RE: Australian MF9 Nov 2020 08:02
The new Telfer (with Hav ore) AISC is not one number. It all depends on circumstances.
Initially we should have some ore from the exploration decline which will prove up what can be done for the PFS. AISC for this will be high as it will be a low throughput until the infrastructure is better defined and built.
I suspect that NCM will target the sulphide (higher grade) ores first whilst planning/building declines for bulk mining of the breccias. We will need to wait until we get the PFS to see exactly how they will plan all this and wen it happens. The AISC for the high grade sulphides will largely depend on the grade that comes out of the ground. Currently we can only guess on how much and when. Maybe $600 ish - with a very large margin of error.
Once the bulk mining gets going we can use Cadia as an example. Don't grab the Cadia ASIC number as it is, though. We need to compare the relative copper content as the copper comes in as a deduction to to the AISC. If we have better copper grades, this implies a lower AISC etc.
So, initially we will have a high AISC. over time this should come down, but we will need to factor in the 'how, when and why' of the mine design. Ultimately we should approach near Cadia but, in my opinion/guess, this will be in 6 - 8 years time.
IMO, the more important (short term) drivers of value will be the MRE along with the price of gold.
Well, that's my thoughts/expectations anyway. I didn't read the boards over the weekend - messy?