Member Info for wealthtrasfer

If this wasn't so tragic it would be laughable "Unite general secretary, Sharon Graham, said: “National Express is an extremely wealthy company and makes considerable profits from the hard work of our members...". Absolutely not true, unless Unite now represents the company at Alsa and North America, UK Coach and Transit. Absolute rubbish and greed from Unite.

LG, I think he can receive them in a closed period, under the scheme for the 2021 year they relate to, as the vesting has no connection to the current period but don’t think they could be sold in closed period even if just to pay tax for receiving them which is the case here.

This is what Liberum said on downgrade ""We had seen the disposal of most or all of the North American business as a route to rapid deleveraging. Unfortunately, a weaker-than-expected performance has eroded the potential value and debt reduction potential." Maybe they just didnt get what they wanted?

ps I havent mentioned take over but I believe there is something of a Material nature, this could be a contract or finance or anything positive or negative.

Hi Manz, not trying to get hopes up as non of us know for sure. However it is a reasonable assumption that a new CFO, particularly one that is so bullish on the company's future, would be looking to show confidence and buy in. The company would also be very keen for him to do so too. This is the purpose of the board to share ideas and views otherwise why is anyone here?

To clarify, Im not sure if it applies to updated or full financial reporting. The code states "If the company reported on a quarterly basis the period of 30 days immediately preceding the announcement of the quarterly results or, if shorter, the period from the relevant financial period end up to and including the time of the announcement."

As far as Im aware there's 30 days pre-quarterly update which is due around mid / end of April. So could be between 17th and 26th (ish)

NEX will be in closed period again around the end of the week. My view is that it was a racing certainty that new CFO would have bought in if allowed and therefore I support LG view that there's a reason that he cannot buy after results. As we go into another 30 day close then unless news breaks we will have to wait another month.

If you haven't already watched it, I recommend anyone feeling a little nervous about the direction of the business in the medium term to watch the company presentation of 22 results. I thought James, CFO, was particularly impressive (mins 16 to 36) https://vimeo.com/803920953/c40ae84734

The price anyone is looking to achieve is only a matter of their personal timeline. Whats overlooked in the results is the very solid performance and quality management. The underlying performance of the business in its safety and punctuality, training, implementation of technology all driving (pardon the pun) future sales growth and not easy to replicate, as well as more obvious financial performance in ROCE to 7.7% ahead of forecast, the FCF of 81%! the very cautious/prudent risk management and application of future margins (eg not applying 15% cost reduction in Zero Emission assets operation etc, etc....). This is worth so much more that the current SP and on historic multiples should be c. £2.40 today, min. I believe based on the solid management and consistent forecasting and delivery on performance this is £5 with 3 years. So just depends how long you want to wait, but the underlying business it's as good a bet as anything gets at the minute.

Warren Buffet 2023 "One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to
buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often
trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In
truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in
retrospect."

You are correct, Fitch do state that. I’m also confused now!! My understanding is that cash flow is good and improving. They do state that there is a large increase in Capex, but this would all have to be in the second half of 2022 to go negative. Fitch are the experts so must have access to numbers that we don’t.

I’m not sure where the numbers come from that you quote from Fitch as half year was positive FCF of £64m and likely year end £150m-£200m FCF

Rogue, that was point of the post “…probably for no reason”.

As I have a reasonable holding here, I keep rereading the company reports to see if I’m missing something and the brokers and shorters have got this right.

The fear , if there is fear and not just opportunistic shorting, is being driven by 2 main scenarios. 1st is cost inflation and 2nd is the ability to service debt when taking in cost inflation and future cost of debt increases.

1. If you take the 2022 half year company presentation you will see that 60% of contracts are inflation protected and large proportion of the balance of contracts are elastic in their ability to increase prices. The largest risk has come from US schools (because the US provides a good chunk of EBITDA) as this has been hit hardest with driver shortages and wage increases this has been cited as being a primary concern. However the company states quite clearly and unequivocally that it has recovered an average of 7% uplift in costs which covers all the inflationary increases incurred with further increases being recovered (overall 7% = greater than a 10-12% increase of driver wages which represent 51% of US school bus revenue). Therefore currently it isn’t the problem it could have been or may appear to be at a casual glance.

2. Debt is also not currently a disaster of a problem with c.80% fixed and no major refinancing for 2 years. There is also a management plan to deleverage debt/assets and focus on asset light new projects. Net Debt is confirmed as coming back within 2.5-3 * EBITDA by year end 2022 proving expectations of MEETING GUIDANCE of £320m to £380 EBITDA. With increased occupancy and margins on many routes this may well prove conservative.

In summary I still firmly believe there doesn’t appear to be any justification for the current hammered share price other than very nervous markets, opportunist shorting and opportunity cost of missing out on other faster moving investments. Hope like many others here that I’m right, with march 2nd being the date we probably find out.

No, it’s a cap with balance made up by government. So should be increase in revenue/profit as more people enticed to travel by bus as it’s cheaper (for them).

Apologies for double posting, I was digging around for update on Dubai contract and hadn't seen this before. Fingers crossed.

Not sure if this has been posted before but found the following contract award in Saudi worth 57m Euro per year for 10 years beginning July 23. https://metatoursae.com/the-spanish-alsa-and-moventia-win-the-bus-contracts-from-saudi-arabia/

"Spanish companies Alsa Y Moventia have obtained the award of two of the three contracts intercity transport in Saudi Arabia which will begin operating in July 2023, sources familiar with the process have confirmed.

The Arab Kingdom has put out to tender intercity transport in three lots, which divide the territory into north, south and northwest. Alsa has been pre-awarded the contract for the south, with 27 lines, and Moventia, the one for the northwest, with 23 lines.

As reported the Economistthe award of contracts for the next ten years will mean an estimated turnover of ones 1,500 million euros, of which 570 correspond to Alsa; 520 million, to Moventia, and 420 million more to the third chosen, the group Hafil Lantao, a Sino-Saudi consortium.

Alsa will provide a fleet of 129 buses and a staff of 389 people to operate 27 intercity lines with around 1.5 million passengers a year."

81% of all debt is fixed (19%floating). Cash and revolving credit covers 2 year maturing debt and rest is 5-6 years. Increasing revenue and margins increasing and EBit / debt ration decreasing and below covenants ie a debt not the current issue with SP