Member Info for WhiteHorse7

Some chunky buys today. RUB/GBP movement is the cherry on top 😁 Will re-run the 'hypothetical' portfolio valuation at a quieter time and share, if anyone interested

Can't tell me I didn't warn ya that on Thursday there would be a lift off. Next announcement , any announcement prior to an actual negotiated ceasefire position, should be igniting the rocket boosters

Long day - just picked on the news. Expecting an initial share price lift off tomorrow 🤞

Busy weeks on the news front:

- Both US and Russia have now confirmed that there has been 'increased contact' over the past week; their respective delegations have been discussing terms & redlines it appears

- Zelensky has publicly stated he is willing to meet with Putin, as long as US/EU are participating. Late Feb/early March

- Kellogg expected to communicate details of the peace plan at the Munich Security Conference (14-16th Feb)

- US disbanded the task force set up in 2022 with the aim to seize Russian Oligarchs' assets; i.e. there is no intent to seize anything further. That also indirectly means there is no intentito seize any assets, Oligarch or not, as I mentioned a while ago on here

- 18 days left till the VTB court proceedings; my guess is it will be postponed again. Will keep an eye on any announcements the week prior

- JEMA 0.5p dividend announcement - surprised how low it is for a second year in a row under the new Portfolio

Getting there

"And the last one didnt?"

Hopefully I will be proven wrong, but he appears to be off the charts this time around (beyond the chlorine/vaccines obsession, rest of his last term was pretty docile relatively speaking). He genuinely believes God wanted him to survive the assassination to Make America Great again

This presidency term will provide an unlimited amount of comedy grade material 😂

And the latest from President extraordinaire 😁

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/02/01/trump-says-white-house-had-serious-discussions-with-russia-about-ukraine-war

"US President Donald Trump has said his administration has had "very serious" discussions with Russia about the war in Ukraine and that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon take "significant" action toward ending the almost three-year conflict.

"We will be speaking and I think will perhaps do something that’ll be significant," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office."

Going through the recent RNSs - looks like the £2m buy was Whiteford Capital, which resulted in the dilution of City Of London's major holding update (which still remains the largest single shareholder of JEMA).

Similarly to Camac, small private equity funds with obscure publicly available details around their portfolios or customers; both NY based. Anyway, I shall take this as a promising sign that the 'smart money' are punting for a front raw seat

Highly promising sign

Camac it is - Thank you 👍 Love their insightful website

37 days to go till court date, so hoping for some tangible news soon

You are welcome 👍

On another note, there was a US private equity firm that bought a large stake early 2024 (or was it late 2023?). Does anyone remember the name of the Firm? Believe there was an RNS to notify of shareholding of significant control.

Revisited this Friday my earlier mid-Nov valuation; in a nutshell not a lot has changed wrt potential outcome(s).

As of 02/01/25 share prices for the Russian holdings, and GBP/RUB at 137.19, the NAV would be 421p (vs 430p as of mid Nov). So at current Fx, this would give a 'hypothetical' £170m of portfolio valuation as of today (of which £22.5m is the non Russian holdings equivalent to the reported 55.82p NAV).

Surprisingly the weakening of the RUB has been offset by share price increases since (mainly on ROSNEFT, MMC, LUKOIL TATNEFT and POLYUS). Presume that's the byproduct of high inflation at work, to a degree. Deterioration in share prices since are seen for GAZPROM NEFT, SISTEMA and ROSTELECOM.

Hope this helps

Interesting re: UK court case, though not sure UK contract law trumps (excuse the pun :) ) US sanctions (or Russian ones, for that matter). So likely the date more relevant to us is the 26th Feb. I am no law expert, but in my simple mind this is a USA vs RUS stand-off (where the Trusts or the company subsidiaries are registered geographically is irrelevant).

57 days to go till then, and 20 days to inauguration - so hoping for some positive news in between those dates. Rumours over the weekend that there are talks already underway...

Best wishes everyone - and hope 2025 is the pivotal year for us

Chunky buys indeed on Thursday, including a single trade of 67k shares. 200p appears to be the resistance, which should have flushed out the 'retail day' traders by now.

Promising soundbites following the Paris meeting. Would not be surprised if there is a ceasefire in the following weeks

https://kyivindependent.com/trump-zelensky-ready-to-make-a-deal-on-the-war-in-ukraine/

Thank you for sharing. Just watched the full interview - really encouraging, and now both parties are publicly talking of wanting to negotiate a peace deal

Forgot to mention. The trade patterns yesterday & today feel odd, incl. a post close transaction of 163,000 shares today. Will be interesting to check in the morning if that's confirmed as a Buy

Avocet123 have to confess I was really confused as well :)

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago; I genuinely see this a binary outcome. Treating it as a speculative punt, where the worst case is end up holding 53p worth of uninteresting holdings (which I would personally never invest in the first place). But the upside is early retirement time! Adjust your risk appetite accordingly, and recite some Warren Buffet quotes on Fear & Greed

For context: I held the original JRS IT , and I averaged down to c. 120p. Still not selling, as the reward at the moment outweights the risk. Only thing would scupper this, would be Biden starting a WW3; i guess in that case, the least of our problems would be recovery of our investments

Thank you Lawabider. RT news has been inaccessible for me since the ban.

Looks like they are talking about the interest generated from the frozen assets held in Russia...which is equivalent to recent EU stipulation that they will raid the interest of Russian assets abroad to fund the war. No news basically. So far, neither side is enacting any measures to seize any underlying assets.

So sticking to my plan. Just need to stop looking until the 20th Jan (easier said than done), as this will be traded like a yo yo until the OAP President is sent to his retirement

@Lawabider

Could you please share an extract of the article? RT is blocked on my network (presume UK wide ban to ensure we, free thinkers, remain 'impartial')

Re: Divs,

Depending what RUB/GBP you use, currently there should be 52p of dvis frozen in an S account (the £25.2m JEMA confirmed earlier in the year, divided by 40.43m shares), and the £7.2m awarded but never received a confirmation of receipt in the S account. The latter would be another 18p (so 80p total).

JPM upped their target price to 655p. Momentum appears to keep building up from analysts (SMR or not)!

When will the Yanks remove their blocking of Russian funds, allowing for the release of JEMA Investments?

----------------

When the peace deal is signed by both parties. I expect economic sanctions to be part of the negotiation deal, and implementation to be relatively immediate. EU will follow what US decides, as with any international sanctions & export control rules.

What date this will happen, I have no idea! (according to Trump on the 21st January...if one believes the 'will take a phone call in 24hrs' pre-election posturing). I certainly don't believe it will take 24hrs :D