Member Info for ViciousHippo

I'm sure HMRC will be arguiing that the facts for THG product line are not exactly the same. They may also say they intend to appeal the judgment and it is too early to think about making repayments. Furthermore, VAT is a charge on the end consumer, not the company and THG may be denied the claim as unjust enrichment. Could drag on for years. What might be interesting is whether THG is applying the exemption to VAT currently on its VAT returns. That will have an immediate impact on their profits, but could also result in a penalty if ultimately it is decided that VAT should apply to THG's products.

What i would say is that management banging on about this claim in their Earnings is likley unjustified as it is likely way off being resolved. It smacks of sales patter rather than sound financial reporting.

Looks like the market is just testing the 200 moving day average. Nothing to get worried about just yet!

Your argument may be reasonable, but VAT is applied based on the law that has been enacted by Parliament, and that cannot be massaged by a court to fit a social benefit. That would be political. The only thing a court has power to do is decide how the law is applied to the facts of a particular case.

@Dangermouse Earnings of $46m falls just short of your predicted $50m. Not sure why, probably additional exploration costs?

Ideally for the long term it would retrace to 96p. If it does load the boat as we will be off to the races. However i suspect this is not. We shall see

@darian. If this a reference to the coringa licence, I would reiterate that the Palito licence is indefinite. Palito on its own is still an excellent earner, enough to justify the current market cap. This means the coringa situation is only upside

Assume no license for Coringa in 18 months from now: 50,000oz pa at $4000 gold price less AISC at $1600 for 18 months = $200,000,000 which is the current market cap.

You get Palito at 30000oz per year for free, and if the license comes through (either extension or full license) it's champagne time

Pull backs happen mostly due to investor sentiment. However there are not many investors in this market yet. It seems to be mainly driven by central banks who aren't sentiment driven. Therefore pull backs aren't necessarily going to happen. That will change once investors come on board.

Just to clarify on the license, that only applies to the coringa mine. Palito has an indefinite license. At these gold prices palito is worth a lot own

It is unfair to blame HMRC for having to enforce stupid rules dreamed up by MPs. HMRC did not make the rule about "luxury" food being subject to VAT. That was the lawmakers, ie parliament. And we voted them in, so it is our fault!

Let's hope. Alternatively it retests 23p...

NEDs dont do a lot. Some oversight and some ideas. Not really a big effect either way in my opinion

SRB runs itself like a big miner. Health and safety, community projects, environmentally aware etc. In the short term this is bad for profits. In the long term it's good. Long way to go.

Sounds terrible, I agree, but the export of goods is not the main driver of GDP in the EU. So goods exported to the US still only represents 2.7% of total EU GDP. That looks a lot less frightening. It's unhelpful, not a game changer. The real problem the EU has (as do we) is government spending out of control. And government spending is generally considered to be less efficient than private sector spending. This means the loss of GDP due to tariffs could be solved by reducing government spending. There is however not a single politician on the planet calling for that. So we are stuck with ever reducing return on national capital.

Exports to the US account for around 2.5% of EU GDP. Obvioulsy losing, say, 1% of GDP is unhelpful, it does still seem to me that the whole tarriff thing might be a big fuss over not a lot.

Ryan - i am really trying to compare fundamentally good companies with those that are fundamentally bad. There is almost certainly no company on AIM that is fundamentally as good as the top companies in the world. So why invest in AIM at all. That is my point really. Luckily I learned my lesson in time to make the money I have lost on THG back with Palantir. I got interested in Palantir when I saw the BMA was protesting that the NHS was using it. I thought - what's that about and if the BMA are protesting, it must be good for the NHS! :) Unfortunately I didnt buy it at $6, but mid twenties, but it has done very well. Unlike this nightmare.

I am not directly comparing THG to Amazon - that wasnt the point at all. I am making the point that US investors have absolutely no reason to buy THG as suggested by the title of this post. Literally any S&P500 company is better than THG, I just picked Amazon as an example. But feel free to substitute any of Nvidea, Microsoft, Meta, Eli Lily, Visa, Netflix etc etc. They are all far better investments than THG. That is why US investors wont be buying THG. Ever. You dont even need to buy something as awful as THG with the hope that management are replaced by people who can sell, not just spend, for a multibagger. On the S&P you can do that with all sorts of shares that are brilliant companies, eg Palantir. For $6 to $140 in three years. THG can NEVER do that, because it isnt fundamentallhy as good. So, the question is, why invest in a fundamentally inferior company at all? ps that is the trap I have fallen into here and I regret every pound I have wasted on THG! I am just passing on the lesson I have learned!

Why would US buyers even look at THG when they have dozens of world class leaders. Why buy a struggling plankton when you can buy fast growing market leading whale. Amazon or THG, I wonder what's the smarter investment...

Why buy a lousy company when you can buy the best company in the world instead. Think about that one...

I would note that the share price has broken out from a five year down trend (on a log scale). That is significant and gives a lot of hope. Certainly not a bad thing!

I admire the optimism on this board for share buy backs. We are talkimng years into the future, and that is only if they get some decent management in place who can turn things around, and actually grow the business, rather than docus on DEI, charity events and rebranding. This is all marketing, which is the sign of a lazy management bereft of ideas. They need management who can increase sales. Only then will everything look positive.