Member Info for VanVan

Ex on 14th March. Payable 29th March

A lot of commentators are bullish on gold but even more so on silver.
They suggest too much global debt could eventually lead to a currency crisis and a run to gold & silver.
In fact we are already seeing Central Banks starting to buy.
Just thinking how things could develop over the next few years if we see a gold & silver correction.
If we produce say 250,000 ozs plus of silver at $15 (£11.5) its only £2.8m of revenue.
But if the price went over the next couple of years to say $45 (£36) that would deliver £9m.
If gold also recovered to say its previous high of $1900 (£1460) and we produce 25,000 ozs that would be £36m
Add in Tavsan and another 30,000 ozs and that gives £44m.
Total J.V. revenue of nearly £90m.
Note this is revenue not profit. But fag package stuff, lets say 50% margin and we are looking at £45m p.a.
EPS of circa 0.0428p. Just five times earnings would suggest a S.P. of 21p taking no account of the E&D assets.
Five times earnings in a bull market is probably very conservative.
Am I being silly or perhaps my projections are false?

Fair comment John. We certainly don’t want them to get it wrong.
I hope it contains a bit more info. so the wait is worth it.

The upside or downside numbers aren’t miles apart and they have over 18 months of production actuals, so it does seem a bit odd that we have to wait till mid March (nearly the end of a whole quarter) before they commit to a number. Is this another example of Kerim’s ultra cautious approach. Still not long to wait now.

It was great to hear JP discuss the LC numbers.
On 200 tonnes per month he said we are looking at $6m after tax.
($0.5m per month).
Plus Cobre with revenue of $2.75m per annum and costs of $1.2m.
So circa $7.55m pa after tax or £5.8m
On LC he said the costs were fixed at circa 50% based on Copper at $6100 per tonne. So is that $7.3m pa?
If copper increases in price the leverage aspect comes into play. He quoted a figure based on a $500 Copper price uplift of $60000 per month I believe. But I can’t understand that number.
Anyway I reckon we are looking at somewhere between 4.5p and 5p based on EPS by early next year, discounting any value for Redmoor. Anyone care to comment please?

Thanks John.
You are probably right!
What about silver? We are a silver mine with gold!

Taken from the 12th March 2018 Guidance RNS.
Highlights:



· Gold production guidance for 2018 from Kiziltepe is c. 20,000 oz Au*, a c. 47% increase on an annualised basis (2017: 10,191 oz Au), and c. 21% above feasibility plan for the second year of operations.

· The mine plan forecasts monthly production of ore between 15,500 tonnes and 17,000 tonnes during the year, increasing during Q2 and Q3 2018.

· Ore throughput to the mill during 2018 is expected at c. 180,000 tonnes, which represents a 20% increase over the feasibility plan.

· Average grade of gold expected to be processed during the year will be c. 4 g/t Au and gold recovery is expected to exceed 90%.

· Open-pit mining will continue to focus on the Arzu South pit during 2018, with preparations being made to commence mining on satellite pits from early 2019.

Anyone fancy guessing the guidance numbers ahead of this years RNS?
I go for Gold 30,000 ozs and Silver 350,000 ozs

Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) Disclosure

Certain information contained in this announcement would have been deemed inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 until the release of this announcement.

14 January 2019

Strategic Minerals plc

("Strategic Minerals", "SML" or the "Company")

Early Extension of Cobre Access

Strategic Minerals plc (AIM: SML; USOTC: SMCDY), a producing mineral company actively developing projects prospective for battery materials, is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Southern Minerals Group ("SMG") has successfully obtained an early rollover of access to the Cobre magnetite stockpile. Contracts exchanged provide for the access to be extended until 31 March 2020. Annual access will automatically rollover on 31 March each year thereafter (the "rollover date"), unless written notice is provided not less than one month prior to the rollover date.

Commenting, John Peters, Managing Director, Strategic Minerals said:
"The early rollover of access to the Cobre magnetite stockpile is a testament to the close working relationship SMG, and its President Clovis Hooper, has with the mine manager and their faith in the quality of the operational and safety procedures conducted by SMG.

While the Company considers that access to the Cobre magnetite stockpile will continue to be provided until exhausted (6+ years), this early rollover is strategically significant for the Company as it ensures access to positive cash flows while it prepares to commence its second income stream from Leigh Creek Copper Mine.

I look forward to providing the quarterly sales update later this week."

It trades on the NEX market with the EPIC AAU.GB

John there were trades on the secondary Ariana market yesterday - AAU.GB. Have you looked there?

Let’s hope that brings in some US/Canadian Investors.

I apologise. I had no idea it was a locked account - private profile.
One of the tweets was about the Turkish delegation at PDAC 2019 in Toronto, which as we know, Ariana attended. Kerim presented on behalf of the Turkish Gold Miners Association. The Turkish booth was aimed at welcoming interest in Turkish mining and investment. Michael said it looked very smart. The Deputy Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey, HE Mithat Cansiz introduced Turkey to investors.
The other tweet by Michael was a photograph of Ariana Red Rabbit mine's new 30 tonne haulage trucks. These apparently replaced the older 20 tonne fleet. As someone pointed out to me, this might be linked to the better, newly built roads, obviously improving mine efficiency. Sorry for the confusion.

Michael de Villiers on twitter this morning

Dr. Kerim Sener, presenting on behalf of the Turkish Gold Miners Association at PDAC, Toronto #AAU #PDAC2019 @InvestTurkey

I think you are right John, this is a 1m oz Reserve target for Kiziltepe even though Kizilcukur isn’t currently part of Kiziltepe as it is owned 100% by us.

Apart from the trucking cost. 1m oz target compared to say 30,000 oz pa output, gives us a very acceptable life of mine. And this is just one of the satellites apart from Kiziltepe itself.
Ok a second Ball Mill could get us to 50,000 ozs but still small beer compared to the output.
How much is a 1m oz reserve worth. I would say at least £20m which is about our current Market Cap.
Surely investors are going to wake up to the intrinsic value here soon!

As you have said in the past John well done to Kerim for not selling this asset at 3 times exploration costs. Got to be worth a whole lot more.

Watch Zack Van Coller, of Ariana Resources Exploration Team Leader, provide an onsite video update from Kizilcukur where the team is currently drilling to further understand the geology of the area.

Https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5c756fbc4bfa360ce16bd426/ariana-resources-kizilcukur-drilling-update

At least we don’t appear to have been caught up in this debacle. Lots of AIM companies hit on Friday.
A re-run of Beaufort from a year ago!!
Will we get “guidance” numbers next week or perhaps mid March?
I thought Michael did a great interview. It’s normally always Kerim, but good to get a different style occasionally. He presented a very compelling case and good to hear we are generating interest. The Hot Maden effect !!

Subject: Jim Willie: Gold & Silver Prices To Get ENORMOUS LIFT As 3 Factors Finally Ending The Suppression | Silver Doctors

https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/jim-willie-internal-external-systemic-factors-to-end-gold-silver-price-suppression/