Member Info for ViciousHippo

@jedclampit - that's not what I read - you get shares in Ingenuity if you want them, based on your shareholding currently. Placement is separte issue

Well I'm not expecting a SP increase! The MMs will take this down to get a good price for the placement. I'm guess 45p, but we shall see. After that it might hopefully rise.

They are merely treading water - might see a big move down too! I just don't think their management team is up to it. So focused on creating a lifestyle company for their customers, that they are treating it as a lifestyle company for themselves.

If you are referring to the license that issue that has well covered Goldgeezer. In February they got a three year extension to Coringa. Serabi has been around a long time, and has managed to keep getting licenses renewed. As they employ mostly local workers and are active with the local community (eg funding schools), there is no incentive for the government to mess around with the set up. The last thing the government want is to close a mine and throw a load of poor people on to the unemployment line.

I'm not really understanding this hostility flying around, it is spoiling a useful board on a fascinating share. Serabi is both high risk and low risk. High risk as it is a single mine in Brazil with constant permit limitations. Low risk as it is suddenly operating at such a profit, yet has such a low market cap, it could theoretically buy back all its own shares within an 18 month period (at the current share price of course).

Will they ever learn... Steal, steal, steal.

The seller might decide not to sell any more after this morning's RNS!

Who knows why the seller is selling. Could be for any number of reasons. Mind you a lot of commentators think gold is overbought. That could be the reason. I'm not so sure about that. Gold has defied all the "in a bubble" predictions so far. It may yet continue to do so. It will stop one day, but it might not be now.

To offer an alternative scenario, charts suggest to me this will run to £1.24 by middle of 2025, before a big pull back, possibly as part of a larger stock market correction. Obviously charting is not a crystal ball, but it's an alternative view to consider.

A demerger should mean current shareholders get two sets of shares. It doesn't mean ingenuity will be sold.

Hmmm I think they are desperate to get some fizz in the share price by listing on the main market/ demerging etc. However it's such an uninspiring story. Despite all the investment and effort with the tech automation, they cannot seem to grow their top line. Compare this to popular stocks which are posting 25% revenue increases regularly. THG got used to buying revenue (expensively with other people's money). They still need to prove they can actually grow their sales. The stock IPO was a desperate attempt by the LSE to show the UK has tech companies too. It was overpriced and underperforming, with no sign it will ever do anything.

Goldgeezer - whilst your analysis of the scenarios is reasonable, I disagree that the SP range is 5p - 150p. 5p would imply no value to the business, whereas it is generating cash for 3 years minimum. Unless they spend ALL the cash on exploration, the business will have cash value at a minimum. In my opinion the current SP reflects the reasonable likelihood of substantial cash in the business at the end of 3 years.

Well out of hours price for Anglo is down 9% at $26.29, hence SP for CEY stuck at sub £1.50

I wouldnt be surprised to see this go down to support at 3.6 or even the ATL of 1.5 in the next 24 months. Careful trying to catch a falling knife...

Brief drops trigger stop losses and enables hoovering up of shares on the cheap.

It's currently testing the 200 MDA which is on an upward trajectory. Let's see if it holds over the next couple of days/weeks. I would have thought so. It all depends how worried investors are about the decline in revenue. Personally, from what I'm reading, I expect revenue to stabilise, and profits to grow (slowly). SP should eventually be nearer 50p.

The point is Capita is no longer at risk of survival. It can therefore now be priced not as a zombie, but as a company with a future. That is a big difference.

I would like to re-post my post on earnings day (24 July) after the plunge

The pull back today was a reaction to the slowing revenue. However the EBITDA rescues the situation to my mind, and the revenue will most likely pick up again once the NHS sorts out its budgets again following the Covid distortions. Nothing today leads me away from my numbers that the company should be priced at 12p. I expect the pull back to not last long and the share to climb to 12p where it will hang around.

So far so good. Let's see if it does now go to 12p.

Why is everyone having such a downer on this share. The reason the company is having a hard time, is because they over-recruited during the pandemic. They are not the only ones who've over-recruited since 2020. However, in a way they had no choice. They had to show they could rise to the challenge in a health crisis. Now - like many businesses - it's the clean up phase. At least Totally have an excuse for what the over-recruitment, most companies do not. From here, things should normalise, althugh the NHS is taking an age to sort itself out from the pandemic distortions. But it will.

For a tiny share like Totally this is not an unusual move. If you look on the chart it doesnt even stand out. In the last few months there have been multiple periods when the price has gone down this much and multiple when it has gone up this much. The pull back today was a reaction to the slowing revenue. However the EBITDA rescues the situation to my mind, and the revenue will most likely pick up again once the NHS sorts out its budgets again following the Covid distortions. Nothing today leads me away from my numbers that the company should be priced at 12p. I expect the pull

back to not last long and the share to climb to 12p where it will hang around. Longer term, who knows, it depends on the news from the company. It's a volatile beast!