Member Info for ValueS

I think these are only the (American) institutions that are required to report to the SEC.

I'm not interested in Anfill's post, I don't like to respond to innumerate posters.

I'm not sure what you mean. Is it about availability of buyers or trucks or ability to fill the trucks.

"I'm not sure it will be "easy" to get to 35k"

I'm not sure why is that the case?

Remember they were producing 55k before the pipeline was shut, AND SH -18 drilling was still going on while SH-17 production was restricted because of flow-line sharing. Gkp previously informed via an earlier RNS that SH-18 drilling was complete and the flow line sharing issue was resolved. I think therefore, it is reasonable to expect a maximum production capacity for the Shaikan oil-field far higher than even the 55 k figure. Capped only by the processing capacity available.

Best Regards ValueS

"It's now time for KRG to reciprocate"

Reciprocate? Do you really expect the KRG to reciprocate!?🤔

From the RNS:

"Cash balance of $82.1 million at 30 August 2023 with no debt

o  Includes GKP's entitlement for local crude sales and $8 million related to buyer advance payments collected by GKP"

I'd suggest you re-calculate.

Volume of oil from 19/07 to 29/08 = 535,600 barrels

Roughly 37% to GKP @ $30/bbl, about $6m.

Best Regards ValueS

They have robbed us before and they are robbing us now. Dibn't they take away the Sheik Adi field from us and charged us $10 m for the privilege? Using our financial inability to develop the field which they were the prime reason for it as an execuse?

Correction: persuaded not peuaded

Could be a long shot. But, if a long-term agreement is made between the Kerbala refinery and the KRG to buy Shaikan crude at a fair price, with the conscent of SOMO, then the pipeline issue becomes immaterial!

The Kerbala Province local government is powerfull enough, I think, to lobby the FGI to approve such an agreement. They have very influential politicians such as Maliki who could be peuaded with the idea if presented with a big enough tin of biscuits! And they may have worked before to push through the Kerbala Airport as well as the Kerbala Refinery projects!🙃

Have I let my imagination run too wild? 😵‍💫

Best regards ValueS

Thanks for the confirmation PUTUP, enjoy the beach!

"at the end of the year we are still owed CRP - somewhere in the region of 13p per share assuming a full return to normality in the 4Q and ignoring receivables."

I can't agree with the above because the CRP by definition is the sum of costs that are yet to be paid back, and since the receivables are unpaid invoices which is made up largely from CO stream, then that part of the CRP should remain in the CRP until they are paid. So, if say $120 m out of the $151m unpaid invoices come from the CRP, then that sum is still in the CRP! And it represens about 80% of the estimated (51p ?) per FD share.

Therefore, as I see it it's still the CRP what really matters not the receivables.

Best Regards ValueS

No it is still busy:

11-Aug-23 13:56:38 105.01 124,724 Buy*

Have a good weekend everyone!

With 11.7 kbopd rate of production and $17/bbl realised local price, I get a figure of only $2.13 m per month net to GKP! Assuming 26% of 60% po as contractor share and 56% net to gkp of that stream with 20% CBC.

So, not much profit there. But local sales do help recover cash from the CRP at a rate of $1.747 m per month.

Best Regards ValueS

The question to me is past payments. Once GKP restarts production, even just for local sales , then payments must restart also. In the order they ought to be. From October22 to March 23 first then for production afterwards!

If the payer (whoever it is may be), decided that they will only pay from the restart with the past payments arranged separately. Then, according to the assumption made regarding production rate and price, a quick calculation showed a monthly payment of 10 m US Dollars. Out of which a generous 4m goes back to the CRP as opex+ very small capex. Leaving 6m in Gkp's A/C. This is enough for Gkp to go on indefinitely IMO.

Best Regards ValueS

Just 24m US Dollars enough to last for at least 4 months. It doesn't has to be borrowed, a rights issue could be sufficient. Anyway, that is more than 15 months away to worry about, why worry about it now.

Let's hope he hasn't decided to go and have a meeting with St Peters given the size of his Gkp holding, some 200,000 shares he once told us was it? That is a loss of £410,000 from £3.20 on current price.

Well, in case he has, let's learn how to plant rosemary in remembrance 🥺 :

https://youtu.be/frslls1wPm0

Now that looks more promising in the field of Iraqi politics! Niceties won't do. Only serious actions produce serious responces. Sudani's government need the backing of Kurdish MPs, without that it could fall.

BTW I've noticed that the LSE has increased the market size for GKP to 15,000 (from 7,500) and it looks to me (though I'm not sure yet) that the MMs responded by enlarging the spread which should deter day traders hopefully.

Best Regards ValueS

Shareholders are not happy with Ian Weatherdon and the renumeration committee. No surprises there.

"This is not an investment. It's a gamble. It's a binary share with colossal risk and potential reward."

I completely disagree with that. This is not a binary gamble at all. Remember when Shaikan crude used to be trucked to Dotriol (not Ceyhan) and sold in the world market as astand alone product in its own right. A good price was achieved ; about Brent-23. And Gkp was making profit, recovering costs and achieving FCF even when Brent was below 50. All needed now is for the right person to make the right decision to resume buissinus as normal.

Best Regards ValueS

It is baffling me as well. GKP used to truck all its production before the connection to the export pipe, which was achieved just few years ago; 2019-2020 from memory.

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Adopts-Record-153-Billion-Budget-Based-On-70-Oil-Price.html