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Metalhead - it's partly explained in the update that there was delay in quarter in THS receiving monies from chrome concentrates which i assume will show up in the Jan-Mar 2022 quarter:

"Tharisa had a cash balance of US$79.1 million (30 September 2021 US$83.4 million) at the end of the quarter and debt of US$54.7 million (30 September 2021 US$35.5 million), the increased debt levels attributable to short term trade financing flows relating to the timing of chrome concentrate shipments resulting in a positive net cash position of US$24.4 million (30 September 2021 US$47.9 million)"

However I think it must partly also be explained by paying off the Vulcan Project Capex. In the THS Accounts FYE Sept 2021, the Trade Payables were $105m, more than the usual $53m odd. Some of this is attributable to the increase in production, which naturally increases both Receivables and Payables, but most of this must be Vulcan. Be good if THS can clarify in a follow-on interview/ analyst call if majority of Vulcan Capex now invoiced and paid off by THS to Contractors etc. Should also be noted Trade Receivables FYE Sept 2021 was a huge $137m far exceeding payables.

So with more than usual chrome concentrates monies coming through this Jan-Mar and hopefully if THS clarify bulk of Vulcan paid off, this quarter we're in now should see huge cash generation, particularly if PGM Basket holds up at $2,700 and Chrome at circa $175/tn.

Mike - I would be interested to understand how you calculated 16c per share for 2022 particularly with the increased guidance, which will increase revenues and through economies of scale decrease costs on per oz / per ton basis to partially offset other increased costs.

"FY2022 production guidance of between 165 koz to 175 koz PGMs (6E basis) and 1.75 Mt to 1.85 Mt of chrome concentrates. COVID-19 remains a risk to the Company and guidance is premised on the current level of economic activity being maintained"

Separately from a cashflow point of view, with $50m spent on Vulcan Project Capex in 2021, capex requirements will be far less this FY2022 and add to the cash build.

Really is exceptional news. A near 20yr low cost open pit mine life. Both operationally low cost and now no need for any capex to go underground. It makes the already ridiculously low PE ratio even more ridiculous, when we have such a great open pit mine life!

As others said, getting close to Financial Results 02 Dec and hopefully a separate RNS on Karo Resources soon too

Thanks for all the comments and additional info NewKOTB. Decided to buy some more today after re-reading last set of reports, presentations, completely separate to seeing UK Gas Futures for Dec have gone above £2/therm again. As I'm basing my decision on a much lower price and still think its incredibly undervalued.

Perhaps the one area i would like to see increase is more structured reporting by SQZ to blow their own trumpet. Is there a historical reason they don't provide unaudited quarterly reporting? Could be incredibly simple and short and sweet, just providing update on quarterly production, net cash position, short exploration/ new devs update. Otherwise there's a huge dearth of any shareholder info for months at a time. As an example, we may have to wait for Annual Report in April to know just what a bumper 2H 2021 we've had. And by then you already have a Q1 2022 completed too. Perhaps commencing in 2022 after release of the Annual Report, they should start simple 1-pager Quarterly Reporting? Not sure how others feel about it...

I know SQZ hedge to a certain extent, but putting this aside, could someone clarify what SQZ's BOE conversion price would be, using current market/ spot prices as an example, and if they normally receive "spot/marked price" for their products?

With SQZ's make-up being 20% oil / 80% gas:

- Brent at $80 * 20% = $16
- UK Nat Gas at £1.9/therm * 1.35 (Forex) / 58.6 (therm to barrel oil conversion) * 80% = $120
- Total SQZ BOE price = $136/boe

My therm conversion of 58.6 is ever so slightly different to online calculators of 58 therms = 1 boo, which I can explain in bit more detail from stats table I took from SQZ 2020 Accounts, but just wanted to check I'm on right path, as if $136/ boe is in right ballpark, SQZ appears obscenely undervalued.

Based on next 2022 guidance of 27,100 - 33,600 and taking midpoint of 30,000 boepd which would produce circa 10.2mmboe per annum, the revenue over a year would be $1.4bn (yes I know £1.9 per therm probably won't last, but indulge me for now).

In terms of cost of sales, for 1H 2021 it was £55m, for 2020 £129m, 2019 £165m. If we get back to 30,000 boepd area for 2022, we could go back to circa £160m ($216m) cost of sales equating to $21 per boe. With perhaps Capex of £100m ($135m), you would be looking at $1bn free cashflow in a year (before tax) on a market cap of £501m. Even if gas averaged £1/ therm (SQZ BOE would then by $79/boe), FCF would be circa $458m. With SQZ having well over £100m in bank by now, this would be PE of less than 1.

I assume I've missed some deductions, costs or other variables I haven't considered out, otherwise apart from AXA selling down providing an opportunity, it seems incredibly "cheap"?!

Beat me to the punch nimrod. Yes very good write up, should be in paper copy today too:

Tharisa’s dividend looks precious: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/11/11/tharisa-s-dividend-looks-precious/

It finally gets the "SLP treatment" in the IC, much deserved as in my opinion THS is a far superior share in comparison to SLP, on all major metrics (Forward PE, growth prospects etc.). SLP's Net Cash position better than THS, but with Vulcan Project up and running, THS will soon surpass SLP on this metric too. Some snippets from IC:

"The consensus forecast for free cash flow (FCF) in the recently completed financial year to the end of September 2021 is $179m (£132m) [...] FCF for the last financial year is expected to be around two-fifths of the company’s entire enterprise value (market cap plus debt minus cash)"

"And 2021 is not expected to be a one-off. Broker Peel Hunt thinks that over the next three financial years, after paying dividends, the company can produce $250m of surplus cash"

Goes on further to talk about such FCF and profits should yield div of 7% according to Peel Hunt, whilst then discussing growth prospects coming to fruition in Zimbabwe which we've all discussed on here and know about anyway: " Tharisa is moving toward a green light on a Zimbabwe platinum project, and has started construction at a new chrome project in the same country".

Definitely worth a read and fills a gap between next news on 02 Dec for Annual Results and potentially a stand-alone RNS on the huge Zim Platinum Project.

If that was the case surely they would be considered part of the "free float" and therefore way above the 25% threshold.

The only reason this delisting can occur is the free float is below 25% FCA limit. Otherwise the IIs could torpedo this and vote against it. Push for higher sale price. Half of the market cap is in cash, even before this current blowout Q4. The IIs must all be on board at delisting at this price, knowing they'll get huge dividends soon as they go private. The excuse about financing is a joke now they have huge amounts of cash

What do JKX plan to do with all this cash? I can't see any history of a dividend payment nor a presentation outlining dividend policy...

I understand cash may be used to hopefully grow organically, but surely with such a large cash pile compared to market cap, they would pay a dividend?

You have to wonder just how much of the 2020 BP write downs of some $17.5 billion of its assets will gradually be reversed and bolster the value of the company even further. This was at a time Brent was $37 and average forecast was only $55 barrel.

Article in Daily Telegragh Money with above headline, with analyst stating "Polymetal International, forecast to yield 9.8pc next year". The graphic actually shows POLY at 12.4% but think that's a mistake. Think they forecast 12.4% for Rio Tinto and 12.2% for BHP in article itself, but would think these forecasts for industrial metals miners more susceptible to major slowdown in China.

Baron - change can also happen far far slower than we all think too. As an example nuclear fusion has always been "10yrs away" for the last 50yrs! Still unclear where all the lithium and cobalt will come from to allow adoption of EVs en masse, where all the electricity will come from, particularly with continued development of Africa, South America, India etc. and their demand for energy, oil and gas. UK is a minnow in the grand scheme of fossil fuel demand, particularly going forward.

I'm very pessimistic UK can meet their 2030 targets, Europe their 2035 targets (automakers already lobbying to push this back by 5-10yrs), let alone rest of the world.

Thanks for posting the Proactive interview, would have missed it otherwise. Great to note:
- payback period for Vulcan Fine Chrome is only 2yrs (subject to chrome price). So considering Capex was $55m, Vulcan Fine Chrome alone will generate free cashflow of $27.5m p.a., possibly more or less depending on where Chrome price currently at $165tn goes from here.
- Gearing up to achieve 200K PGM oz p.a. over next 24 months (from current annualised 160K PGM Oz p.a.)
- Zim Great Dyke Karo Resources Implementation Studies complete, Resource & Reserve statements being declared, with THS coming to market shortly with update on that. As reminder under Zimplats which relinquished this Asset, they estimated a 96 Moz 4E resource (platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold) grading at 3.2g/t, declared by Zimplats in 2017.

I should add don't personally want a Takeover (nor do I think it's likely), as longer-term once the semi-conductor shortage abates, I think there is room for large capital growth + meaty dividends (particularly with bulk of Vulcan complete), but never say never and just thought interesting to put it in perspective compared to current THS market cap

Great news today on Vulcan and very well drafted RNS ticking all the boxes on production/ financial (effectively 20% increase in chrome production through efficiencies at minimal cost, pushing down overall chrome AISC per ton through economies of scale), ESG (increase in efficiency/ recoveries and therefore reduction in waste, carbon footprint etc.) and very importantly 90% of Capex in-country SA great for local content/ beneficiation. Just one of many arguments for Chrome SA as to why a Chrome Tax is terrible idea - it is energy costs that is the issue for ferro-chrome smelters, not the export of chrome ore.

With Vulcan being the only large scale plant to produce chrome concentrates from chrome ultra-fines, R&D in-house, with a great reliable large low cost open pit mine (2MT chrome p.a., 200k PGMs in future p.a., 14yr open pit, 40yr underground), it surely must be a prime takeover target for one of the big boys like Anglo American, Sibanye or Northam, for the right price if the Pouroulis family were interested. At very least must be on their radars! Pouroulis family sold Eland in the past to Xstrata (Glencore) and moved on to new ventures, so whether they do it again who knows. Any acquirer would be getting a great mine, great management and could apply large ultra fine chrome recovery plant proprietary designs to their own mine sites. Whilst everyone is focused on the demand side due to the autos semi-conductor shortages impacting autos production, longer term there's still a major supply issue with deep underground platinum, palladium + rhodium mines being near exhausted, uneconomical (particularly if we see Sotolo's prediction of Rh collapsing into the 1000s) and unsafe. Added to this if any imminent PFS and later DFS + BFS shows Karo Resources Zim Great Dyke site to be a huge open pit platinum mine as anticipated, they would be buying into this too (of course subject to usual Zim Gov approvals too) - which once again would be another open pit mine to replenish/ replace deep uneconomic underground mines. Zimplats (Impala) were forced to relinquish Great Dyke assets originally, which is why I mention the other major players as better fit.

It's interesting to note when Pouroulis family sold Eland to Xstrata in Aug 2007, it's resource was 22.7m Oz PGM open pit + underground with estimated production 280k Oz p.a. 4E PGM resources (wasn't even in production until later that year), PGM basket of $1,424 per oz Aug 2007. It was sold for $1bn. THS SA resource alone is 172 Mt in contained Cr2O3 and 42.8m oz PGMs, 200k 4E PGMS p.a. anticipated in future (currently circa 160K p.a.), 2MT Chrome, which at present prices is PGM Eq of > 125k oz, so in total >325K oz PGM Eq Oz, current basket of $2,440 per Oz. So on all metrics THS SA asset alone (let alone Zim Great Dyke) is superior to Eland with larger resource and higher PGM basket, THS is £281m market cap ($379m), compared to Eland sale of $1bn.

I'm with HL too and it's a bit of a joke you can't transfer your dividends cash from Income to Capital Account with the App. Still waiting on mine too...

You really are a bizarre person Gavster, as can be seen from your previous posting on the BP board. It's just complete lies PAF's PE is below 6 (I guess you incorrectly don't normalize for Net Debt) and I never said Evander makes up the most production, it makes up the vast majority of their RESOURCES. So PAF's actual economic mine life is far lower than the resources imply, hence it will always have a low PE coupled with being in SA. As for the report you mention, where do you think I took PAF's uncompetitive AISC of $1,200 and the huge Capex required for Egoli. Perhaps take your erroneous pumping elsewhere.

When you take into account PAF's Net Debt of $33m, their PE is actually over 6, which is about right for a SA mid-tier mining play and the associated SA risks. There's much better SA plays in the precious metals mining business with far lower PEs below 5 if you wanted to go down that route (THS, SLP) or even the larger PGM miners. So would not recommend PAF at all over a FTSE100 large cap like BP, which is far less risky play.

PAF have very high costs (AISC > $1,200) and the vast majority of their reserves are linked to incredibly costly underground mine Evander. They will need to spend a very large amount of Capex to get next Project Egoli up and running (which doesn't increase production but plug gaps).

It's not a joke at all, it's an extremely clear policy and makes no bones about clearly stating the lower of Net Profit OR free cashflow.

With very clear projections on Capex and growth particularly in 2022 & 2023 in the same presentation, it should be obvious to most there will be no divs until late 2024/ 2025, depending on gold price and repayment terms + timetable for any finance/loan packages. Who knows could be earlier depending on whether they go for financing/loans or a mix of equity.

Overall its a very good presentation, step change in both concise and detailed information and due to quality should have been a RNS if just to get more attention/ exposure.

Apart from market specific news on PGMs, Chrome and Semi-conductor chips situation, isn't much company specific news until:

1) 12 Oct - FY Q4 Production Report
2) 02 Dec - FY2021 Results
3) Zimbabwe Karo Resources news should be imminent according to last THS presentation, whereby 2 stages of exploration were already complete and studies were underway due for completion by FYE Sep 2021. Subsequent to this THS outlined 3 steps of "declaration of resource and reserve; Publication of implementation study; and Completion of financing package". Project focus on +10yr open pit mine life and Project execution and development within 24 months (pg.18 of THS presentation released 12-Jul-2021).

I assume you mean $100million not £100,000 p.a. Sotolo?! It's great you've kept board alive as I like others lurk everyday, but with no company specific news I haven't really posted and with 1st travelling and now family issues, haven't had time. You still appear to be rather prone to daily panic/ hyperbole on the negative side, which feels like you're over-invested/ over-leveraged and worry excessively about each and every gyration. I see you've given both barrels on here and ADVFN! THS is my largest holding, but with large holdings in other high dividend paying companies (BP, RDSB, POLY, FRES, FXPO etc.), many other minnows (ALTN, SLE, SRB, AAZ etc.) and cash on sidelines after trimming my FXPO position, I try to tend not to panic.

No one "poo pood" your concerns Rh will fall further, I did however poo poo your contention it would fall to the very low 1000s again, $2,000 as you state on ADVFN. Whilst the autos semi-conductor chip shortage is going on longer than anticipated, particularly considering earlier financial articles a couple months back stating autos production could be back to normal by late Q3/Q4 2021, this now looks to be pushed back to 2022 for normality. So let's see if your prediction is realized.

I also think it's more constructive putting the declines in to correct context, rather than solely to panic:

a) THS has market cap of £288m ($397m)

b) THS has Net Cash position of $41.8m (end Jun-21) and Trade Balance in THS favour of $76.8m (end of Mar-21). That's a combined total of $118.6m (albeit fair value calc for trade receivables would have reduced due to PGM basket change).

c) Looking forward to FYE Sep 2022 based on these current PGM ($2,500oz) + Chrome Prices ($175tn) and their respective production (160k PGMs and 2m tns Chrome), THS will have earnings of $100m from 6E PGMs and $95m from Chrome = $195m.

d) Taking into account D&A/ Stay In Business (SIB) Capex of $50m (largely same/ 2 sides of same coin), SA Tax (26%) and BEE interest of 24% in THS Minerals, THS Net Profit would be circa $82m. Considering Vulcan is now also nearing completion, bearing in mind other Growth/ Expansionary Capex (different to SIB), free cashflow going forward may not be dissimilar to THS Net Profit. Of course we have Zimbabwe assets and other SA assets, but assume proceeding with Zim assets would be subject to separate financing, after we receive updated technical studies.

So taking into account THS Net Cash + Trade Balance ($118.6m) and THS Net Profit $82m, THS is on a Forward PE of less than 4 based on current PGM + Chrome basket.