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This from Henry at Yellow Jersey today:
"Just for your interest as you weren’t able to attend, please find below a link to the recording of Ariana’s presentation at Mines and Money last week. Please feel free to share this further if you wish."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAux0z-3a1I
I have to say I agree with your well expressed comments John.
This is what I just posted on ADVFN which is along the same lines.
"A 23% drop in the target price by the House Broker makes you ask whose side are they on. I’ve always tried to defend them but I’m shocked by this apparent kick in the teeth for Kerim and the Co. They seem to be saying the Transaction, as it was known, was capital dilutive, notwithstanding all the very positive announcements made since their last Note. I have to say I agree with the sentiment and the questions asked, namely what the F are we paying for?"
Do you mean this one John!
Will our attendance at Mines & Money generate any interest or is it just going through the motions talking to the same old bored audience? If I was them I would consider the recent price action an embarrassment and clear evidence of an underlying failure to communicate effectively. Not helped having Kerim now as a faceless CEO tucked away on the other side of the planet. Pull your finger out guys.
I hope he won't mind me copying it across but I thought it was worth sharing;
this is a quality collaboration with Pallas, looks like they have a really strong team on board, fascinating to see this, when you look at our board compared to those we are investing in, just confirms to me how lucky we are to have who we have steering this ship, reiterating the point of having the right people in the right places. Another IPO on the way, how many is that now, 3 I believe. Building strong foundations with huge future growth potential through shrewd, calculated investments. This model is making more and more sense by the week.
The last "o" was overweight.
I'm expecting a nice flow a news from Ariana over the next few months and at some stage I expect gold to responded positively to inflationary pressures and possibly more Q.E. Stateside.
Then there is Basel 111 which should have an influence but will probably be another wet fish!
We'll see.
Nice to read you are wondering where I am! Yes I do tend to post more often on ADVFN these days under the handle playsbryn. I've been to France in my Camper Van for a month, so not been as active as well.
But what is my current view on Ariana?
Well nothing has changed that much, in fact we've had a nice row of RNS's. In particular I liked:-
1. Drilling commenced at Tavsan and Salinbas. I'm excited by Salinbas. It is of course fully funded by Ozaltin to Full Feasibility Study status ( $8m)
2. EIA approval for Tavsan. I'm hoping the second mine will be up and running in around 12 months.
3. Lots going on in Cyprus. I would see these assets monetised at some point.
4. An interest taken in Panther Metals.
5. Process plant expansion at Kiziltepe completed. Increased through put.
6. Most significant drill campaign to date at Kiziltepe complete, which will lead importantly to a new increase Resource and extended Life of Mine.
7. A new Panmure Gordon Note has been promised. I expect this once the Kiziltepe new Resource and extend Life of Mine (optimisation Study) is announced. That is near term in my opinion.
We obviously still have lots of cash on the balance sheet and we have de-risked by broadening the focus away from Turkey.
Yet the value of the Co. is still where it was say 18 months ago and well lower that at it's peak. That obviously must give investors a lot of reassurance that this Co. represents good value. With dilution from Placements a thing of the past and two nice dividends scheduled for 2022, it is easy to be pretty laid back and not lose any sleep over the current share price weakness imo. In fact this is probably a very good time to be adding.
But do I have any criticisms? Well yes. First the refusal to provide a Gantt chart to help existing and new investors see the range and timing of all the projects remains a constant annoyance to me. As it does with others I know.
Then there is the Board structure. It is too small. Basically it is Kerim. He has 2 part timers and a Chairman. And he has cut off direct contact with investors. This has to now go through Henry at Yellow Jersey. He needs to recruit a Business Development Director /Investor Relations person with responsibility for communicating the story to the City, to Institutional Investors, and to the Press. We need a Non Executive Director to protect our interests. Being based in Australia, when most of the business is in Europe with no key Director here, is not appropriate imo. Kerim is still trying to keep it as his baby and I believe we are well past that now.
Communication is still poor and often lacks strategic input and and sense of what the future vision is. The Board have been made well aware of shareholder's reservations yet choose to do nothing about it.
This remains a Co. under the radar which is honestly run and with great potential in my opinion. Whilst it continues to pay me a nice dividend, with good upside potential as well, I'm very happy to remain o
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/11/18/eroton-seals-750m-financing-deal-with-afreximbank/
Might be of interest. Bit of background to Hellenic Copper Mines Ltd.,Ariana of course involved via Venus Minerals.Heads of Agreement by mid Nov. for the development of a fully permitted Apliki Copper Mine (10.4mt @ 0.34 Cu) Fast track project to mining stage in 18 months following London IPO by end of year.AAU to earn in to 50% of Venus by early Q4.http://hcm.com.cy/site/about-hcm
https://www.venusminerals.co/media/attachments/2019/12/02/venus-presentation-nov19-.pdf
The world risks “running out of copper” amid widening supply and demand deficits, according to Bank of America, and prices could hit $20,000 per metric ton by 2025.
In a note Tuesday, Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer highlighted inventories measured in tons are now at levels seen 15 years ago, implying that stocks currently cover just over three weeks of demand. This comes as the global economy is beginning to open up and reflate.
By the way I was ecstatic to hear they had finally secured the E.I.A. to proceed with our second mine at Tavsan.
Tavsan has mega financials. It is rare to come across one so good. The Scoping Study gave us cash/costs of $630/oz. A global resource of 4mt@1.3G/t Au & 4.5G/tAg. A NP
V of $42m. But the world class numbers were the IRR at 80% and a payback in just 1.1 years on just $20m of initial capital. These figures are no doubt conservative as Kerim has said there will be a new Resource and the Life of Mine will double from 4 years to probably 8 yrs plus. I look forward to hearing what PG make of all this. As said I hope they wait for the new Reserve and extended Life of Mine.
I think the updated Panmure Gordon Analyst Note will be a bit of a bombshell, as their updated valuation will, I reckon, take new and existing investors by surprise.
I hope they wait now for the following:
1. Revised Kiziltepe Resource estimate and extended Life of Mine
2. Final Kepez Reserve
3. Revised Tavsan Reserve and extended Life of Mine.
4. Perhaps even first drill results from "huge" Salinbas.
There's lots of other news due of course, but these four are potentially real "game changers" in my opinion, and could all be out to the market before Christmas. So I'm predicting a Panmure Gordon Note well into December and a share price north of 7p. Just my view, but one that excites me.
I'm quite encouraged by all the potentially accretive news building up in the relative short term. Could all this happen by end of 2021?
1. Kiziltepe: Drill programme leading to new resource leading to an extended life of mine.
2. Tavsan: One last drill programme after Kiziltepe complete to confirm Reserve. E.I.A. permit, final land purchases (35%) and Finance approval.
3. Salinbas: Drill programme to commence after Tavsan. Michael said it was "Huge" yesterday. Straight to Full Feasibility Study
4. Cyprus: Definitive Agreement by mid Nov.on 50/50 JV to develop Aplike & Venus IPO by end of year.
5. Eastern Europe: Ongoing
6. Asgard Metals Fund: Ongoing - IPO of Panther Australia before end of year.
7. Panmure Gordon Broker note.
8. Second dividend by end of March 2022.
A few biggies in short order, could potentially gives us the impetus we need to get a proper re-rate. Perhaps Panmure Gordon will be able to reflect the value of the above into a sensible price target.
I hear Tom Winnifrith published comment yesterday saying the concluded Aplike Agreement could be the catalyst to see the shares back above 6p. But there is so much more than just Cyprus as listed above. Perhaps it is time to get excited especially given the current share price disconnect.
Perhaps Mentor Demi, Kosovo, Western Tethyan Resources and Peter Van Deborgh should be on the Ariana board. They are increasingly playing a key role in the developing strategy. Not sure why Kerim doesn’t give them more profile.
Pay day guys & girls. Some are reinvesting their dividend and that is driving the price higher today. Apparently Charles Stanley, II and IG have already credited their clients. In fact IG did it at 8.15!
Others haven't.
This means many are disadvantaged and will have to pay higher prices to re-invest.
I would suggest you should complain to your broker and you will have suffered financial loss which is a serious issue.
Biggles on ADVFN who has a noticeable interest (over 3%) hasn't had his. He must be fuming.
The Co. have done well to keep a lid on news and keep the share price low, but once everyone has had a chance to reinvest their dividends I hope they let the news roll big time.
The Director's bought shares about a month ago which meant we were in a "closed" period for news. I believe we are now out of the "closed" period, and I'm confident there is a lot of important news to flow.
1. Salinbas drilling started in September
2. Results from Cyprus - should be good. Due early Q4?
3. Tavsan E.I.A. permit - overdue & Covid delayed, but Govt. Dept's getting back to normal now.
4. Kosovo & Eastern Europe update/plans
5. Exploration & Development plans
6. Improved production at Kiziltepe as a result of new Ball Mill and higher grade feed material etc.
7. Possible Hizarliyayla drilling to start before Christmas - Kerim said this in a Q& A back in June. That really excites me.
So lots of news, pay-out stimulating reinvestment and perhaps positive momentum & gold hardening hopefully all running up to Christmas.
Hi John,
Dying to know which Co has been drawing your attention? Will understand if you prefer not to say.
Incidentally, I'm still in touch with Mr Pizza Express No. 3 namely Paul. He posts from time to time on ADVFN and remains a strong supporter of Ariana,
Apparently there is a Nigel Somerville note out. Anyone seen it?
I've read that Gold & Silver are on the cusps of a strong positive run based on momentum analysis. Let's hope that is the case.