Member Info for Voiceofreason1

So opec+ loking to add 200k barrels a day from next month - but russia expected to drop more than this (and evey increase so far has been under hit)

US SPR drops to lowest level since 1987

Oil Inventories up till now, even with massive SPR intervention of 1m barrels a day, still dropping

From point of view of Enquest most of our ratings from brokers are on oil WAY below current levels

I think we should all just remain patient and see where ENQ gets in real world of paying off debt and banking EBITA and FCF (even if more highly taxed!)

Honestly it wont be in there anyway yet - only happened yesterday - i mean from a market perspective its pretty dull - 37m shs while seeming big is pretty small in index space

Msci traders dont lose money - they simply buy on close and thats their benchmark (valuation of small cap fund is based off close) - the. They offer that index out to clients - rhey might lose but msci traders just follow a proforma pattern - ie buy on close and sell on close

Hi Rom, so MSCI small cap is not the biggest index but still has tracking funds - you basically get rhe weight of ENQ in this and have best guess at amount of money tracking it - and hey presto you get the net buy for rebal trade (closing price based) - stats i saw were a 38m buy due to this addition but as i said in earlier post you get much more around it normally

As to who buys it - its anyone who tracks msci small cap - suprised broker doenst have more information on this - it isnt a secret and will show up soon on the holdings page on bloomberg

Tommo - nope - was our official inclusion into msci small cap index - means trackers have to buy us and the specific tracking price was the close - hence huge volume at that point

Suply and demand Pelle - i mean you do get some people playing rebals by buying or selling in advance knowing there will be volume to unwind in the auction but normally (as in this case) an addition (ie a buy name on close) closes up - which it did

Guys and girls it was month end and our official entry into msci small cap that was flagged a while ago - net add was circa 38m shs but always brings more action around it

Always happens on quarterly rebal days

How that affects tomorrow? Dont know - but its.nothing nefarious etc etc

Jef - while i agree its the poorest government in living memory the sad fact is you could say same with most counties right now (granted we seem on leading edge of worst with Bojo basically just trying to save his skin and willing to do anything to do it)

Where do you go?

And to put into perspective its 7-9% (dont disagree with back of fag packet legislation but end effect is bearable)

Saying all the below we have to understand that ENQ still are inline to have stonking figs this year - yes they lose slightly less than windfall 25% (as they will have some write offs for drilling etc - and is only half year as still not passed into law - so end of year effect circa 7-9%)

It’s not optimal but its hardly earth shattering and given the climate of heating etc it could have been worse

Sadly this will definitely pass into law - both tories and labour backing it in the main as plays out well in press as most people dont understand that even Shell and BP dont control oil prices - let alone ENQ and HBR

Issue with Tory windfall is they dawdled and missed BP and SHell figs so then had to play to ‘blue wall’ and go even heavier to steal Labour clothes - Labours plan was 10% - Tories topped it with 25% then panic’d about renewables write off and tax deductions and banned them - that is where we might see a move for smaller E&p’s hopefully

Martinen - remeber their target price was based on a much lower oil price - and $14m negative from windfall while not great - isnt really ‘really’ bad

KO re RNS statement - i just dont believe its necessary - if people want to panic thats fine - its certainly no reason to RNS it - bonds are steady - and people over reacting to windfall tax is actually useful to ENQ as they will still be feverishly lobbying for carve out

But it doesnt actually genuinely affect them in a business sense so no real driver for RNS - its down to shareholders to educate themselves - the issue with retail investors (including myself sometimes) is that we feel we need extra cuddles from the company but thats not their job

We should be thinking about the ENQ price in 6 months not today/tomorrow etc - as i said earlier this when when the brave buy (or annoyed sell)

Market isnt always rational otherwise people like buffet wouldnt be ludicrously rich - sell offs are in the main always overshoots - clearly windfall tax isnt great for ENQ but is it this bad? Please refute my figures if you think wrong but i think they are boringly factual

I dont disagree market is selling off much harder than figs would suggest are correct but thats when the brave buy i suppose

And as to full effect of this - lets face it - its massively political - cost of living crisis, partygate - tories had to u turn but the reality is the headlines normally overplay any effect as boring accountants then get to work to grey the black/white lines

Time will tell my friends

And thank you 34 for correctly pointing out only 25% tax for ENQ due to write offs on balance sheet hence my statement of 3 weeks to cover the sub $20m effect of the windfall in the WHOLE year

Again this whole rhetoric on o&g being seismically effected - lets look at ENQ - analysts saying impact of windfall tax this year of between $10-20m taking into account what we do in last 7 months, how much we can expense against it etc etc etc

Oil is up $5 this week - for ENQ at 50k barrels a day thats $7m+ a month extra (clean) - so 2-3 months and the windfall tax is covered by oil increase THIS week

Perespective

Right so prople need to calm down - i know ENQ is a retail darling stock but while this windfall tax is worse than originally expected (not being able to nullify with write offs) its still pretty low ball with regards ENQ - 25% on (super) profits is still 75% of super profit retained

Then add in the operational expenses write off of 80% and fact its half year effect to now (everything up to now no tax) its not like an asteroid is hurtling towards earth people

Idea of this generating a long lasting rather than knee jerk sell reponse is simply illogical - ENQ is making great progress on debt, trades at PE of less than 2, and is realistically not affected much by this tax

Is it good news - NO - but is it really bad news - equally NO

Not sure about the whole Avanza subplot - biggest sellers since last reporting date have been bseisu, baillie gifford, dimensional and then the private investors of hargreaves and interactive inv

Avanza have been net buyers of 2.5m shs, ubp have bought 26m!!! (In fairness halifax private big buyer as well)

Whatever we say the ‘clever’ money is simply waiting on sidelines to see if ENQ can hit their targets for another month and if any negative updates are forthcoming ( march update)

Bank analysts are uprating their FCF expectations but not their price targets based on this negative (and as much as it hurts logical) thought process

If ENQ doesnt throw a spanner in works and even starts talking about paying off PIK early then we get a Hurricane like bounce

Half of production is hedged at 78 so be interesting to see if ENQ hedged anymore - but all in all i am struggling to stop myself buying more but already super axed to this company