Member Info for Voiceofreason1

Right so confirmed today as yesterday - net invetory draw is 5.8m barrels (due to spr release of 6.9m)

So i find it interesting that SPR release was down on last few weeks to 6.9m as opposed to standard 8ish - and this pretty much equates to the lower build than expected

Clearly Biden and team thought market was going to allow them to (literally) step off gas pedal

Also SPR figs for releases in NOV of 10m so WAY down on current levels should be super interesting

I will add to position today even though i missed the lows yesterday as it seems quite clear that even in face of horrific headwinds the demand side is clearly much stronger than a lot of people believe

Agree with both Jan (on continued selling into mid terms) but also Frac with the angle the market sees it as a sticking plaster on an arterial bleed

Theres a logical reason that most of the banks see oil up into year end - 3.5m a week instead of 7m and the decreased level for spr (and knowledge he definitely stops day after mid terms) means market might see it as bull signal instead of sell signal on oil

Oil is all about the narrative imo - will turn quickly

On post Oct SPR releases we are talking 8 weeks from here - at 7m a week thats another 50m plus barrels

That takes the SPR below 400m - now i agree on buying back not being anytime soon but fact is its a strategic reserve which is being used as an election tool

I think capability to keep releasing is then curtailed due to low levels (its supposed to be an insurance policy against outages) and also market not simply ignoring the release amounts (hence you’ve seen headlines like ‘inventory build of 1.4m barrels’ when spr has released 7m barrels)

Clearly mid terms are in Nov but SPR is all about narative - and when it gets too low that narative can turn negative quickly (IMO)

We’re now down 3.17 % over last 5 days - capricorn is 4%, hurricane is 4% and serica is 8.9% - ytd we’re up 54 which is better than harbour, capricorn and serica

Market is bearish inclined - our update was already well flagged to be honest as we pre announced a lot of positives and in fairness on consensus we missed profit figs

Hold firm - oil is getting hit

It’ll turn - oil is clearly getting oversold by us spr releases and general push from US gov trying to keep it down for mid terms

I understand kraken - patience though - we’ll just be ploughing through the hedges right now - which we had to use anyway - we have enough of those to basically last till market turns more positive on oil (or simply wait till spr stops pushing 5m barrels a week)

Market is not efficient - prople see oil and lose their minds - knowing we are just using hedges doesnt seem to have hit market imo

I know this isnt fitting into the rhetoric just now as everyones gone depressingly negative - but i am buying more and only too happy to have stock come down into my zone

We’re not in this for 1 week for 3-5p - we know the figures - H1 was hugely positive - and although oil is getting humped right now the SPR is running out of oil and we keep making profits (albeit a little lower than hoped)

A negative day is a buying day!

IEA report details coming out now on bloomberg - 300k oil b/d increase in demand due to oil from gas move in Europe until end of 2023

Romaron - so i’d love to blame politicians - but its a sticking plaster on an arterial bleed - yet entire world press as well as most of business community seem to have forgotten that reserves run out

Then not only do you not have more to sell but you have to replenish them eventually

Elephant in the room (but being very very quiet about it) SPR release last week was 5.3m barrels - even before this weeks 5.3 the SPR is at 37 year lows

Its openly known US cant renew present SPR release schedule which runs to sep as its already at critical levels

At that point even big builds become draws and draws become HUGE

People seem to forget this IMO

To remind everyone SPR is at 37 year lows

Please bear in mind we have 3.4m barrels hedged at 79 tops - so fluctuations like this are fine as long as they dont continue as we just use the hedge which we would have to do even if oil was at 200

I dont think market has figure this out yet

So we are getting hit for something that is not hurting us - again this is a buy opportunity for the strong!!!

Londoner - so very simplistically we’ve been paying the rbl back much quicker than the high yield - clearly that seems illogical UNLESS paying off the rbl give enq another advantage - might that mean more freedom on hedging? - as it looks like RBL will be paid H2

I am happy to be corrected if someone knows better clearly because otherwise we should be smashing high yield debt that they can buy in market for sub par

Right - we’re all retail investors but we dont need to fall into trap of being too emotional - i have said this before, if you are a confident ENQ investor then analysts not ‘getting’ your stock is awesome news - analysts are not seen as all seeing by professional investors (like newspapers being right in their views - they never remember being wrong)

As to specific analysts - they suffer a lot from fear, mistaken beliefs, pride and basically the same as everyone else

As to KO’s tree hugging question - i mean its possible but i would say unlikely for an oils analyst ;)

Stay strong - and see you in the pub when it hits a pound ;)

Right calculated this out - basf use 1.38bn m3 of gas to make the power they need for their plants (they need 20m tons of steam)

The oil equiv is 8.3m barrels of oil - anually in fairness but thats a lot of oil - and its just one firm

Hi Kraken,

There’s a similar piece out on bloomberg professional but goes into more detail (i think) - basically Habeck the vice chancellor has permissioned coal reactor reactivation as well as oil

As BASF who are huge energy consumers are refitting their sites to switch to oil up in the rhein

No idea about the absolute amount tho

Has to be Enquest bonus vesting - i mean otherwise its nuts (i’d love it to be true)

NM2 - if that doesnt include golden eagle i am going straight to the pub and getting on the champers - as that would be a ludicrous beat

Kraken - agree completely - and even if it does go lower for a while the upside breakoat potential still dwarfs short term idiocy on trying to pick lows

For record i would love deviation from plan from RS but my confidence in present government is simply zero