Member Info for viable

(courtesy of ADVFN . . . well, that answers a question)

Country: United_kingdom. Ticker: PAF.LSE

Summary for all available positions:

Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership lost -1.59 million GBX (full history)

Marshall Wace Llp lost -0.95 million GBX (full history)

Total sum: 2.54 million GBX lost in 14 positions.

De latest short....Loss

025-07-07 2025-08-02 (ongoing) 0.9 48.90 55.50

Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership -120.42 M GBX

PAF probably finished quite strongly because of positive news coming out of Fairview / Sheba underground roundup and Eskom finding its way blocked. I added for the final time on strength of info from a Jhb colleague but make no predictions for Y26. I might do so if Nobles Nob takes off in style.

"The Group will be unhedged from 1 July 2025, following the expiry of the last zero cost collars at the end of June 2025," as someone asked.

(I agree with views at 21:59 and regard RNS on 11 June 2025 as current indicator.)

"Yes, in H1 production was 84,705oz while sales were only 79,926 oz. For H2 I have assumed that sales will be 3,000 oz above production."

Unless it was adjusted I alter your figure to "Production for FY25 is estimated at approximately 197,000oz (FY24: 186,039oz), an increase of approximately 6% from the prior financial year" . . . which brightens the scene. Or am I mixing up your financial year periods ?

@ 20:09 Certainly food for thought and enough to dampen spirits to a degree. You may well be close to the mark on your calculations but I am hoping the hedge trimmer is not quite as onerous. $17.8m (estimated) is a hefty slice and if correct I look for some catalyst to ease any potential predicament. That catalyst may not emanate from TCMG before 2026 and I have reasoned that Allan Gray, PIC, etc would have made a forensic study of the subject before embarking on some heavy involvement.

Either way I allocated 40% of sector holding to MTL/La India to spread risk.

I forgot to include the following link several weeks ago. Allan Gray is a weighty operator in SA. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pan-african-resources-plc-lon-074804922.html and Cobus pays attention to the insti needs. PIC of course have upped their stake to 13+%.

. . . would also like to add a piece about Fairview / Sheba but am confident CL will be updating on Barberton plus Barkly, NT, within days. I forget length of hedge arrangement but think it has ended.

Good to see loyalists are starting to see fruits after 14 years. I jumped ship @ 36p but now believe there is a way forward.

Bretana = 603,205 . . . LosAngeles = 18,842 barrels (both need to get a move on)

I had planned to ease input but a couple of developments need pumping:

a) Xi may launch his Taiwan offensive in September creating more volatility

b) Zama Zamas are a headache, and always have been. Loots promised to address the Barberton issue . . . https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/59960-pan-african-calls-time-on-rampant-gold-theft-at-sheba-mine/

The SAP have at last gone on the offensive . . . https://www.dw.com/en/south-africa-detains-1000-foreign-illegal-miners/a-73506954

Largely owing to (a) I plan to add during the week especially if PAF also finally get to grips with the ZamaZanas at Sheba.

. . . a remarkable afternoon leading to yesterday's close. I cannot recall a similar $70+ increase to the gold price in so short a time. Had accepted probability of a long wait for return to $3,400. Should be an interesting week ahead.

Yes, you are right. I realised the error after posting. Perhaps a good time to keep quiet until gold recovers to its high: https://www.metalsdaily.com/charts/gold/

Https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2025/07/25/tennant-minerals-ceo-steps-down-transitioning-to-consultancy-role/

. . . watching everything as Cobus Loots has mentioned Cu in comments.

Some trades can be managed inhouse exchanges.

. . . will be easing off short-term with the blarney. Although tempted to go in deeper here and SA PGMs a time comes to exercise prudence until commodities settle down: https://www.metalsdaily.com/charts/platinum/ (watch all categories)

Perhaps NT will be the next catalyst: https://territorycoordinator.nt.gov.au/news-and-insights/nt-gold-sector-expands-as-nobles-nob-reopens

Yes again, after closer examination I am very glad not to have been sucked into GGP. Those gram yields barely equate to the Krugersdorp slime dams and less than the dumps, the contents there merely being trucked to CIL plant. And furthermore Nobles Nob / Bluebird, NT, is almost certainly going to offer more than anything measured at Havieron / Telfer. The Arrow change % was misleading in that it showed yesterday's date/

Overall it is another lesson in remaining watchful. Forward projections on gold are mixed but H2 2026 suggests a $4,000 expectation. Wrt PAF Au @ $3,400 should keep us satisfied.

"AISC to surge to between AU$2,400 and AU$2,800/oz" for 2026 screwed everyone . . . and Arrow somehow got a preview. In sum, a real shock but Au should attain US$4,000/oz end-2026 or close to it.

. . . large after-hours trade.

I continue to learn. Have focused on the GGP mystery without finding answers. Notable that Arrow heavily increased their existing short yesterday before quarterly production update was issued this morning. Nothing is assured in this casino.

I can't find any solid reason for torpedoing GGP by 22% unless AISC is at the root of it. (Do Arrow have a private line to both companies ?)

Having read Craig M's (VAL) comments https://www.lse.co.uk/news/valterra-platinums-half-year-profit-plunges-81-on-lower-sales-ut0d1rm4ux5subp.html

I looked for Karo's latest status https://www.karomining.com/construction.php and conclude we could do with an update. Basket prices are better although PGM pricing is currently flaky. https://www.metalsdaily.com/charts/platinum/

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/how-south-african-gold-miners-are-navigating-opportunities-challenges-amid-a-high-gold-price-environment-2025-07-25

a) significant paragraphs on PAF's role in overall Witwatersrand decline

b) average trade value on JSE = £1,700+ suggesting meaningful shift to surface ops from traditional deep shaft investment

c) ~300k ozs pa on the horizon

d) will PAF be offered a stake in Bluebird East, NT ?

(sic) "cannot match them"

JSE volume today = 8,373,714 (down on yesterday's 15m

. . . seems to have been an iffy day but upbeat later on. Would like to add again but need to stay rooted at La India as well. Unless more a.m. manipulation ensues retail investors should not be gulled into surrendering their holdings. Bear in mind PAF is a mid-tier co and instis are out to grab what they can. If DRD can trade @ $13 there is no reason we can match them at some point.