Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Asat I’ve looked back at your posts, a fund raise in March / April is nonsense, it’s more likely to be August, with cash run out being Feb 2025 and with no upfront payment for m3 starting soon. The last 3 fund raises by destiny have been 6 months prior to cash depletion.
Unfortunately investors have been suckered into this investment on the hype of the last 6 months, mainly based on the appointment of Rudd and Tovey and the uber expectation of XF-73.
Where’s the resident rumour announcer Sajy gone? Just look back at his past posts on Dest…shameful.
Brooko19, Good grief you are more thick than I thought. 25% from the news being released doesn’t mean a 45% from the price I purchased.
Let’s wait and see in 3 months time where the share price is, you seem to forget it takes 2 to make a market.
I’m looking to sell asap, having bought at 52p. NIAID results will be positive, I’m expecting a 25% uplift (when news is released) in the share price at which point I will sell.
I don’t see any partnership deal in the near term so anticipate the price will retrace after these results. May even take a short out if it spikes hugely in the next few days on the results.
There does seem to be some blatant ramping here, don’t get me wrong there are many positives but the risks don’t get identified. I can only assume these investors haven’t done their due diligence. Factors below are important to highlight in order to provide a balanced opinion:
Destiny have been in talks for over a year now for a partnership for XF-73. The business model is completely different to other medicines being developed, in that XF-73 is prescribed as a short term need for an ailment whereas for example medicines by GW pharmaceuticals are prescribed for long term ailments, eg 10 years plus and can generate £15000 per annum per patient for the company. Once you have this business it’s unlikely to be lost unless cheaper alternatives are developed.
It’s this that is the stumbling block for the partnership. This is echoed by the fact that destiny are paying Susan Koppy a 6 figure salary, appointed 6 months ago to push a partnership deal over the line. Also destiny spent a significant amount of money to conduct further market analysis to make the market more appealing to partners, raising from this $1 to $2 billion. A little odd that you don’t accurately know your market size prior to developing a product.
Also it’s important to highlight that destiny purchased NTCD-M3 to diversify their portfolio. My thoughts on this is that if you are confident in your platform (XF-73), focus all your efforts and resources on this, particularly as M3 hasn’t turned out to be as lucrative as initially thought.
Also talks of a takeover soon is just ridiculous. Until destiny has 1 or 2 xf-73 products on the market this is highly unlikely. So at least another 3 years.
Last research I could see on an upfront payment for XF-73 was predicted to be $10m.
Pro investor- previous fund raises by destiny have occurred with 6 months of cash left, so based on cash run out being Feb 2025 they would raise in August next year.
In my opinion, the closer they get to August with no deal, the more nervous investors will be, which will result in a share price decline. If no deal is done by March of next year, then this will certainly be the case.
I’m assuming this 2034 date includes a few years of decommissioning as the remaining recoverable copper is 111,600 tonnes (taken from the CAML website) this equates to less than 8 years mine life. Unless this is an incorrect resource estimate?
With regard to DP’s previous fund raises, they have been 6 months prior to cash depletion. So I estimate without a deal being down, the next raise will be circa August 2024.
If there is no deal for XF-73 by Feb next year, due to inherent delays in the pharma industry, then investors will be getting nervous and the share price will weaken (my opinion).
On the flip side, if a deal is done with significant upfront payment then the price will rerate significantly.
Challenging market conditions with relatively high interest rates and lack of investment appetite for Uk pharma is the challenge to the deal, as all trial data is positive. But with CT’s many business contacts he may pull a rabbit out.
We should be receiving the half year results next Friday. Based on the supply issues there will be another financial loss. Coupled with the BFS running into next year there will be another fund raise soon. Will decide on the next rns whether to sell up or continue to hold. Tricky as one needs to decipher NBs comments, as much of what he says can’t be taken at face value.
Definite fund raise coming, my thought is in October.
They made a significant loss in 2022 on $6m turnover ($4m loss) with the expectation for an operational profit of 20%.
Unfortunately the pilot plant will never profitable, regardless of logistic costs having come down. Expect a significant discounted fund raise in the coming months.
I’ve looked at the financials in some detail and have come to the conclusion that based on current relevant commodity prices to FAR:
Phase 1 £75m fcf. With 40% of this being paid as dividends (£30m). Based on 1,000,000,000 shares outstanding this equates to 30p share price, providing a 10% div yield.
Phase 2 being x 4 so £300m fcf and £120m paid out in dividends. Share price being 120p.
This assumes that there are no further share issues apart from the dilution for the plant build. With phase 1 profits being used for the phase 2 build I can’t see the stock price rising substantially in the short term.