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asian demand can be split into two distinct categories with quite different underlying trends:

japan, korea, taiwan

the large traditional japan, korean & taiwan (jkt) markets are set to experience relative stable demand this decade, before a structural decline take shape into the 2030s, driven by a shift towards nuclear & renewable electricity generation & broader decarbonisation in the case of japan & korea.

developing economies

the future of asian lng demand growth depends much more on emerging economies.

greg molnar at the iea flagged an interesting stat last week that puts potential asian lng demand growth in context: the

entire increase in global lng supply by 2030 accounts for less than 10% of asia’s current coal consumption. in other words, power sector fuel switching alone can drive very strong demand growth. industrial demand growth and electrification are also key drivers.

china is the most important demand source given the scale of its energy requirements, followed by india (reinforced by

growth from ****stan & bangladesh). there are also other important sources of demand growth across southeast asia,

including singapore, thailand, vietnam, and the philippines.

additional supply volumes are likely to decline materially into the 2030s as the market absorbs new gas. but in the

meantime, the fate of the lng market strongly depends on the performance of asian lng demand.

FID of Timor Leste, Metinaro Petroleum Gas/LNG terminal P.I.T also overdue , FID by end 2023 or IN Q1 2024 (Both gone) and a perfect fit for our 1-2 well initial FPSO plan for Chuditch. 🤔

Offshore and onshore studies completed by two Indonesian companies last year, data handed over to Timor Gap NOC and partners to commence FEED , with FID now overdue, recent China visit , for BRI Infrastructure funding, could be the key to unlock , this near term project (all by 2025/26)🤑

Our global gas model is projecting a 52% increase in global LNG supply by 2030. Substantial growth across the second half of this decade (2026-30) is being driven by post energy crisis FID of new liquefaction projects.

https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-demand-vs-next-wave-supply/#:~:text=The%20future%20of%20Asian%20LNG,of%20Asia's%20current%20coal%20consumption.

FT - Europe need for LNG

https://www.ft.com/content/1ba32ff0-14c9-4b2f-a9f8-0083b7798d4f

FT - Woodside today, defends its climate plans

https://www.ft.com/content/85312266-5238-4f67-ba3c-ab545784d7fc

FT Today, gas and oil not going to go away soon

JPMorgan warns of need for ‘reality check’ on phasing out fossil fuels

https://www.ft.com/content/352b38a7-f298-4b54-adc2-f4cc1b17444b

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/asian-gas-prices-surge-near-highest-this-year-amid-conflict-risk

The North Asian spot rate topped $11 per million British thermal units on Tuesday and has climbed around 40% since the end of February, according to traders. That followed a similar gain in Europe, which competes with Asia for LNG. 👍

Https://www.icis.com/explore/commodities/energy/lng/?cmpid=PSC%7cICIS%7cCHLEG-2023-09-GLOBAL-GG_core_DaaS%7cenergy&sfid=7014G000001oHVUQA2&keyword=lng%20market&matchtype=p&gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI9fP8lZnOhQMVCZRQBh3-XwqFEAAYAiAAEgKGE_D_BwE

LNG - A key transition fuel for the new energy landscape

Providing a consistent and secure source of energy supply, LNG offers a solution to managing both costs and emissions. As LNG trade drives the globalisation of gas and intensifies competition from buyers in Asia and Europe, navigate the new gas landscape with ICIS, the leader in gas market intelligence. Access independently sourced global spot price assessments and indices along with deep data sets, intuitive analytical tools, a news alert service and live tracking of 700 LNG cargo vessels, in one integrated solution.

Did read another recently Chinese, Korean and other major shipyards, breaking their necks, to provide several hundred new LNG ships and FLNG/FPSO platforms , some new ships fuelled by it and or Hydrogen , in the coming years, obvs , some will replace older vessels but its still seems like a very large expansion in progress already. 🤔

At least the 3rd time in a month both in the same room Jarv 🤔

On that last post comment, STRATEGIC worth of Chuditch.

TL have a blueprint for its progress and development STRATEGIC development plan SDP 2011-2030

The TL Ministry of STRATEGIC Planning and Infrastructure has an MOU with the China Ministry of overseas development , which the China mega BRI and GDI are linked.

The STRATEGIC P&I have on the books the 3 large scale projects but no funds (china bri) Metinaro P.I.T. Gas/lng Imports and 90-120 day tank farm, to supply 3 to be converted to Gas Power stations on the Island.

Beaco multi string Gas/LNG Exports refineries and port and Beaco Oil and Condensate refineries.

So in more immediate STRATEGIC terms Chuditch appraisal to production drilling Q4, has to be Strategically in pole position for the Metinaro project (pm rauk asap ,hoping all done by 2025/26) long before 2030/31 teners Sun/Beaco.

They need gas for their 3 power stations and we can give it to them, timelines have always looked Strategically linked

The politics was a factor and will remain but less so, all started in 2002 when first PM Gusmao alienated the industry, saying it was all ours , it will all come to the Island but having zero money to build themselves, many Majors/Tier1 companies departed the TL section of the Timor seaway, meanwhile the Indonesian and Australian Timor Sea areas became prolific.

Gusmao vision of it all happening soon, imminent in 2002, all know how that worked out, said did not need the outside world can do it themselves.

Now the politics is, we are going BROKE, we need the outside world , its industry and tech, with Horta and Gusmao racking up incredible air miles in the past two years , courting everyone for assistance and funding, recent events have brought forth many offers, the latest being China commitment to get involved with TL oil and gas plus infrastructure, raising TL from BRI level 1 to level 2 (huge funding)

The legacy elephant in the room sunrise rolls on BUT the rest of the area that also stalled and became stranded, is now also moving on.

Industry and political landscape has changed dramatically in the past year. Just remains for Mr Market to recognise that change and that AB is going to do the business, which seemed a million miles away for boil 2020-2023.

Just the past 3 months, when for years Chuditch rarely got any sort of mention, even in Timor Gap annual reports, likewise its web entry , last looked still on about Boil doing the seismic (done and reported on Jan2023) now getting regular mentions , of its STRATEGIC worth to TL.🤔

Shell thought Wombat , Bilby and Chuditch , now the NE and SW chud's could actually be a single giant connected field but due to the trench loud vibrations (constantly seismic itself very slowly moving west also) the seismic was never going to be conclusive to proving that theory. At the time said if proved up (more wells etc) it would take their initial estimate for the 3 from over 5 tcf to double that rating. Likewise reported addition 4 or 5 leads to the South and West, Bandicoot pulled in on Boils seismic rerun, renamed Quokka, so as been saying for a loooooooooong time, Chuditch GIIP and shells more oil or large condensate fields with more gas over (bandicoot etc) reserves etc , only going to get bigger.

Starting with CH2 , drilling reservoir estimate 149m v 25m CH1

Indonesia , one of those who promised cooperation and support and already been involved in many training the o&g tl workforce events, also have one coming up on 25th April

Join us for an evening of refreshments in Jakarta as we hear from PT PLN (Persero) Director of Legal & Human Capital, Yusuf Didi Setiarto, who will discuss the “Strategic Value of Gas and LNG to Support Energy Transition in Indonesia”.

Said for a long time AB and the SG team , the secret weapon, with all their connections Seapex and others they are ACTIVE in , this group do regular events also

https://www.aien.org/forms/MeetingCalendar/

Hmmmmmmmm, Another one with both AB and Woodside together.

Woodside Japan/INPEX/offtake companies +bank funding mou

Could live with that , what an RNA Message that would be 🤔

Https://www.aien.org/forms/meeting/Microsite/AP19April2024

Educational Seminar on Legal and Contractual Aspects of Natural Gas Projects

Ricardo Alves Silva, Partner, Miranda & Associados, AIEN President

Andy Butler, Managing Director, SundaGas Banda Unipessoal, Lda. **********

Caleb Jongeling, Senior Commercial Manager APAC for Exploration & Development, Woodside

Carlos Alves, Executive Director for Legal and Commercial, Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo

The Timor-Leste Petroleum Sector and the Timor Sea in the Aftermath of the 2019 Maritime Boundaries Treaty

Gualdino do Carmo da Silva, President of the Timor-Leste National Petroleum Authority (ANP)

David Perks, Partner, Dentons Perth

Ricardo Alves Silva, Partner, Miranda & Associados, AIEN President

Andy Butler, Managing Director, SundaGas Banda Unipessoal, Lda. *************

Did not expect value in 2020 , region still locked down and nothing happening, NOW do expect some value long before the drill, area changed , others also now moving, infrastructure coming, China BRI/GDI Mega Wonga in play , others like Qatar and Kuwait as well as other regionals, made statements about investing in TL Oil and Gas sector.

Area changed

Sector changed

Boil leadership most importantly CHANGED

Time they changed our valuation, long breathing with a snorkel in the flooded , rock bottom basement.😲🙄

📰👀👁👁👀👁‍🗨👁‍🗨

➕ve = ⛽⛽⛽💥💥💥🚀🚀🚀💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰

The Yeo ho ho snail , is now coiled by AB

https://media1.tenor.com/m/jGV5ABX10Z0AAAAC/snail-super-snail.gif

😉😂

Funding and a senior JV player, should finally wake up Mr Market but not holding my breath on that one, since the seismic etc as since day 1 Jan 2020, we have been given zip value for our gas, same as Boil's snail pace , started to catch up with the 5 tcf+ and more leads, it was brought to the market with originally on old Shell mapping and discovery drill metrics.

Time Mr Market gave Chuditch some love and a re rate , not another spike, at least from a kids choc bar per boe, to say a Thornton's Easter Egg🙄🙄😂

Wonder if that is what prompted the news earlier this week , Gusmao in London and moving on to Greece and Italy, talking about ISSUES with their Maritime borders, garnering international support, to have those boundaries tweaked again, squeeze out OZ , if they do not come up trumps , this time in Q4🤔

As said before , do not think as in the past, we are still chained to a sunrise resolution, still imo we will get that first ever TL yes for alternate method FPSO and with it a supply/offtake deal with TL for the Metinaro PIT and Power station project, PM Rauk said asap and hoped all completed by 2025/26.

Our methods and timeline , fit like a glove, long before the other project becomes a reality.

As that extract I posted yesterday from one of the recent RNA Messages, clearly states options not set, to be selected after full analysis of CH2 and after discussions with , T/Gap and the TL Ministry

More dots that fit for , we are at the heart of TL's more pressing immediate need for Gas and domestic security NOW/asap not 2030/31 when the other project can feed them.

Talking of feed, that commenced for Metinaro PIT , last October, FID stated as by end 2023 or IN Q1 2024 Latest, well its beyond latest, just had the meet with the money men in China, hoping that FID comes soon, that should give us a boost as , it instantly gives the market , a visible path to monetise , long denied in the area, which will be acceptable to the demon duo, regardless of what may of may not happen Q4 Sun/JV/Beaco/Darwin/other.

If that gets resolved bonus, two acceptable routes to market for G & H BEFORE we drill, can't keep valuation of our Gas at a price of a kids chocolate bar per boe, with options clearly in place. 🤔

Jarv another page link attached to that Woodside Q results, posted earlier on it, dated 17th still says looking at both options

when we know , TL only looking at one, put up or shove off😉😂