Member Info for Van2000

I get the reason behind FAR investing in the potential for the higher margin carbon black but realistically what’s the chances of big tyre manufacturers taking this non standard product. For me I’m assuming this won’t progress (and basing my figures on lower price per tonne) however the carbon for smelting at £350 per tonne will generate turnover of $70m. I’ve also assumed there will be no other bi product apart from uranium and obviously vanadium which brings a total turnover of circa $150m, fcf of circa $90. This is all immaterial as everything hinges on profitability of the pilot plant which Nick Bridgen has continuously failed to deliver on, regardless of how much capital investment has been thrown at it. Phase 1 is probably going to require $150m investment and good terms will be based on using the FCF funds from the pilot plant. So many uncertainties currently and with all the inconsistencies with Nick Bridgen I feel he has lost credibility. What is very bizarre is the FS has been delayed a further 6 months when the recent fund raise was required not to delay the FS. My thoughts behind this is that they knew the FS was going to be delayed and the funds are being used in conjunction to funding the pilot plant even further as it’s still loss making. The Things could be worse, the vanadium price could be in decline!

Bridgen will announce further delays in terms of the existing plant, supply chain issues will be the reason for the plant not being profitable. For me the current operational plant generating free cash flow is paramount otherwise further shareholder dilution will occur.

Aimgambler, stick to the gambling

A glance at the cash flow statement and last financial rns issued by the company shows there is very little cash left based on historic burn rate

Michael Taylor posted last week that he has a short position open as the company will be needing a fund raise soon

NB has history of talking up opportunities (not just with FAR) for example rare earth materials was expected to hugely contribute to the company’s revenue but has been knocked on the head. I have detailed some current pros and cons of the stock: Pros – 1) Vanadium resource is there and it is very likely this will be confirmed in the drilling results next year. 2) Infrastructure is there (requiring low capital expenditure for a mining project). 3) Skilled workforce are in place. 4) Operating costs are extremely low, based on the type of resource being mined (by products will help this cost reduction further – I see the by-product as a potential risk now as the expectation was there was significant viable by-products). Cons – 1) The company is currently loss making and will require an injection of capital (I estimate share dilution will take place in the next 4 months). 2) Carbon Black substitute will require collaboration with numerous potential customers which need to trial the product which isn’t proven (this is a big uncertainty but obviously if successful will be hugely beneficial to FAR). 3) Directors still holding large volumes of stock (Christopher Thomas purchased circa £160k on 15th March 2021 at an average price of 14p)

For transparency I sold my position a few months ago and now have a large short position which has been open at 16.5p. I will look to reverse my trade when the share dilution takes place (my estimate is around October/November). With the hope that the new injection of funding will help push the company to be more efficient in their operations and produce positive free cash flow by mid 2023. If FAR manages to produce free cash flow of anything over $7million then funding for the larger plant will proceed on favourable terms to shareholders. I believe that if Sir Mick Davies goes ahead with the phase 2 mine then NB and A Kuznetsov will be replaced in 2024.

I haven’t mentioned any macro events that are a potential risk, such as recession, political risk and Vanadium price etc. But with the extra funding being used wisely, FAR should be able to weather any recessionary downturn, with the expectation that we will be out of recession in 2023.

Jammey, FAR has a 1 in 20 chance of being a billion $ market cap company, invest what you are prepared to lose

Best of luck with the investment but expect the share price to fall further before it improves

Its clear there's a placing coming, I was thinking it was going to be at 15p but that has clearly been blown out of the water, now likely to be 10p

There’s a cash call coming in H2, 15p is my reckoning

Sold my 80,000 shares yesterday, too much uncertainty around current operations. Coupled with the fact that we are heading into a recession and with FAR providing no significant cash flow for at least 3 years. Also the business will have been impacted by the Russian invasion in terms of sourcing vanadium concentrate.

https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/invinity_0.8mwh_vanadium_flow_battery_system_installed_in_scottish_water_so

I have the following time line (excluding the expected news in Q1 2022):

1) Drilling of ore bodies 2-5: Results expected mid 2022
2) Arranging of Financial backing: Completed Q1 2023 (circa 6 months)
3) Building of plant: Completed Mid to late 2024 (circa 18 months)

3 nice chunky buy trades at the end of the day, feeling flush Pollack!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.scotsman.com/business/oilexco-chief-named-iraq-oil-food-scandal-2469840%3famp

Can anyone shed any light as to the reasons why AM's North Sea company went into administration? and was the company sitting on a significant amount of reserves at the time?

Major Shareholders:

Andrey Kuznetsov 68.5m 20.00%
Ferro Alloy Reources Ltd 55.9m 15.70%
Nicholas John Bridgen 59.7m 14.50%
Christopher Thomas 5.7m 1.50%
James Turian 445k 0.13%
Total 51.83%

Interesting short video. Second half giving some detail about Kazakhstan risks and the positives of investing in the country https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/970639/east-star-resources-could-emulate-gold-exploration-industry-in-western-australia-fifty-years-ago-970639.html

The game changer for Ferro Alloy Resources will be the results regarding the samples of Carbon black. These are highly likely to come back showing high service area particles which will command a price in the region of $1,000 per tonne.