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At these oil prices the $1.4bn buybacks are intended to be every quarter though, so it will eclipse any staff incentive schemes

Iron Ore CNH100 spot on IG Markets is up whopping 6-7% today. Perhaps the bottom in iron ore is in, however let's see what market makes of US Fed at Jackson Hole this week and ongoing China supply-demand dynamics.

In an article mainly on oil prices, Goldman covers many commodities incl iron and seems to think bottom could be in:

"we expect an improvement in China’s steel demand trends in Q4 (vs Q3) though the trend will be closer to flat y/y into next year. In this context we also see iron ore as oversold after a near 30% fall. A combination of improving steel demand, policy developments and a stabilizing physical market should act as upside catalysts for iron ore."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-goldman-sees-oil-hitting-new-highs-after-recent-rout

Of course take Goldman with pinch of salt, don't trust much of what they say, but on commodities they're not too bad.

1) What big institutional investors (plural) are you referring to? FIL has been selling down and has been selling a number of miners across their portfolio for long time now - who knows if they're now out/ stopped. Rance Holdings % has not really changed over the years and fluctuates between 14-15%. Fujian has gone from 7.2% in Sept 2020 to 10.2% as of last update in July 2021. We also appear to have new II in Maaden at 3.8%. I'd be far more worried about Africa Asia Capital selling down their holding in SLP.

2) THS are expanding into Zimbabwe and we're due update imminently on Karo Resources, a huge PGM project. On metals THS is in both PGMs and Chrome. You mention SLP being a better investment than THS, yet they're far less diversified, so it's a strange contradictory statement to make. SLP are in PGMs only and SA only, with no way to expand. They are also solely reliant on Samancor who provide the Chrome Tailings, whereas THS operate their own mine.

3) THS has an Investor Relations Rep and social media is only 1 part - THS provide useful update on their twitter, on market intelligence and the company itself, it hardly has an obsession. What I would like to see though and maybe they perform this already, SLP did a great job twice a year behind the scenes of performing "road shows" presentations in London across major IIs/ financial institutes as part of their Interims and Financial Reports release.

I said at the time when THS and SLP had the same market cap it was absolutely ridiculous and not based on any fundamentals. And here we are with this downturn in the market and THS have held up far better - THS at £308m market cap, SLP £256m. Both undervalued in long-term, but still the gap between the 2 should be far wider. In short-term the markets are extremely choppy and concern seems to be building over Delta in Asia and Australasia. However long-term it may prove to be overdone and the FED and others Central Banks talk of "tightening" will soon reverse to the exact opposite.

Sotolo - you miss the point that in the world of low PEs for South African miners, THS PE is half that of its peers (PAF, Impala etc.) and irrespective of metal prices which move all these companies, should be 2x its current market cap. You keep banging on about "metals may be at peak" and you may inadvertently be right if Delta causes China to crash and burn, but once again that impacts all PGM and mining companies. Hell if China crashes, it will impact the entire global stock markets.

On dividend, I once again, partly, respectively disagree for number of reasons:

1) THS don't put "83% of profit back in the ground". THS dividend policy is 15% Net Profit After Tax (NPAT), but routinely pay out 17% which I assume is where you get your 83%. However the NPAT is before the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) equity of the THS SA Minerals assets of 26%, so the 17% NPAT is more like 20-25% of actual free cashflow.

2) On your comment that "profit back in the ground may or may not give future returns", what is your opinion on Vulcan Fine Chrome which has capex of $50m, should add 500k tn chrome p.a. and $40m+ EBITDA p.a.?. Do you think that project's IRR "may or may not give future returns"? Or would you prefer just to get a big dividend and let THS be idle at 1.5MT chrome with no growth prospects? All miners need to grow or else stagnate and will all have their own internal IRR metrics to future proof and stress test projects versus metal price movements.

3) I completely understand Ragnar's frustration on the Zim assets as we don't yet have detailed analysis or IRRs for Projects, nor the SA Manganese or Greek JV which I do think are distractions, but very minor in grand scheme, however we will be getting studies, financing options very soon for the major Zim PGM Project and can make up our minds then. I personally believe THS' Zim asset which is likely open pit with very good IRR will be transformational. Is it likely to mean global oversupply of PGMs in long-term? Yes, but then it is the unsafe, underground PGM mines of the majors that would suffer, not THS.

4) On dividend, now THS are Net Cash, I would agree it should at very least be 25-30% NPAT and THS should still be able to fund its SA growth prospects, with Zim growth subject to separate financing. But I always find the impatience quite bizarre. It was not long ago THS was in Net Debt position and looking at developing Vulcan with financing options. I prefer that THS have built up a healthy Net Cash position.

Asking someone where a share price will be in 4 months time is asking them to predict where Rhodium, Palladium, Platinum and Chrome will be in 4 months time. What will happen to China with the Delta variant. What will happen with the semi-conductor chips shortages in autos which appear to have abated, the global health of the economy and USD. The best analyst at any investment bank with all the algorithms and insider knowledge would not be able to answer this.

PAF
1) Market Cap: £309m
2) Production: 195 – 200k oz Gold (less than THS’ 230-240k Oz PGM Eq Oz)
3) Margin: $1,730 - $1,100 AISC = $620 oz (less than half of THS’ $1,345 oz margin). On AISC, we really need to see PAF’s next set of financial results ending June 2021, but their aspiration of $1,000 is always out of reach, I do not think they can consistently achieve this, but do think they will improve upon the last reported $1,252 oz.
4) Forward EBITDA: $121 - 124m ($620 x 190-200k oz) (just over a third of THS’ EBITDA)
5) LoM & Resources: Barberton (70-80k oz p.a., 20yrs) BTRP (20k oz p.a., 2023 + potential 6yr extension), Elikhulu (50-60k oz pa, 2030), Evander 8-shaft (30k oz pa, 2-3yrs + potential extensions through new shafts), Resources of 37.6m oz, of which Reserves 10.9m oz. Not only is this already less than THS resources, but is far more complex and the bulk of these Reserves & Resources is Evander, an extremely costly underground mine and likely uneconomic. PAF constantly running into problems through the years due to complexity of their mine sites.
6) Capex: to ensure “steady state around 180 - 200k oz”, PAF have revolving list of projects, shafts etc. and appear to spend ZAR 700m ($45-50m) per year on average. So their SIB Capex is same as THS’ $50m
7) Expansion: Egoli (circa 70k oz p.a. LoM 9-14yrs), financing of ZAR 1.2bn ($83m) to fund construction over 2.5yrs (this will plug some of gap of short mine life above, not lead to direct increase of 70k oz)
8) Net Debt: US$33.8m as of June 2022 (on top of this, taking on significant further debt for Egoli expansion or extending the Egoli development eating up more free cashflow). So THS Net Cash position circa $75m in better shape and generating cash far quicker than PAF.
9) Trade Balance (Receivables – Payables): -$37m owed by PAF (Interims End Dec 2020). Includes liabilities PAF don’t include in Net Debt. So THS books are $110m+ in better shape.
10) Dividend Yield: <4% and unlike THS with the “good problem” of investors complaining the dividend could be more generous, PAF to sustain production have lots of capex to fund and still Net Debt position, so may struggle to increase dividend, unless at detriment of balance sheet.

To say THS market cap should be x2 PAFs market cap on all metrics is bit of an understatement, but at a more general level not taking into account the superior THS resource (size, consistency, margin per oz etc. etc.) + expansion opportunities, doubling of THS market cap would align THS’ PE with PAFs, when it has the superior asset + expansion plans.

THS
1) Market Cap: £307m
2) Production: 160k oz p.a. 6E PGMs (aspiring to 200k oz) & 1.5Mt Chrome (increasing to 2MT from Oct 2021 onwards), which is 230 – 240k Oz “PGM Equivalent Ounces”
3) Margin:
a) PGMs: $2,705 ($3,128 basket x 86.5% to take account of refiner’s fees etc.) - $1,360 AISC = $1,345 oz
b) Chrome: $170tn ($180tn chrome ore x 95% for certain discounts/ fees) - $105 AISC = $65tn
4) Forward EBITDA: $345m, of which PGMs $215m (PGMs $1,345 x 160k oz) & Chrome $130m ($65tn x 2Mt). Haven’t even included the PGMs 200k Oz p.a. goal in this.
5) LoM & Resources: Open Pit until 2034, thereafter Underground Mine 40yrs+. Resources of 42.79m oz contained 6PGE+Au* & 172 MT IN CONTAINED Cr2O3.
6) Capex: $50m p.a. of “Stay In Business” SIB Capex & for FYE Sep 2021 $50m for Vulcan Fine Chrome (to be completed Sept/ Oct 2021)
7) Expansion:
a) Vulcan Fine Chrome Project ($50m), increase Chrome to 2Mt, which through economies of scale should reduce Chrome AISC as well as increasing production. Now imminent so I have included it in calcs above
b) Increase of PGMs from 160k to 200K Oz.
c) Zimbabwe Karo Resources (26% THS ownership but can be increased) 96 Moz 4E resource (platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold) grading at 3.2g/t. 32.4 km of drilling to average shallow depths of between 50 and 150m, to identify open pittable resources. Studies + financing options imminent.
d) Vertical downstream expansion to refine PGMs, capturing the 13.5 - 15% revenues lost by sending PGM concentrates to refiners like Impala.
8) Net Cash: US$41.8m (calendar Q2 2021)
9) Trade Balance in THS favour (Receivables – Payables): $76.8m owed to THS (Interims Mar 2021)
10) Dividend Yield: circa 6% and that’s arguably on a metric that can be vastly improved, subject to growth opportunities.

Ragnar - I completely agree a companies PE can not be viewed in a vacuum, which is why I always compare companies I invest in to others of its regional peers or indeed other peers if it helps. However in the correct context, I think normalized PE is the best way of valuing a company, taking into account geopolitical/ regional norms and key company attributes such as Life of Mine, Resources - Size, Quality, Consistency, Complexity etc. As an example, if you have a great gold mining company churning out profit, but only has LoM of 5yrs, the PE of course discounted should be far less than 5.

So whilst I agree with you on the broad strokes, I respectfully disagree with you on the application of this to THS. There's wide disparities between THS and its regional peers and simply lumping them all in as "PE <5 is far from unique" does a major disservice. There's a huge difference with THS being on a normalised PE of 2.5 versus PAF of nearer 5. For THS to revert to its peers of Impala and PAF, it would have to double in market cap for its PE to revert to higher end of 5. A heck of a lot of space in terms of peers being <5 when THS is at the lower end of that very wide grouping.

I'm not sure how you calculated THS' 3.2x PE, if this is normalised for its Net Cash position of $41.8m or if its forward looking based on current PGM and Chrome prices (your calcs are normally bang on, so I trust it is accurate based on the metrics you've taken it from), but I get closer to < 2.5 Forward PE and that's taking into account of course Net Profit, after Tax and BEE Interest 26%. I will admit I've plugged in 2MT Chrome now we're less than 2 months away from Vulcan coming on line and used most up to date PGMs + Chrome prices. Also unlike all of its mining rivals who are at the top of their supply chain and have very large Trade Payables deficits payable to Contractors, due to THS' current unique nature of providing concentrates to refiners, it is owed a huge amount of monies and has very large Trade Receivables balances in its favour of over $75m at last count (SLP of course has similar model) and is often overlooked on balance sheet. If this balance was correctly normalised, it pushes THS normalized PE down yet further to 2.

"The global semiconductor shortage we have been reporting on for the better part of the last year looks as though it could finally be turning a corner for the automotive industry. Smartphone production, however, may have to continue to suffer deficient supply until well into 2022, according to a new report by Reuters."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/semi-shortage-may-be-nearing-end-autos-overall-supply-will-remain-limited-until-second

The above article provides a good, relatively bullish update on autos supply concerns dissipating in the autos sector. Amid a complete collapse in autos production due to the semi conductor shortage in last few Qs, which in turn must have caused a collapse in catalytic converters and hence the raw materials, PGMs that went into them, Rhodium only went down to $18,000 area where it is today (a "higher low"). If autos production now returns to normal, what do you think that will do to Rhodium demand and hence pricing? There certainly hasn't been much increase in Rh supply that I can see, which remains inelastic. Rebound in autos production will no doubt take time and Rh could continue to creep lower, but I can see it recovering once more if this major supply disruption managed to only get Rhodium back to the $17-18k area. I don't think the "market" quite realises how tight both the palladium and Rhodium supply is, nor how overground supplies are near exhausted.

If the market was "right", no one would ever make any money. COVID has been awful for economies, lives and political decisions making the whole thing even worse, however it's created incredible opportunities in the markets.

Separate to the points you raise, I think the main issue currently outside THS control is the unrest in SA, which is very hard to predict in the medium to long-term.

In short-term it creates huge geo-political uncertainty for SA and therefore SA companies, while pushing up PGM and Chrome prices due to said uncertainty, so it's a bit of a double-edged sword. I do not know nearly enough about the situation to provide analysis. However with the significant ramp-up in SA military deployment to support/ replace the inept police, I would expect/ hope it to help the situation significantly. Separate to THS, it is terrible for the SA economy and its people and hope its resolved soon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-14/extra-army-troops-help-quell-deadly-riots-south-africa-says

4) Presentations: I for one am very happy with the stakeholder engagement. It was only circa 1yr ago most of us on this board were chastising THS for not engaging shareholders enough. They have taken on many comments of PIs (e.g. Q reports are now more detailed, provide Net Cash metrics etc.), their Interims accounts are incredibly detailed, far more than any other LSE company I follow bar some FTSE100 and they now regularly engage with PIs and answer vast majority of all questions in a transparent manner. Yes there is a lot of repetition, but unfortunately they have to do this for potential new investors.

5) Dividends: for last 5yrs, THS have paid out divs of 17%+ NPAT, over the 15% NPAT policy. We also have to remember once you take into account the non-controlling interest, this div already represents circa 25% and perhaps they should start to represent it in this manner. I have no doubt the final dividend post Sept 2021 Account will push the dividend policy past 17% again. The remaining Vulcan Capex of $40m + Karo Zim Capex were back-ended to 2H so they may have wanted some wiggle room, but whatever the reason, I personally was not too bothered with the Interim div being 14% rather than 15%. The key factor is that the FY div overall is 15%+ NPAT. I will accept though post FY 2021 with Vulcan complete, Net Cash position, THS should be increasing the dividend significantly, unless they very explicitly specify why (Karo Zim requires XXX expedited Capex etc.)

Hi Ragnar – good to hear from you again on THS board, I’ve been bit MIA too as been travelling length and breadth of USA so been bit snowed under. I thought you may also have been busy too and/ or sold, as you did allude to being disappointed on the 14% NPAT interim dividend previously and you have fleshed out other reasons today. To provide a counterpoint:

1) Salene Zim Assets: I’m personally very comfortable with the other assets of Salene Chrome and Karo Resources (PGMs). Salene Chrome has always been billed as an “entry asset” to understand Zimbabwe more, but could be a nice little earner on its own. Karo Resources asset is relatively well known technically through the work Zimplats have performed (96 Moz 4E resource (platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold) grading at 3.2g/t declared by Zimplats in 2017)), before they were forced to relinquish it. THS have also been clear on the way forward and we should be due studies end August 2021.

2) The selling still appears to be an II (FIL), which no doubt with recent SA troubles may cause PIs to be wary as well. There are many of the usual reasons why smaller companies like SLP and THS would initially get hit far harder than the big boys from geopolitical risks (more illiquid, less diverse geographically, smaller market cap meaning selling required to initiate drop easier etc. etc.). In terms of II notifications, it is my understanding it is not THS direct responsibility to issue updated RNS’ notifications, but the sellers/ buyers. However THS do provide regular updates through the presentations. For example in the recent Mello presentation, it is clear FIL continue to sell and have reduced from 9.9% as of Sept 2020 to now being only 2.7. However if you look at the other IIs, Medway (Pouroulis family) remains the same at 40%, Fujian on the other hand has increased from 7.2% to 10.2% (back to near their IPO holding %). As you also know well from our SLP days, IIs are not always “smart money”. We’ve discussed many times how II selling provides many opportunities – for example how SLP plunged to 7p on back of an II selling. Much later on Majedie selling out of SLP in 30p only to see it rebound almost immediately to 60p+ is 2 of many examples.

3) Growth projects: THS have been clear on the growth projects that are viable and coming to fruition (Vulcan Project increasing Chrome to 2MT p.a., Karo Resources study due, slow ramp up to Salene Chrome etc.). I’ll admit I’m wary regarding Salene Maganese and Greece Nickel projects, but if these were close to fruition, I would expect some additional transparency from THS. I would disagree that the world doesn’t need a Karo. Karo is a low-cost 10yrs+ open pitable project, it means the world will need less dangerous 1km deep underground PGM mines. Also with the Hydrogen economy, we might soon realise PGMs have a bright future and ICE vehicles are here for lot lot longer than most expect.

Cont...

For those who missed the Mello Monday Presentation, here is a link to the video on youtube, THS starts at 1:22:21. And after that link to the Powerpoint Presentation on THS website

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zXAqpLs6Qc at 1:22:21

https://www.tharisa.com/ovr-presentations.php

Sotolo - I see that cup is still half empty.

- Why do you believe Rhodium could even fall back to "couple thousand"?! Which analysts or companies have projected such a large fall and fundamental shift back to the old norm, which appears behind us?
- For this to happen, you must believe the long-term chronic under supply vs demand balance will shift. All major economies over last few years have enacted stringent emission standards requiring increased PGM loadings in CC, some of these have not even been felt yet on demand side, yet we still have a lack of Rh supply compared to demand, which only shifted in short-term due to lack of semi-conductor chips impacting car production, which likely will continue through 2021. So where do you believe this new supply of Rh or lack of demand of Rh will come from, to change the balance in medium to long-term?
- Even with adoption of EVs, due to increase demand for autos across the globe, continued modernization of developing continents (Africa et al), even with EV % autos increasing, the total number of cars is projected to increase and thus total number of cc cars increasing in total. What about this tells you the dynamics of the PGM industry is "short term"?
- These projections are based on best case scenarios of EVs, which are already lagging projections. No one has still answered the question where all this lithium will be supplied from - there simply isn't enough of it for the fanciful projections, even if you project out that new technology + increased prices will unlock new lithium mining deposits. NHM did a good overview of the challenges, that no one has yet adequately answered, particularly on the lithium and cobalt front:

https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/news/2019/june/we-need-more-metals-and-elements-reach-uks-greenhouse-goals.html
https://www.nhm.ac.uk/press-office/press-releases/leading-scientists-set-out-resource-challenge-of-meeting-net-zer.html
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/demand-for-platinum-and-palladium-in-auto-sector-set-to-rise-as-regulations-tighten-2021-07-02/rep_id:3650

In summary, I think your long-term pessimism as this being a "short term share" is ill-founded and you do not back it up with any fundamental research on actual supply v demand dynamics. Albeit this partly explains why you appear to "clock watch" the share and appear so nervous - as you see it as short-term and no doubt trying to perfectly time an exit, which is always hard for us PIs.

Due to semi-conductor chip shortages severely impacting autos production, we must have had a complete collapse in Rh demand from the norm, yet Rh is still at $18k, a high price something none of us thought possible over a year ago - we were all just dreaming of $12-14k+. Could it go a lot lower in short-term due to semiconductor shortages, of course. But due to fundamental shift, it should find a new higher base, before pushing up with both end of semi-conductor shortages and re-opening of economies.

Devil - I got mine with HL today. If you go to cash tab, it should be sitting in the "income and loyalty bonus" section and there is an option to "transfer your income balance to your capital account now", which once there will allow you to re-invest in shares or withdraw as cash. Otherwise if you don't do this manually and haven't set up an automatic instruction, I think it just sits there until it's released to capital account after 5 days or so.

I still think Matthey and BASF websites are most up to date and accurate:

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-tables
https://apps.catalysts.basf.com/apps/eibprices/mp/

Matthey website provides 4 prices per day for each PGM, BASF 2 prices, even for those not traded in open market/ spot, but on contract, like Rhodium. As "end-users", they appear far more accurate than Kitco. THS also put out regular-ish updates on PGM basket and sometimes Chrome price on twitter:

https://twitter.com/tharisa_sa

Good to note Chrome is partially strengthening again at $155-160tn.

Hi Raxfactor - ditto and thanks for posting link to the informative video. Agree 2 key interesting takeaways for me were strip ratio and THS' Arxo outfit performing services for Sibanye.

On the strip ratio, I'm surprised they did not include the H1 2021 data, which shows strip ratio of circa 11, lower than 2020. We also know the AISCs from strip ratios of 11-12 from FY 2020 and 1H 2021, so that type of strip ratio is baked into all our back of the packet forward PE calcs. It is very good question though and one we should raise at next investor meet: what is "steady state" strip ratio. I would hazard a guess it is the 11-12 area, however if we move on to new pit area section, you never know could go back down again. Hence be interesting question for THS to clarify.

Rax - it's an admirable effort and well worth a view, but:

1) They don't understand the non-controlling interest in the Accounts is the 26% BEE of Tharisa Minerals. This is also fundamental reason for company structure, so only the SA assets subject to BEE laws are ring-fenced.
2) They don't understand that Tharisa Minerals sells its PGM concentrate to a Refiner so they don't receive the entire PGM basket, hence why THS Revenues is slightly less than if you simply perform: "PGM Oz x PGM Spot".

We've of course discussed these points at length here and the latter is the same over at SLP with their accounts, albeit with a much higher % refiner fee. It makes a proper analysis of THS (or SLP on latter point) incredibly difficult if you don't understand these 2 fundamental points. These points have also been discussed at length by THS to investors in the investor presentations.

Their forward P/E is all over the place too. On front page they have "4.3" which I thought was clearly wrong, then when you get to the 32min mark they have around "2" based on current spot prices and future production growth, which is more in line with my own.

On Chrome Tax, whilst I think it's a terrible idea, it is not chrome miners like THS that pay the tax, it is the customer (China). Now you could have SA chrome miners fighting over market share and agreeing with their customers to swallow some of the costs, but 100%? They do highlight though that a chrome tax has very little effect overall on THS based on current PGM prices.

They also do not mention at all that Institutional Investors selling THS has depressed share price (FIL and partly Rance Holdings), just as II selling did with SLP many years back to push it down to 7p for great buying opportunity, or later Majedie at 30p. THS appears to be in the same place SLP was few years back.

Feynzz - correct and I calculated it based on $58m, however Ragnar is correct the dividend calculation of % NPAT is based on NPAT before non controlling interest deduction.

I just double checked 2020 FY which was a 17% dividend of NPAT, based on NPAT before you deduct non-controlling interest.

I'm not quite sure how the person writing the article came up with 14%.

Earnings per share in the Interims was 21.4c, with a 4c dividend being 18.7% of EPS.

If I use these new metrics for forwarding forecasting on an annualised basis to calculate a Forward “Free Cashflow to Market Cap”, normalising for current USD-ZAR Forex. For simplicity also assuming D&A and SIB Capex are largely the same, which they are, so “Earnings” and “Free Cashflow” are effectively one and the same, interchangeable, for purposes of back of packet calculation:

PGM Basket: $3,703 (as per JM prices) x 86.5% (THS discount to spot 13.5%) = $3,203 per Oz
PGM All-in-cost: $1,429 per Oz (takes into account Forex of 13.8)
PGM Earnings/ FCF: 160-200k PGMs x $1,774 (margin above) = $284m - $355m (conservative – have not applied economies of scale efficiency savings per oz through increased PGM production)

Chrome: $150tn x 95% = $143tn
Chrome All-in-cost: $109tn (takes into account Forex of 13.8)
Chrome Earnings/ FCF: 1.5 – 2Mt x $33 - $51 margin = $50m – $102m

The increase in PGM + Chrome production will of course lower all-in-cost per oz through economies of scale. We already know Vulcan only costs additional $10tn to eek out that extra 500k tonnes. Instead of $109tn All-in-cost I use above, you could actually be looking at $92tn, meaning Chrome Earnings of $102m at top end.

TOTAL EARNINGS/ FCF: $334m - $457m
TOTAL EARNINGS/ FCF LESS TAX (circa 25%): $251m - $343m
TOTAL EARNINGS/ FCF ATTRIBUTABLE TO THS (76%): (in Interims non-controlling interest was 24% of Income): $191m - $261m

Current Market Cap: £390m ($550m). So at present it’s on a Forward PE/ FCF Ratio (using current basket prices) of only 2.9, reducing to only 2.1 on 200K PGMs + 2MT Chrome (normalising for cash + trade balance position, it’s less than 2). Even on the former not taking into account increased production, crazy valuation as we all know, particularly when we have 14yrs Open Pit + 40yrs Underground.