Member Info for Van2000

There does seem to be some blatant ramping here, don’t get me wrong there are many positives but the risks don’t get identified. I can only assume these investors haven’t done their due diligence. Factors below are important to highlight in order to provide a balanced opinion:

Destiny have been in talks for over a year now for a partnership for XF-73. The business model is completely different to other medicines being developed, in that XF-73 is prescribed as a short term need for an ailment whereas for example medicines by GW pharmaceuticals are prescribed for long term ailments, eg 10 years plus and can generate £15000 per annum per patient for the company. Once you have this business it’s unlikely to be lost unless cheaper alternatives are developed.

It’s this that is the stumbling block for the partnership. This is echoed by the fact that destiny are paying Susan Koppy a 6 figure salary, appointed 6 months ago to push a partnership deal over the line. Also destiny spent a significant amount of money to conduct further market analysis to make the market more appealing to partners, raising from this $1 to $2 billion. A little odd that you don’t accurately know your market size prior to developing a product.

Also it’s important to highlight that destiny purchased NTCD-M3 to diversify their portfolio. My thoughts on this is that if you are confident in your platform (XF-73), focus all your efforts and resources on this, particularly as M3 hasn’t turned out to be as lucrative as initially thought.

Also talks of a takeover soon is just ridiculous. Until destiny has 1 or 2 xf-73 products on the market this is highly unlikely. So at least another 3 years.

Last research I could see on an upfront payment for XF-73 was predicted to be $10m.

Sajy have you heard any more gossip down the pub regarding partnership!?

*************destinypharma

Pro investor- previous fund raises by destiny have occurred with 6 months of cash left, so based on cash run out being Feb 2025 they would raise in August next year.

In my opinion, the closer they get to August with no deal, the more nervous investors will be, which will result in a share price decline. If no deal is done by March of next year, then this will certainly be the case.

I’m assuming this 2034 date includes a few years of decommissioning as the remaining recoverable copper is 111,600 tonnes (taken from the CAML website) this equates to less than 8 years mine life. Unless this is an incorrect resource estimate?

I’m looking to potentially invest hear but having done some preliminary research, is it correct that kounrad has less than 8 years mining life left, based on 14k tonnes of yearly output?

Header - It was a little odd, in that kuznetsov said firstly to one question about concentrate supply that they were resolving the issue and then 2 mins later he said the concentrate supply issue has been resolved!

With regard to DP’s previous fund raises, they have been 6 months prior to cash depletion. So I estimate without a deal being down, the next raise will be circa August 2024.

If there is no deal for XF-73 by Feb next year, due to inherent delays in the pharma industry, then investors will be getting nervous and the share price will weaken (my opinion).

On the flip side, if a deal is done with significant upfront payment then the price will rerate significantly.

Challenging market conditions with relatively high interest rates and lack of investment appetite for Uk pharma is the challenge to the deal, as all trial data is positive. But with CT’s many business contacts he may pull a rabbit out.

We should be receiving the half year results next Friday. Based on the supply issues there will be another financial loss. Coupled with the BFS running into next year there will be another fund raise soon. Will decide on the next rns whether to sell up or continue to hold. Tricky as one needs to decipher NBs comments, as much of what he says can’t be taken at face value.

Definite fund raise coming, my thought is in October.

They made a significant loss in 2022 on $6m turnover ($4m loss) with the expectation for an operational profit of 20%.

Unfortunately the pilot plant will never profitable, regardless of logistic costs having come down. Expect a significant discounted fund raise in the coming months.

NB - fcf calculation is based on FAR not being successful entering the tyre market. If this market were able to be penetrated then fcf would likely to be double.

I’ve looked at the financials in some detail and have come to the conclusion that based on current relevant commodity prices to FAR:

Phase 1 £75m fcf. With 40% of this being paid as dividends (£30m). Based on 1,000,000,000 shares outstanding this equates to 30p share price, providing a 10% div yield.

Phase 2 being x 4 so £300m fcf and £120m paid out in dividends. Share price being 120p.

This assumes that there are no further share issues apart from the dilution for the plant build. With phase 1 profits being used for the phase 2 build I can’t see the stock price rising substantially in the short term.

Chazzy, nice thought but do you have any examples where this has happened?

I wonder if FAR is now profitable. Looking at ADVFN, post suggesting possible fund raise. Would be very disappointing if this was the case. Can’t be long now until a RNS release.

Sajy is renowned for making things up, he’s previously been reported to the FCA.

Risq - The expectation was finance would be partly funded through cash flows generated from the pilot plant. This was stated numerous times in various RNS’s last year and prior to 2022.

However they are now not expecting any significant cash flow from this plant in time for the financing that will hopefully be signed off in Q1 next year. The CFO states in the investor meet meeting that finance for the phase 2 build will be funded through debt (banking finance) and equity dilution. A change to the expectation that cash flow from the pilot plant will be used.

£40mill per annum max the deal is worth to destiny. Certainly more details required around these figures in terms of manufacturing costs and operational expenses. That is with complete US market saturation, past experience tells me that market saturation is never achieved especially as there are competing products, currently 4 products being trialled similar to M3. M3 also won’t be the first to market. Admittedly M3 is superior in certain aspects to its competition and not all of these drugs will pass phase 3.

They also said discussions may or may not lead to deal

Didn’t NB state in an RNS last year, “the business is now operating profitably”.

I wouldn’t take his statements as gospel…

Sajy- I see your post has been taken down, have the FCA contacted you?