Member Info for W13Ken

I may well do the same if it dips below 800.

Could it be that Delveroo's greediness on their IPO and the 26% drop on the first day will have a knock-on effect on other IPOs and private company valuations?

Full year trading update and notice of results was on 28th May last year.

Hi Steph, slight overlap on our stories but I can't see past The Times paywall. I am similarly excited by the potential uplift when the world wakes up to the quality of GROW investments (even if I think Cazoo is overvalued). Any thoughts on my speculative sums below or any idea on the Series D investment by Draper? Do we have to wait till the Trading update of even FY results to see it (unless Cazoo fliats and GROW cash out before then)?

Rumours are swirling of Cazoo floating for approx $7bn/£5bn by reverse listing into a US SPAC called Ajax I. News rumoured to be released this week.

Draper's Series C investment in Cazoo as of 2020 H1 (Sept 20) was £10m and worth £17.5m when Cazoo was speculated to be worth £2bn. In Oct 2020 Draper participated in a Series D fundraising for Cazoo worth £240m although I can't see how much was invested then. However, it's safe to assume that Draper's Series C investment alone would be worth more than £40m and that the Series D investment would raise this only further.

https://news.sky.com/story/online-used-car-unicorns-cinch-and-cazoo-in-10bn-race-to-reshape-industry-12258084

Team17 has today released Overcooked! All You Can Eat on Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4, Steam, and Xbox One. Debuting in 2020 on Xbox Series X|S and PlayStation 5.

Also significantly it's the first time in the series that cross-platform multiplayer has also been introduced, allowing chefs to play all levels online with other players, regardless of platform.

This game will continue to sell well for years!

https://fullsync.co.uk/overcooked-all-you-can-eat-serves-up/

Steph, I hadn't appreciated thaf Yearend was 31st March so this sale is perfect timing.

Retaining 7.9% looks astute as there's been a double-digit jump today. Maybe they'll sell again before the 31st :)

Wow, huge payday fror Draper! I have topped up again this morning. My #1 holding.

"According to company filings, Draper Esprit has 16.9% of the shares in the company, or around £169m worth"

https://sifted.eu/articles/trustpilot-ipo-vcs/

Hell, I think they have proved they're smart with many other buys and I don't know the full background to the Stripe sale and whether it was out of their hands.

It is certainly unfortunate though but they have holdings in approx 70 companies now so there are plenty more spins of the wheel to come.

FocalPoint Positioning, the deeptech company revolutionising the accuracy of GPS and other Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), has announced an approx. €7 million Series B funding from Draper Esprit.

Aha - what might have been! You may have heard that Irish company Stripe became Silicon Valley’s most valuable private company, after investors struck a deal valuing the online payments processor at $95 billion. Draper was an early investor but only invested in £0.4m and cashed in for £1.7m in the last financial year.

Hopefully this extraordinary valuation of Stripe may lead on to a reassessment and positive rerating of Draper's other holdings.

I had a search for Draper's investment in Decibel and found this in the 2020 Annual report:

"£10.1 million in Decibel, a London-
based software company focused
on digital experience analytics to
improve user interface on company
websites, leading its US$17.0 million
Series B round"

Based on my finger in the air assessment on funding rounds and other cash/NAV multiples, there's a good chance that £10.1m investment was worth £25-30m when sold, which would be a great result in less than 2 years.

A dozen stories on Gaming websites have been published in the 90 minutes since this news was released. This is big news for FDEV as ED has sold 5 million+ copies and should hopefully have a positive effect on the recently battered share price.

Highly anticipated Elite Dangerous: Odyssey expansion will have Alpha later this month on March 29, 2021, the development team Frontier confirmed. To celebrate the reveal of the Alpha start date, the team have shared a new gameplay video showing an Odyssey mission playthrough, which features gameplay captured from a raid.

https://wccftech.com/elite-dangerous-odyssey-pc-alpha-launch-date-gameplay-footage/

I think the figures quoted are simply Current value/What was paid hence 80.9/29.7 = 2.7 etc, showing the multiple since their investment.

I use Simply Wall Street regularly to screen shares and one thing that strikes me as excellent about Draper is how closely forecast earnings mirror forecast revenue and what an effective business model it is when it's done well.

That revenue/earnings forecast is hard to predict for GROW as realisations do not follow a strict timetable but looking ahead anyway to analysts' forecasts for 2024, revenue is £253m and earnings £231m or, in effect, 91% of revenue is retained as earnings and about the same most years up to then. It's almost unbelievable but when you think about it we're paying for experts to thoroughly research and work with new companies and all the overheads that go with that, some financing but not too much else. There is risk of course but there is also a proven record of success in selecting future successful companies and 6 new recruits in January that bring experience in the energy sector, business law, AI cybersecurity and VC.

https://draperesprit.com/news/welcome-to-the-team

Hi Steph,

In the website link below rather than the PDF download you need to go to virtually the bottom to find a 'Summary of key portfolio companies'. It lists what I expect are the 15 largest holdings and here are the top 5 with some very impressive cash/NAV ratios.

1. Trustpilot (Series E) – online global review site
H121: £29.7m invested, £80.9m peer-based valuation, 2.7x cash/NAV.

2. Graphcore (Series E) – fabless semiconductor company
H121: £13.7m invested, £80.5m valuation based on last investment round, 5.9x cash/NAV.

3. UiPath (Series E) – robotic process automation
H121: £10.3m invested, £36.7m valuation based on last investment round, 3.5x cash/NAV.

4. RavenPack (Series B) – big data analytics
H121: £7.5m invested, £31.9m valuation based on last investment round, 4.3x cash/NAV.

5. M-Files (Series C) – intelligent information management
H121: £5.0m invested, £27.0m valuation based on peers, 5.3x cash/NAV.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/europes-leading-pureplay-listed-vc/28754/

Sage, Trustpilot is just about Draper's biggest holding and one of its longest held. The recent Edison report showed its values for GROW at H1 21: £29.7m invested, £80.9m peer-based valuation, 2.7x cash/NAV.

I'm a long-term holder but also bought some shares in my trading account at 694 as it was just stupidly cheap. Note that Team17 Group PLC announced that they will report 2020 results on Mar 16, 2021.

Steph, agreed, it is clearly written by an AI algorithm although it disguises it a little better than some other sites. There should be additional improved broker forecasts on the way.

SWS's valuation of £16.14 is encouraging though. I read that they use the Excess Returns Model, "where the key assumption is that equity value is how much the firm can earn, over and above its cost of equity, given the level of equity it has in the company at the moment."

They are bolder than some sites by providing a valuation but Draper is being valued in the same way as banks and financial institutions, which have all sorts of additional costs and complications. What can confuse automated future earnings forecast algorithms though is the freestyle nature of Draper's asset holding policy. They don't dispose of assets before a financial deadline but instead have a flexible approach to asset realisation and so earnings can seem lumpy.

I'm very happy with GROW, now my biggest holding and one that I will keep for years.

New SWS article with an eye-catching headline based on the latest broker forecasts. Their reports are syndicated and distributed widely by online finance media.

"Growth Investors: Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their Draper Esprit plc (LON:GROW) Revenue Forecasts By 45%.

Following the upgrade, the most recent consensus for Draper Esprit from its two analysts is for revenues of UK£171m in 2021 which, if met, would be a major 232% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of UK£118m in 2021."

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/diversified-financials/aim-grow/draper-esprit-shares/news/growth-investors-industry-analysts-just-upgraded-their-drape

Oops! Didn't see your msg Steph. Beat me to it as usual :)

Looks like the Investor Day went well then!

BERENBERG RAISES DRAPER ESPRIT PRICE TARGET TO 920 (750) PENCE - 'BUY'