Member Info for WhiteHorse7

At last a tangible step forward. Even without anything being agreed per se this Thursday, this is the closest we got in 3 years honing into a meaningful conclusion - the tide has definitely turned, and the rhetoric softened on both sides. Just the fact they are both willing to talk to each other is progress!

Both appear to be listening (i.e. bullied into submission) to Trump and his diplomacy through social media. Putin softened and buckled to whatever call may have taken place with the US on Saturday (his spokesman was mocking the 'sanctions' proposal from the EU/UKR meeting, but something must have taken place between Saturday afternoon and late night to change his stance and do the 2am televised speech). And we have gone from UKR not wanting a ceasefire, to actually being the ones chasing to sign a ceasefire over the past month (which will include freeze of current front lines and a buffer zone; which was the main sticking point over the past two years).

Almost there :)

Meeting confirmation for tomorrow

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-trump-russia-moscow-kyiv-peace-talks-latest-12541713?postid=9481448#liveblog-body

Let's see. Started the week with 'Zelensky agreed the peace proposal in principle' to today's statements that 'Ukraine will not cede any territory'. Hard to judge whether there has been any progress behind the scenes and what we see is playing tunes on the media for the home audiences (both in UKR and US), or whether actually there is still no concession to be given from UKR. Maybe Trump's ramblings last week on pulling out of being mediator were prepping the ground for 'I told you this guy is hard to do business with...'.

It will be quite telling whether Witkoff does travel to Moscow or not this week.

The share price drop today set all my portfolio alarm bells going, and reminded me I haven't been here in a while. Life got in the way, but also because although a lot appears to be going on, nothing fundamental has happened over the past two weeks (even the 'ceasefires' are a bit of smoke & mirror, IMO). GBP/RUB appears steady; and valuation is still there or thereabouts.; we tested the 300p threshold, and there was also an £1m buy week before.

So 70 days after inauguration and Trump appears to be losing pace with his 'peace deal with one phone call' crusade. Anyway, waited 3 years, so what's another few months between friends.

However, what I did find quite interesting within the sea of low value news, is the following:

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-cdu-nord-stream-russia-gas-afd-far-right/a-72060104

Obviously this would mean Gazprom would be back in business as usual; but what is interesting is the complete shift in US policy since the Biden administration, but also prominent CDU politicians being in favor of the proposal. Appears that the US has been talking to the Russian delegation for a while, about being involved with Nordstream. Presume take their 'cut' for brokering a peace deal 😒

Talking of share price, someone was offloading £60-65k through the afternoon today, in 11 lots of small buys and then the actual sell orders. They need to go back to school on how the bid/ask spread works 😂

In a nutshell, because it is not material enough to move the share pric. It shows positive intent nevertheless though that the goodwill is there (and I personally thought the timing of that announcement may not be coincidental, a day prior to the Tuesday call)

My uninformed guess is that first significant movement upwards will be when a ceasefire is announced (maybe tomorrow?); and even prior to a peace plan agreement this should settle at 350-400p. We know (from media reports) that sanctions were part of the discussions at Riyadh, during the 1st US/RUS meeting

Https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2025/03/17/putin-allows-some-western-funds-to-sell-russian-securities/

Looking promising indeed - Putin playing difficult (for his home audience), but suspect he will agree very soon to an initial ceasefire.

If I wasn't already so over leveraged on this, I would be topping up earlier today; share price will be heading one way from now on

False alarm - probably VZ was not remorseful enough

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/03/04/donald-trump-congress-address-ukraine-aid-russia-war-live/

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/03/04/donald-trump-congress-address-ukraine-aid-russia-war-live/

Done/signed (allegedly)

Article states: "The chancellor and the Ukrainian finance minister will also sign the £2.26 billion UK-Ukraine bilateral loan agreement. It marks the first time the money generated from the appreciation of frozen Russian assets will be used for military purposes.".

So not seizing any assets per se (i.e. any retaliation would be in equal terms...so let's hope Trump brings this to a closure in the following month to avoid tit-for-tat). Even in a seizure scenario, I very much doubt Putin would seize US assets (domicile of a subsidiary is irrelevant). I personally treat it as no news for now

Oh dear me. Negotiation tactic backfired; assuming the strategy was to fly all the way there, put some last minute pressure to improve the terms, knowing there is press conference to come in an hour, and not sign the deal? Strange approach. The following was posted after he left the White House (likely posted 'on his behalf'):

"Thank you America, thank you for your support, thank you for this visit," Zelenskyy posted on X. "Thank you @POTUS. Congress, and the American people. Ukraine needs just and lasting peace, and we are working exactly for that."

There is a key statement during the conversation: "You tell me you don't want a ceasefire...I want a ceasefire". He strongly emphasises the 'I' and Trump's body language is 'I am telling ya, not asking you'. I feel for Zelensky and the points he is trying to make, but that relationship is truly broken; would make sense Ukraine delegates future talks to someone who could create better rapport with the benefactors (Ukraine's PM appears a bit more articulate)

Quelle Surprise 😉

"The Russian court has postponed the appeal hearing in relation to a claim granted to VTB Bank against eight J.P. Morgan legal entities and JEMA to 28th May 2025. No seizure of J.P. Morgan's assets under the VTB judgment is expected to take place during this time. We will continue to provide further details to our clients as the situation develops."

In other news:

- Macron confident there will be a truce in the coming weeks

- Ukraine agreed a 'deal' to be signed Friday in person

- Russia indicated part of the discussions involved US companies investing in Russia

All positive sound bites so far on reaching a conclusion

@SlownSteady I got that far, but there were no links to Docs attached (as is usual). Anyway, got the answer. Details in the 2024 Accounts (link below - page 88 onwards):

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/emea/gb/en/regulatory/annual-report/ar-emerging-europe-middle-east-africa-securities-plc-2024.pdf

Special instructions appear to relate to share capital issue.

On another note, a lot of interesting trades yesterday - do folks actually believe that they are influencing the share price by moving the spread on sale orders of single shares!? Baffling trading behavior

Email sent, so let's see if we get a response on Monday. Particularly clarification around the Issue of equity without pre-emptive rights; maybe I am overly suspicious (I have to be)

Company Secretary: invtrusts.cosec@jpmorgan.com

On another note, has anyone seen any details issued behind the AGM vote proxy motions? I could still not find anything posted. Sloppy. Will drop an email now to the Trust secretary

Feels like we are on the final straight now. Based on what happened this week, the outcome starts to become certainty (the Fox interview with Kilmeade is very telling - I would not be surprised if Kellogg was there yesterday to explain what has been decided already, hence the toddler tantrum pre meeting). What is still the wild card (small probability, but you never know) is what JPM may do post lifting sanctions.

Not worried anymore about the VTB court next week; if you recall I posted a few months ago that JPM has $2.4 Billion in frozen assets. No-one will touch the assets of an American company (whether the Judge rules For or Against VTB is a moot point).

Goldengod, thank you. Just assumed ADR parity to common stock. Need to do some more digging.

🤞

Re-run the portfolio valuation; the 431p (2nd Jan) is now 541p, and the increase was led by a combination of strengthening of the RUB, but also increase in share prices of the underlying Russian holdings (contribution of each pretty much in equal measures).

Total portfolio value of £218m (was £170m on 2nd of January), of which £23m is the non-Russian holdings

Significant recovery on the underlying share prices (MOEX, in RUB), in particular for Gazprom, Polyus, Sberbank and Novatek:

Holding Security Description Security No. Share Price-RUB Valuation-GBP Share price % Change since early 2nd Jan25

8,860,909 GAZPROM PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB X8C529A 168.1 £13,011,171 30.65%

5,365,084 GAZPROM PJSC ADR X84C976 168.1 £7,877,975 30.65%

29,773.000 POLYUS PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB X84D1F8 18240 £4,743,706 30.46%

1,268,490 NOVATEK PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.1 X84C972 1,219.00 £13,507,069 26.48%

103,572 NOVATEK PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.1 X84C970 1,219.00 £1,102,850 26.48%

7,119,200 MMC NORILSK NICKEL PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 1 X84C977 131.5 £8,177,628 16.68%

14,455,036 SBERBANK OF RUSSIA PJSC PREFERENCE RUB 3 X8C6155 309.87 £39,126,328 13.82%

2,355,925 SBERBANK OF RUSSIA PJSC X8C6398 309.87 £6,376,926 13.82%

4,246,654.000 VTB BANK PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.01 X8C6392 87.8 £3,256,955 12.87%

6,156,103.000 ROSTELECOM PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB X84C978 72.4 £3,893,273 12.60%

730,066 TATNEFT PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB X84C973 717 £4,572,478 7.22%

571,359 TATNEFT PJSC PREFERENCE RUB 1 X8C6150 717 £3,578,480 7.22%

12,313,057.000 SISTEMA PJSFC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.09 X84D1F7 16.12 £1,733,809 7.18%

362,649 LUKOIL PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.025 RUB X84C974 7493 £23,736,277 5.21%

262,047 LUKOIL PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB X84D1F5 7493 £17,151,626 5.21%

3,657,350 NOVOLIPETSK STEEL PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB X84C97E 148.58 £4,746,760 2.80%

552,780.000 SEVERSTAL PAO GDR USD X84C975 1308 £6,315,830 2.11%

1,265,335 GAZPROM NEFT PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB X84D1F6 624 £6,897,004 -1.25%

180,877 MAGNIT PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.01 X8C505A 4938 £7,801,980 -1.56%

2,041,744 ROSNEFT OIL CO PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB 0.01 X84C971 562.00 £10,023,237 -5.72%

1,677,948 ROSNEFT OIL CO PJSC COMMON STOCK RUB X84D1F9 562.00 £8,237,306 -5.72%

On dividends, what we know is: as of end of Oct-24 there is £31.6m accounted in the S-account, and £3.6m not accounted yet back then, but was expected. Unclear if the £2.3m Detsky MIR disposal is part of the £31.6m or incremental. So we have there 87p (at least) of confirmed Dividends. I would expect post lifting of sanctions JEMA will pay out a Special dividend; unlikely £35m+ would be fully re-invested.

So in a world where sanctions are lifted we are already valued at 541p; I foresee RUB/GBP to eventually settle at around 95 (655p), and recovery of the underlying Russian holdings through 2025 to give an 800-830p valuation in H1 2026

Plus the Dividends already accumulated in the S-account.

Hopefully they will not wind up the Trust post recovery. The fundamentals on why i originally invested in JRS are still there, and see this a long term hold for me (bar some profit taking post recovery).

Talking of how they have kept shareholders up to date; there is the proxy vote for the AGM, yet I cannot find any documentation with explanations/details behind the motions under vote. You would expect standard practice is that those details are publicly available, else how do we know what we are voting for?