Member Info for ValueS

I don't think its about the re-opeopening of the pipeline, if it is, we'll be in the 140s at least! Its about Brent turning bullish again, higher Brent means larger local sales volumes at better prices. This is just a guess, I could be wrong.

Gkp has the capacity to produce 55 kbopd and possibly more if there is market for it. Gkp has already proved it can do so, and that is a fact!

Best Regards ValueS

"No where close to 55k bopd. Poor performance to drop to 21k."

Volumes of local sales very disappointing, even worse than most conservative estimates. Now the shorts making money.

Best Regards ValueS

Well spotted @TM. Thanks for the reminder. I forgot all about that! However, it could be Friday the 15th or (or Monday the 18th ?) the latest.

Best Regards ValueS

After receiving c. 132p per share worth of dividends, I can claim that I managed to offset all my losses against Gkp itself. The average price of my Gkp holding after restructuring and 100:1 consolidation completed was 172.xx p as I applied for the maximum oo shares and got 22 oo shares for each share held pre-restructuring.

Best Regards ValueS

Possibly a new or existing institutional investor countering the shorts. I noticed several consecutive (usually 5 of them) 10k share buys over the past few days. This can't be by individual retail buyer(s), unless the individual is very wealthy.

Best regards ValueS

I did think the FGI has a political interest in keeping the KRG under severe pressure to limit the region's autonomy as much as possible. They also need to abide by OPEC production quota, so keeping Kurdish production down is quite convenient way to do it. Words like 'brothers' and 'partners' are just for diplomacy.

Https://youtu.be/syoN4Siomrw?si=vTSle5foXgyhhxd5

Interesting! Was Iraq the most volatile producer, but not anymore?

Big sells more like it. 200,00 shares were sold significantly below the best bid at 13:28:24 @ 123.5p.

Sorts at it again?

Currently (while the R factor between 1&2, realised average price = $30) Gkp gets a net of $10.8 a barrel (36% - rule of thump). However, that actually consists of 2 parts:

1 - 80% ( = $8.64 a barrel ) is cost recovery, or so called cost oil, no medals for that just our own money back .

2 - 20% ( = $2.16 a barrel ) is the so called profit oil, from which comes our profit after accounting for non-recoverable corporate costs.

Best Regards ValueS

"theoryman filtered, aggressive and disingenuous."

Paul, I was a bit mystified about 10 years ago how your simple business of selling second hand washing machines collapsed. I am no nolonger mystified.

Hopefully, far more than £4. The political risk is hugely reduced ( if not removed ), Brent is nearing 100 and production at largest rate ever!

"GKP can't invoice for Cost Recovery beyond the balance remaining after invoicing."

Thanks PUTUP. I'd like to dispute that but I don't know how except to say that it would be incredibly vicious (if not damn hostile) if GKP is prevented from invoicing for yet unpaid costs even if said costs had been invoiced (but still not paid) before.

Best Regards ValueS

For now (40% co), only production related costs need to be deducted from the FCF figures quoted.

For ex. If opex = $4/barrel, production = 30.6 kbopd for Sept, then production cost = $3.67 shared between MOL:GKP, 1:4.

Shaikan should produce more than 55 kbopd by the end of October! At $30 that is more than $18.1 m net monthly payment to GKP! Dividend payment soon afterwards? 🙏

Best Regards ValueS

Wow, I'm just back from lunch and I can't believe my eyes looking @ todays price action! And news. Just imagine what happens when the pipeline does actually open.

Best Regards ValueS

As far as Shaikan crude is concerned, trucking via Ibrahim Khalil border crossing (west of Zakho) is much more direct and convenient route to Turky.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/4HRC%2B486+Ibrahim+Khalil+Border+Crossing,+Zakho,+Iraq/@37.1402875,42.5707656,17z/data=!4m14!1m7!3m6!1s0x40091a6e00c2382b:0x95fc05a50a3b7b9a!2s4HRC%2B486,+Zakho,+Iraq!8m2!3d37.139472!4d42.5710728!16s%2Fg%2F11bytp73wq!3m5!1s0x40091a6e00c2382b:0xd5bd4f7c73073435!8m2!3d37.1402875!4d42.5707656!16s%2Fm%2F07sbjj6?hl=en

Best Regards ValueS

" Unless you think the business is failed and you just want out..."

No, it's mainly because I think further investment in Shaikan should be stopped until all arrears are paid and the contractual and legal situation fully settled with clear and stable route to market. We can't continue like this with a new crisis unfolding at every turn.

Meanwhile, risk takers must get rewarded, handsomely.

Best Regards ValueS

Straycat, I did mention a positive cashflow of at least $2 m/m. Put in other words, GKP keeps the $80 m cash balance intact. Just in case!

Best Regards ValueS

A redistribution of $25 m would really be a sensible idea (if not a must) if GKP can achieve a positive monthly cashflow of at least $2 m.

I personally prefer a buyback (for cancelation). With current SP roughly 10% higher than the OO price but the £/$ is about 10% lower than it was in 2016, it makes a perfect match with the OO equity issued in 2016!

A dividend, of course, would be equally good if it gets re-invested by the recipients.

Best Regards ValueS