RE: Gervaise Heddle reiterates, DON't FORGET THE COPPER!30 Jan 2021 10:42
Thanks, as ever, to Paddy.
I have a timing observation, though. Your numbers and reasoning are sound, but only really work as an average with an average grade.
Here's where the time element gets interesting. Of course we don't know the full mining plan yet as, well, there isn't one (it hasn't been fully developed yet). The expectation, though is that initial ore will be from a stoping operation from mainly the high grade sulphide zone(s). The mining costs will be higher (as the mine is being developed), but the initial grades will be higher too.
I can see the potential of the AISC turning negative in the first years of full production. As the mine develops with block caving coming online, there will be the economies of block caving, but lower grades, so we may well move more towards your $500.
An interesting lesson in mine economics playing out in real time for us!