Member Info for ViciousHippo

I think the worst that can happen is that HMG acts vindictively and the sanctions eventually force the company into liquidation. Assets in NA will be sold off to an American company. Any proceeds will be kept in the sanctioned UK company and not released by the UK government. There is no reason for this doom and gloom scenario, but then again, there is no reason for these sanctions against Evraz.

Whether or not court action is needed depends on whether the sanctions put the group at risk of not being able to trade (I don't think so but not sure - flow of cash in the group and contract payments/ receipts could be a problem) or cause it to default on debt (possibly forcing an involuntary liquidation). I suspect not, but the lawyers will be working on it.

One thing is for sure - you definitely have not lost the North American assets. Even if Evraz remains sanctioned, at some point the NA operations will be put on a normal footing to avoid NA job losses. Those assets would potentially be distributed to you to hold separately from the Russian part. We shall see how this all unfolds

You may be proved right that Evraz is never back on the LSE, but even in that case you still own the considerable assets of Evraz. It's far too early to write off your investment

Evraz NA has the following licence allowing it to conduct business. This is fine, but it implies the UK government have stopped the Russian businesses from conducting business. I'm not sure how UK sanctions stop the subsidiaries operating

GENERAL LICENCE – Continuation of Business of Evraz Plc’s North American Subsidiaries
INT/2022/1710676
1. This licence is granted under regulation 64 of the Russia (Sanctions) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019
(“the Russia Regulations”).
2. Any act which would otherwise breach the prohibitions in Regulations 11 to 17A of the Russia
Regulations is exempt from those prohibitions to the extent required to give effect to the
permissions in this licence.
3. In this licence:
The “North American
Subsidiaries” means
The following subsidiaries of Evraz plc:
Evraz North America plc;
Evraz Inc. NA; and
Evraz Inc. NA – Canada.
a “Person” means An individual, a body of persons corporate or unincorporate, any
organisation or any association or combination of persons.
a “Relevant UK Institution”
means
A person that has permission under Part 4A of the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000(3) (permission to carry on
regulated activity).
A person that is authorised or registered under Part 2 of the
Payment Services Regulations (SI 2017/752).
A person that is authorised or registered under Part 2 of the
Electronic Money Regulations (SI 2011/99).
A person that is a “recognised clearing house”, “third country
central counterparty”, “recognised CSD” or “third country CSD”
for the purposes of s.285 of the Financial Services and Markets
Act 2000.
A person that is an operator of a recognised payment system
(or that is a service provider in relation to recognised payment
systems) for the purposes of Part 5 of the Banking Act 2009.
Permissions
4. Under this licence, subject to the conditions below:
4.1. A Person may continue business operations involving the North American Subsidiaries
including, but not limited to:
4.1.1. Payments to or from the North American Subsidiaries under any obligations or
contracts;
4.1.2. Payments to or from any third party under any obligations or contracts; and
4.1.3. Receipt of payments made by the North American Subsidiaries for audit services.
4.2. Evraz North America plc is permitted to pay for the audit services referred to

My question is to what end have the UK government sanctioned Evraz. It won't stop mines mining or steel works making steel. I cannot really see how the sanctions stop anything the governmemt profess to be the reason for sanctions.

I think taking company private again would be seen as a failure by MM. In any case, the current SP does not affect the group day to day. Unless MM wants to sell his shares - and I am sure he doesnt - why would he fret about it. Amazon share price collapsed just as spectacularly from $110 to $6 soon after it IPO'd. This kind of thing happens regularly in a volatile market.

No.

I agree the signs are for a significant move up. I will stick my neck out and say 50p in under 2 weeks.

Boo has always been a volatile share. 50% swings up and down have not been unusual. We might be on the way to 45p. But then there will be a swing up just as fast. Alternatively we might swing up to 115. Who knows. A crazy share, and I have not yet understood why. It is a solid business with a £1bn turnover, surely the share price shouldnt be such frenzied stabs in the dark.

There has been some debate whether the $30m revenue is to hit the top line, or whether this is gross spend and Bidstack get a percentage of this. Investor relations just confirmed to me as follows;

"The $30m over 2 years is phased to reflect a ramp up and onboarding period (it is not linear).

This $30m will all be reflected in BIDS’ revenue line."

Reading the Cenkos note, it is possible that Bidstack will not require a funding round;

"We previously estimated that this funding round would sufficiently finance the business through
FY21E and FY22E and possibly through the profitability inflection point, depending on the pace
of revenue growth and gross margin achieved. We believe this remains possible despite the cash
looking tight by the end of FY23E"

And

"Bidstack is currently sufficiently capitalised for the short-term to progress the substantial
commercial opportunities it currently has, with the potential for out-performance versus our
forecasts providing further financing head room. Bidstack is now well established, in terms of
its technology platform, growing game publisher title and brand inventory product, and now
increasing revenue generation, as a leading player in the in-game digital advertising industry."

So all good really.

LoopUp are reinventing themselves, and I think the Hybrid environment is a very interesting direction. LoopUp are like a start up in a growing market, but with the benefit they have admin infrastructure and a proven sales force in place. If they can stay profitable while they go through chrysalis, It is a pretty good bet

I agree directors' remuneration looks high for the size of company and lack of profits. They are taking investors' money to pay themselves, which is not ok year after year.

Does MM still have his golden share - he gave that up in October didnt he?

Investor Relations have reportedly told at least a couple of investors who contacted them by phone that they are actively trying to make progress, but it is political. They are in contact with OFSI and FCA and also the UK and US governments. They have also mentioned in a call that they don't know why the shares have been suspended.

Politics is in charge.

In my view MM has two options - abandon the markets by accepting a buy out or proving the markets wrong. Now, knowing his character, what route do you think he will take?

It is also possible WPP is putting this out there to sound out the City before making an offer for THG.

I think his complaint is that organic growth appears to be low/ non-existent, which means it isnt a growing company, at least not the Beauty part. (Note: buying growth through acquisition, when that money has been raised from a placing, does not count as growth - that is a return on equity calculation). Has anyone looked at the underlying growth (ie excl acquisitions)?

There will be a broker that says 60 for sure...

If i could bet against you, I think it will end the day at 97p! But in either case it doesnt matter, because tomorrow will determine what really happens,