Member Info for wealthtrasfer

Lara - its the adjustment to the future value of the assets and contracts of the company which is shown in Goodwill. It is partially offset by inflation which increases the future value as prices go up. It's a complicated calculation based on accepted accounting practices which includes government bond yields as a guide to cost of debt. Each country the company operates in has a different value. There is no impairment to be had in the UK. The likely hood of impairment in the US is receding with inflation and bond yields and there is some headroom left for a small adjustment but further impairment may be likely in Alsa as Spanish yields and risks are higher and theres no headroom.

Mids

Given revenue growth in H1 plus inflation, revenue should be over £3b. Improving margins as well (with possible exception of west kids bus but that’s a small slice of the revenue).

DB - it reads as though this is part of a wider restructure:

"National Express is restructuring and refocusing its business, and from October this year will no longer offer holidays or day trips under any of our brands."

Josey, I agree with your last sentence. Perhaps the debt is the poison pill that will give the company the time thats needed? Although we are not going to influence decisions its interesting to hear the alternative thoughts.

DB - Im confident on 1. believe 2. will be nearer 2p than 5p. 3. would be a strong signal and also great value if they can find the cash. I also don't 'want' to sell assets but fear to avoid getting taken out too cheaply by someone who will break it up and reap the rewards, they should do it, returning cash to shareholders and / or regroup around the profitable and flexible parts of the business.

They have to do something dramatic and news worthy to get this back where it should be. Otherwise we will be dragging along for a long time. I hear the arguments for not selling off the family silver but we also dont want to get taken out at a crazy low price either. We are where we are and the board must do something to reverse this. They need to find some cash and start a buy back and for a more dramatic effect they need to sell off parts of the business to reduce debt. They cannot afford to wait for the next 2-3 years to grow revenue and slowly reduce debt as something will play out before then and become out of their control (and ours).

Not sure if its a coincidence but we had a better couple of days when the US market was closed?

For share price a Buy Back is what Id hope for earlier this year and makes even more sense than then. However there are other institutional investors with a longer time frame of holding that will prefer the dividend and they are arguably more important than PI's as if they decided to sell due to not getting a dividend that may create more pressure. The only option the board have (other than asset sale), to keep everyone holding tight, is balance, a little debt reduction (whilst reduced debt as a % of EBIT through growth), modest divi and hopefully a modest buy back too. Keep chipping away whilst interest rates and inflation fall and wait for the turning point.

Genghis, couldn’t agree more Re: NxWM. We should focus more on more flexible commercial opportunities in the UK with higher margins. Transit, shuttle and coach.

Ps maybe the people of Birmingham should write to Unite to thank them for causing bus fares to increase for everyone who no doubt didn’t demand such an excessive pay rise for themselves !

It’s interesting that anyone on the customer side quotes £200m operating profit and Doom-mongers quote huge losses and inability to pay debts. The same people that focus on UK bus as if it’s all that matters!

The bottom line is that nothing has changed. Theres no point looking thinking what are we missing. We aren't missing anything. The company and its prospects are unchanged. However the market has a different view and isnt interested in buying in as it sees it as too indebted (one can only assume that they are concerned for refinancing at higher rates in the future when current arrangements end, years down the road - and yes most of it is fixed and in currencies that the debt is denominated in etc....). But the market doesn't like the debt headline numbers. Period. If the board doesn't react and accept this then someone will take advantage and acquire enough stock to force a change and there wont be the luxury of time to prove that the company can and will manage the debt. The analogy that stands out to me is that you have a property with a large garden that you can buy into for less than the market value. Cash is short so people are nervous but the developers are circling thinking this is a no brainer and we can take the property, sell it again for what we paid for the whole and keep the garden land for free or sell it for a big pay day. You don't want to sell the garden because we like looking at it, so refuse and just keep the house on the market hoping the value will improve and everything will be okay. Its just a matter of time as someone will buy it if nothing is done to protect its value.

Simples: they sold some assets and paid down debt. That is what the market is currently demanding. Ignore at our cost.

Ps by ‘pay’ I mean service debt

I think the board is losing the battle between ability to pay and perception of ability to pay. This share is suffering from the perception of ability to pay, grow and sustain profits. Whether that plays out in reality or not is to be seen but I think that either the board needs to accept that this is the current reality and do something about it in the short term or someone else will. The reason our bird needs to do it is I would prefer to benefit than hand the gains to someone else who will do it if this continues much longer. Unfortunately they are being forced into doing something that no one particularly wants and if they don’t address it then we will ultimately be the losers.

New site is live

In an effort to be as equally ridiculous as flip flop and his ( I say his as I doubt any woman would be quite that stupid) alter ego Manz, I predict £6.00 to £6.80.

Haha FlipFlop. I see that the down dip has brought you back. Having sold too early last time and going very quiet you must have spent your pocket money and come back for more. For you to speak of ramblings of other people from the worst culprit here is so of the moment. Boris remind you of anyone?

Nazcad - if they do repeat the trading update and reinstatement of guidance they started last year it would be due soon, but I cant find previous so it may have been exceptional.