Member Info for W13Ken

I have taken a big hit on Bellway but stuck with them and have even topped up a reasonable tranche at £20 today. Not sure that I'm calling this near the bottom but I hope we'll not be sub £19 again. For other shares, I've sold Gym Group (germ paranoia may mean that gym membership never fully recovers) and Hotel Chocolat (good business but retail hit is being hard at the moment). I am getting heavily back into Games shares again: Team17 (TM17) is releasing 10 games this year starting from April and Frontier Developments (FDEV) look a good bet on sandbox games like Planet Zoo and Elite Dangerous while people stay at home more.

I guess I have learnt from the "Shares take the stair up abut the lift down" maxim and think I will look to sell if bad news hits shares before they lose 20% or all profit. Once they lose much more than then you feel that you should stick with them.

Strictly, yes I'm losing money in West Ealing :-)

Nige, good luck to you. Are you buying again now?

James, difficult to judge on the dividend but one important factor is that dividend cover has always been pretty decent in the past. One minor negative was that Bellway weren't especially cash-rich even before this crash. These are risky times so do your own research and don't just rely on folks in an echo-chamber of a shares forum.

What a difference a few weeks and a global virus scare can make: Bellway down 33% and maybe more to come!

Only my Gaming shares held up reasonably well - presumably as people will be spending more time as home - but I've even sold Team17 shares for now as the rulebooks look to have been rewritten on what is considered fair value for stocks.

Strictly, it's not looking so good for that annual 20% rise at the moment.

Thoughts folks? Did anyone apply a stop-loss as we're all advised to do?

Strictly,

As I highlighted in my first post, I've found your housebuilder commentary very insightful over the years and I can understand why you are sticking to this sector. I've dabbled in other housebuilder shares but not all worked out well for me but Bellway is well run and has never let me down and the numbers stack up well. Sure, it seemed to spend an age bouncing between £30 and £36 but it's broken that cycle now and I will be happy to keep it as my biggest shareholding for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile I will apply the Zulu Principle and also learn more about UK gaming shares - it helps that my son is doing a degree in Games Computing right now - and hopefully we'll all make wise investment choices for the long term.

Strictly and co,

I can't say I have fully grasped PBV yet but I'll look into it a bit further to try and understand its importance. Regarding the unlikely scenario that BWY would rise 25% in a short period of time, as it's my largest shareholding I wouldn't have a problem with cutting back on it. I'm not quite as strict on my bricks as you are and have been diversifying my portfolio in recent months.

I found it interesting to read about Steph's ideas on alternative shares, particularly Draper Esprit (GROW), on this board so will briefly share info on a few of my other shares:
Gym Group (GYM) - Fast growing low cost model with 800,000 members, only gym on the FTSE market.
Hotel Chocolat (HOTC) - Premium choc maker with growing interest in expanding to become an international brand.
And most interestingly of all, Team17 (TM17), a Wakefield-based games developer and publisher. It's a world away from housebuilding but I think it's set to be huge in the coming years as of course is the games industry - now bigger than the film and music industries combined. They make their own games like many others but cleverly they are also the go-to company for indie games developers around the world, partnering with and even professionally completing indie games that have brilliant ideas but would not be ready to market. The CEO, Debbie Bestwick, is extremely impressive and has 30 years in the business and they have an exciting year ahead with at least 10 games being launched this year with demo versions being launched at the Pax East expo in Boston next week. They're relatively new to the stock market but the EPS went up 387% last year and the future looks very bright indeed.

Sorry if the above is too off-topic and if it looks like a ramp. It's not meant to be, but I've appreciated advice from others on here and TM17 is one that is definitely worth a look for those of you not tied to bricks. DYOR of course.

Thanks cyberduck. BWY is my biggest hold so a great day after HSBC upgraded their target price to 5,470p from 4,300p, much more in line with the SWS valuation. Should be a good year...

Interesting cyberduck, where are you getting your daily ranking positions from? Also, how do you add URLs in LSE chats? A link was removed in my previous message.

Happy to report that the Simply Wall Street website, which does some pretty comprehensive analysis using a Discounted Cash Flow model, has Bellway at a 'fair value' of £57+ so they believe it's undervalued by 26%.

Yep, it was a 60% undervalued (from fair value) rather than a premium. Doing us no harm today is this morning's broker forecast of 727p from Jefferies International.

It is very unusual to be able to invest in growing private start-ups so to access them through a Venture capitalist (VC) on the stock market is exciting. The Draper Esprit website shows that they are approached by over 2,500 businesses a year but invest in less than 1% of them so they get to choose the best of the best. They also seem to have a flexible approach to where they invest and at what stage they buy in or exit.
Not sure if any of you use the Simply Wall Street website (recommended) but they have very interesting analysis of companies value and using their DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model they put the fair value of GROW shares at £14.24, a 60% premium on the current share price.
With any VC there has to be a higher than average risk but the team at Draper seems to have the right strategy to deliver excellent results in the coming years.

Hello BWY regulars, I'm a long time viewer, first-time poster but I have been investing in BWY for quite a few years. I've also dabbled in RDW, TEF & CRST over the years although Bellway are my only housebuilder share at the moment.

Re the subject matter above, I see that the http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php page has recently been updated and BWY are excitingly ranked #91 with Samantha picking BWY for promotion to the FTSE 100 where we would hope and expect that multiple fundholders would choose to buy in. Exciting times if the shareprice holds up or goes higher for the quarterly review D-Day on 4th March.

Finally for now, thanks to all of you for sharing your knowledge, especially strictlybricks who has been a font of wisdom for many years and Steph who highlighted Draper Esprit (GROW), which I have started to buy.

Cheers,
Ken