RE: WHERE IS THERE BETTER VALUE?22 Mar 2023 07:41
To also correct few items with Sotolo's post:
1) Karo production is now forecast 190k p.a. for 17yrs rather than the 150k over 20yrs+. My "all-in cost" included for Interest and other items, so wouldn't agree on "double counting" this, but we're all estimating anyway. But feel your estimate may be too conservative.
2) Tharisa SA AISC is more like $1,150 based on 2022 Accounts, not sure how you've come up with $1,500 from? With freight costs down, oil prices easing, not too much to estimate 2023 AISC will be close/ similar to 2022.
When you said Rh would fall, this was near 2yrs ago during the semi-conductor crisis and your bearish prediction was proven wrong at that point. You were incredibly bearish predicting less than $2,000, when in fact it bounced back to 15k area. Now we are at $8,400 under completely different circumstances (recession and potential banking crisis escalating), this time round I probably would of course agree short-term $5k is more likely than $20k. However I agree with Mike though that you're being overly bearish when putting Karo start 2H 2024 +17yrs open pit ops into perspective, albeit 2023 is of course going to be very choppy indeed. If like Peter Schiff you're constantly bearish, then of course eventually you'll be proven right! I'll reiterate what I said circa 2yrs ago as you appear to be at full Mr Mannering panic stations over on ADVFN - trim your position if you've over-extended yourself and are overly worried by short-term gyrations or "hurtling" prices.
On one hand you have the current banking crisis, signs of recession, which could dampen demand. On supply side you have SA power cuts that could be significantly impacting underground miners, Nornickel (largest palladium producer in world) lower supply output forecast for 2023, EV demand reducing with subsidies running out and still a complete lack of infrastructure to handle widespread adoption (most positive EV figures include hybrid models, which normally have more PGMs that ICE autos). Lower PGM prices will significantly impact the underground miners who will have to cut production of loss-making shafts or entire mines long before THS.
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