Member Info for ValueS

I think some people are missing a small but vital detail here. OPEC quotas are always PRODUCTION quotas not EXPORT quotas. Moreover, when the Iraqi oil minister said that he would limit production to 4 mbopd he meant within the areas that are under the direct rule of the central government; I.e. excluding Kurdistan. At least that is how I understood it. Because if he meant to include Kurdistan, then Iraq's total exports would fall below 3 mbopd! Iraq has a population now of over 45 million and needs far more than 1 mbopd for Internal usage. So much so, they are still IMPORTING gasoline and other oil products to plug the gap between local consumption and local refineries output even after the opening of new refineries (such as the 140 kbopd Kerbala Refinery, just last year ) and expanding old ones.

Best Regards ValueS

I don't know. There are 10,000 entries that come up when searching for " MSCI global small cap indexes" so I thought I shan't bother. In any case, I'd be happy if this inclusion brings in just $29.8 m, that is just 0.0002% of the total assets under management MSCI claims to be benchmarked by their indexes.

Best Regards ValueS

"How much money do you think tracks the MSCI Micro Index?"

Well, according to MSCI data as of June 2023, $ 14.9 trillion in assets under management benchmarked to MSCI equity indexes.

https://www.msci.com/our-solutions/indexes

Best Regards ValueS

Thanks @gggg21 for posting the MSCI link which shows that GKP has indeed been added yesterday ( one of only 14 UK stocks). Shorts should be running for the door I would hope.

Best Regards ValueS

"If Iraq and the Kurds can find a safe middle ground together both in politics and contracts, part of the Middle East has a better balance"

That is exactly I and most of GKP investors ( if not all) are hoping/ looking forward for it to happen. It will highly beneficial to Iraq, the Kurds and the investors.

Best Regards ValueS

Hello surfit,

May I also add that under the current circumstances regarding shipping safety in the Red Sea and the Black Sea, Iraq might be able to sell some oil to Europe via Turkey at a premium of $5/barrel or more than it's southern ports to other world markets. Also, the Kurdish export pipeline can actually transport at least 700 kbopd. So, if this pipeline re-open, Iraq's oil revenue would increase by at least $3.5 m extra every single day as compared to selling the same amount of oil via the southern ports! And that is got to be in the best interest of all Iraqis whether Kurdish or not.

Best Regards ValueS

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iraq-committed-opec-will-not-produce-more-than-4-mln-bpd-minister-2024-02-12/

"IRAQ OIL MINISTER SAYS NEGOTIAYIONS WITH OIL COMPANIES OPERATING IN KURDISTAN ON THEIR WAY TO BE RESOLVED"

Let's hope it is true this time and not another false dawn!

Best Regards ValueS

Sorry, make that 1.05p premium charged. Fair enough.

07-Feb-24 12:59:03 101.00 259,326 Unknown* 261.92k O

And was reported as an unknown by LSE software despite the fact that the ask was 99.95p! Only 0.05p premium was charged! Good work if you can have it.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Europe-Sours-on-Middle-Eastern-Crude-Oil.html

Re-opeopening the ITP could help a lot here.

Best Regards ValueS

"debt financiers have to be protected from a dwindling equity base"

Forgive me if I sound naive to you. But, first of all, GKP has no debt. Secondly, I don't understand what you mean by " equity base". To me 'equity' is still the same regardless of how many shares it's been divided into. The cash that was used to reduce the share count in a buyback ought to be 'excess cash' that MUST be returned to shareholders by whatever means and is normally (renewed by future)/ (created by) positive cashflow.

Best Regards ValueS

I do feel that Ian isn't a fan of buybacks, but he did pay a record amount of dividend. No difference between the two as far as I am concerned, as they are convertible to each other. Is his replacement a fan of buybacks? Time will tell I guess.

Best Regards ValueS

Thank you for the reply @FCFY, but in your previous post you referred to HY23 results; hence my responce.

Best Regards ValueS

@ Nobull,

Thanks for the reply. That is the shareholders issue to consider. Let them decide what to do with a given return of capital via buyback, just give them the option.

@FCFY

"The balance of $82m is the same as in Aug 2023 - See half year results."

No it was not, it was $80 m:

"The Company’s cash balance as at 8 August 2023 was $80 million with no outstanding debt"

 I was happy in Dec23 with the update then regarding the cash balance, not so in Jan 24!

Best Regards ValueS

"on the assumption cash coming in from local sales can reasonably be expected to roughly match monthly outgoings."

Even with local sales rate of a paltry 21.6 kbopd and a low realised price of just $27/bbl as the latest RNS reported for Jan24, Gkp gets $6.5 m per month! So I am furious because the cash balance has dropped by $3 m since the previous update just over a month ago, despite the fact that the revenue exceeds the proclaimed monthly cost of $6 m!

There is no liquidity problem! And Gkp does not need to keep the whole $82 m of cash, sitting at the bank, doing nothing. IMO, just $20-30 m will do to solve this imaginary "liquidity problem".

Secondly, I totally reject your analogy of buybacks with sexual diseases. You see, biology and medicine is a totally different discipline than that of finance and accounting!

Thirdly, I totally agree with PUTUP that a buyback is value neutral as far as the company is concerned. As for the shareholders, they can convert the buyback into a dividend by simply selling some of their shares without affecting their % holding, anytime they wish to do so (not nanoseconds). Furthermore, they could actually make a profit if they manage to sell the said shares higher than the VWAP achieved by the buyback ( or a loss if lower).

Best Regards ValueS

Unpaid invoices = $151 m

Unrecovered costs ( CRP) c. $49 m

Cash balance = $82 m

Total = $282 m = £221.07 m = 99.39 p per share.

A perfect time for a buyback?

Gkp in the green now, it was red when I read the article!

Today's jump in oil prices is due to China according to reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-2023-crude-oil-imports-hit-record-fuel-demand-recovers-2024-01-12/

Still a red day for GKP!!

Best Regards ValueS

"Does anyone have any figures for the % of net profit/Rev of the Kurdistan contracts Vs the % of net profit from the Iraq contracts?"

There is no 'fixed' % in the "Iraq contracts", but there is 'fixed' amount of $/bbl the IOC gets from its production, and that amount varies considerably from contract to contract. Given that it is fixed regardless of poo, the % varies inversely to poo. A seperate mechanism is made for Cost Recovery.

As far as Shaikan PSC with MNR goes, GKP gets 36% of gross sales as mentioned in the RNS, 80% of which is from Cost Recovery stream and the remaining 20% is from the Profit Oil stream.

For example, if production = 30 kbopd and the average realised price = $30 in a 30 days month, then :

Gkp payment = 0.36*30^3/1000 = $9.72 m.

And it comes from 2 streams:

Cost Recovery stream = $7.776 m (28.8% of sales)

Profit Oil stream = $1.944 m (7.2% of sales)

Unlike what you called "Iraq contracts", the actual amount is proportional to poo.

Best Regards ValueS