Member Info for Voiceofreason1

Schlemiel, it just is supposed to show they are not valued by market because the returns are not obvious due to hard to gauge development time

Pap - on your point of it still being expensive to invest and get oil at bressay i 100% agree - i also think they will have another partner in mind but we’ll see

As per the cannacord analyst today - this is a ‘good news’ article simply because its valuing an asset and cashing out a percentage that the market basically didnt value - so we got paid circa 12% of our market cap for something that wasnt really rated as part of our market cap

If we can actually take this to next level then the share price change would be an order above what happened today

Romaron is correct - enquest own 100% - they originally bought 40% in 2020 but in late 2022 both equinor and harbour ceded their shares to enquest

Hope this helps

Hi Rom,

I’ll try and not take offence to the junior line when i am sitting here in office trading!!!! Lol i’ve had worse abuse to be fair

For record my trading floor is nearly full - next week will be dead but given volatility you’d be amazed at head count and seniority on floors today in London banks

Consolidated tapes (including dark venues) now at over 14m traded today which may prove my point

Romaron - watching it live on bloomberg screen - 6.5m traded already!!!!

Stup,

Re tax at 75% - jesus i bet they’d have a go if they could - but obvs we have tax losses so our max tax is 35% anyway and then you deduct cost of asset which will prob be in the 25-45m area - plus i dont think epl applies to capital disposals (although happy to be corrected)

So this seems like clean money

Just a thought - 15% sale amounting to 46m (circa 58m dollars) - do we think this matches us down to the magic 0.5 debt to ebita? Because surely this is in the AB thought process ie sell enough to get to the magic figure

They only pay tax (even if based here) on the uk products in fairness. But in fairness might still be better to move to somewhere that attributes higher p/e’s to oil companies (even if not for tax)

Renn, i reckon you might be onto something there - wouldnt surprise me if ab was making calls….

Up 14% now…..

Punchy

Steve and Kraken, i think personally the truth is somewhere in between the glass half empty steve and the glass half full Kraken

Personally i do think a 60 floor is more likely to be the fully loaded cost per barrel (as opposed to steves 65 assertion) rather than randomly saying that they just chose it as the low cost option but hey ho i am happy to see if management say different

The proof in the pudding - if fully loaded cost per barrel is 65 and we produce circa 44k barrells (as per latest guidance) thats 80m fcf in H1 (we did more production in h1) and who knows in H2

Now some costs come at different times (lease etc) but lets say end price of oil is similar to h1 then if steve is right we get fcf of around 160m for full year (if oil averages 76)

Let the numbers decide!!!

Reading up on the EU levy plan - it was basically guidance (33% on ‘excess’ profits not all profits) really trying to co-ordinate approach (some countries followed it and some didnt) as EU obviously dont collect direct taxes in the EU as thats the individual govs choice/role

Be interesting to see which govs that enacted it now act - as an optimist i believe if oil stays down around 75 or below we’ll see change in epl here in uk as well

So i spoke to my oil guy dumbly - and clearly thats not 100% but its pretty clear its 71.40 for oil AND then seperately the therm price for gas - but if oil falls below 71.40 (and higher once the price inflatoon comes in) then the oil portion of the epl drops out (enq will pay epl on gas but not oil as an example)

I do agree with the 2 quarters tho but given you cant expect to 75% tax a sector that is getting crushed - it will provide the aircover for tories to suspend the epl - leaving it as depthcharge for labour to be see as anti business

Dont get me wrong the last point is only personal opinion but if oil does stay down (for record i dont think it will) epl will stop in 2024

But to be clear here both dont have to be below for one source of revenue to drop out of epl - just think of the extreme case where oil drops to $10 and gov charges 75% tax

Hey Kraken - we agree about AB not selling for 20p - FCF per share in bloomberg is 39p - now i get the high debt argument but i would also point out a net debt to ebita of 0.7 is actually pretty good (i know oil isnt cool but that debt burden is not big in any accounting parlance)

Cash gen vs cash required is at 7.7 - which is on the awesome side

And as i have bored everyone - we are funded to 2027 so there’s zero funding pressure

Now in the negative column - oil prices are all over the place although they do seem quite panic/herd driven - and while all we read about now is ‘oil glut’ we are at very very very low inventories so that could turn any time (oil prices fall much further we either avoid epl of 35% or tories use it as an excuse to drop it). The swedish selling is short term in nature and given AB doesnt need to sell shares or fund the business i would actually guess he pays little or no attention to the current price

Just my humble opinion

Jeff - i stand corrected - drink another beer - get online and buy more ENQ

I really dont get the morbid and semi paranoid attitude of Jeffrey - we had an official update (which i think everyone was happy with - even Stevo!!) LAST week. So expecting a board announcement is just idiotic

AB has literally bucket loads of stock so you cant doubt his ‘skin in the game’ and expecting more is just illogical (i note that there was another director buy announced last night)

Now given the oil price being down but still well within comfort range with opex being sub $20 a barrel (capex and other expenses take that into - tops - the 50’s (i just dont buy the whole ‘we need oil above 80 to make money’ when we made 140m at $75 H1). Proof or otherwise will be available with year end data either way

Then we get to funding - we are funded to 2027 - thats a matter of record - so ultimately share price is irrelevant in the short/medium term to the functioning of the business itself

So given all the above - updates being super recent, actual content being good, directors being invested, outlook for fcf good, and funding being fine its just a matter of time before ENQ sp reflects fundamentals (imo)

Maybe i am an optimist but i think my logic is good - i dont mind Stevo and his questioning fo figs and slightly glass half empty base view as thats always good to have - but i wouldnt let Jeffrey stand too close to any cliff edges given his morbid baseline :)

The glib reaponse is ‘buy more’ - i will be doing so today

100% agreed

Hi Auson, EV is basically based on debt as a valuation metric so validates the point on harbour being valued above us as in fairness debt is important and they are ahead of us - but thats the only metric really

Kraken, i just dont know about the whole auto/algo trade angle - algos are just a methodology to trade the way you want to - they are not some kind of super intelligence - you could put a limit order on there to sell above a certain level but you’d still have to have stock - i think the reality is more mundane - we suffer from a negative impression from market - epl and the whole delisting from sweden reinforce that but the intrinsic value of enquest will eventually show (imo)

Hey Kraken,

I am actually not as keen on the tie up -

1. i am not sure in logic of bigger is better in UK sense (Gov will just have even bigger axe to grind with evil ‘big oil’ which is hard at moment to level at ENQ

I dont know AB at all but imho i cant see him taking the write down (he clearly doesnt lack patience)

2. Secondly (and i own HBR as well) ENQ is much more of an upside bet than HBR - its basically valued at half ( or worse) the valuation of HBR based mostly on debt which we all aknowledge is heading down quickly

3. The main beneficiary of a merger is HBR unless they value us at 4x which just aint happening (and selfishly i own more enq than hbr so i am not a fan)