(?) all JEMA stated was: that as of that point the £7.9m were not received into their Russian bank account. They never confirmed if received since, unless I have missed any comms or special RNS

c. 510p (£211m portfolio)

4. RUB recovery from 125ish back to recent historical levels pre invasion (I assume this will be a slow recovery over time)

600-630p

5. Recovery of the individual companies' share performance. i.e. Oilers and Banks recover trade sans international sanctions

780-860p

So my assessment is this could worth anything between 53.23p and 860 , incl. stated dividends. Take your pick and DYOR

Indeed. What a whirlwind of a week this has been; complete change of sentiment reflected by the volume of purchases following the election results.

Spent more time this morning looking at the JEMA valuation, reviewing each individual (MOEX) underlying company performance since 2022. To my surprise LUKOIL is holding off well, where Gazprom has taken a complete hammering. Rest show a 15-40% drop in share price since the invasion. My earlier assessment of 600-630p only reflected recovery of the RUB strength, post lifting of sanctions, and MOEX shares valued at 100% of today's share prices. If we assume recovery of the underlying share prices performance, at least back to 2021 levels, then we are looking at a forecasted NAV of 780-860p.

Light at the end of the tunnel at last is in sight, and I am more hopeful now that no frozen assets (either in the US or in Russia) are going to be liquidated by either side.

Fundamentally, JPMorgan will file an appeal, and the appeal process will take two months, so no surprises here to expectations. As mentioned below US elections will be key; new President will be a known quantity by then.

Very limited information around the court case, but came across the following recently which best describes what is at stake. $2,4Bn of JPMorgan assets (in S accounts, similarly to the JEMA Russian holdings). Obviously the JEMA russian holdings are a drop in the ocean of the overall frozen assets. S Accounts have been frozen and there was supposed to be further guidance & presidential orders issued earlier in the year (on next steps). This never actually happened (so for now I treat the lack of clarity as a 'positive' sign; i.e. tit for tat positioning)

https://tlblog.org/jpmorgan-caught-up-in-u-s-sanctions-against-russia/

Monday this week run a valuation at the whole portfolio, as it has been a year since I last looked at it. In a nutshell, post sanctions, with current GBP/RUB rate the real NAV for the assets would be £431/share. Then there are £25.2m+£7.9m of dividends, giving a total NAV of £510/share. Normality returning to the Fx rate would make this a future NAV of £600-630.

I am clueless as most on what the future holds, but my thesis at the moment is there will be no Yandex type half value sell downs; this will be an all or nothing outcome (so 50% loss, or a 6-bagger).

Good luck everyone

Would place odds against seizure, though long term recovery linked to US elections. Can see this potentially dragging for a long time, until some normality returns. Yesterday bought a further 9,000 shares and I am a Hold for now. Will re-assess early November.

What everyone else doing?